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A Trillion Reasons To Ignore Those CBO
Projections About The 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

Original Article

Posted By: RockyTCB, 6/5/2025 9:04:05 AM

When the Congressional Budget Office reported that the Republicans’ “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill would boost deficits and throw millions off insurance rolls, it was treated as gospel truth. The CBO is, after all, a “non-partisan” agency, staffed by just-the-facts-ma’am budget and economic experts who don’t have any axes to grind. Maybe that’s true. But it’s not partisan bias that is the problem. It’s the CBO’s terrible track record when it comes to predicting the impact of tax and health care policies. By the CBO’s accounting, the House reconciliation bill would cut tax revenue by $3.7 trillion

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Reply 1 - Posted by: bpl40 6/5/2025 9:22:01 AM (No. 1960146)
This ‘projection’ is fundamentally flawed. It is based on the assumption that the money you earned primarily belongs to the government. You are merely allowed whatever the convenience of bureaucrats and politicians will permit. I thought we voted that out on Nov 5.
10 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: NamVet70 6/5/2025 9:32:10 AM (No. 1960157)
Any scoring of the effect of taxes is deeply flawed if it assumes that taxation doesn't influence the economy. The CBO doesn't do dynamic scoring, ie evaluating the effect raising or lowering taxes has on the economy. This effect is very large and every time taxes have been reduced the economy has in response grown to generate greater tax revenue than projected. Until the CBO starts trying to model the influence taxes have on economic growth and applying that to their estimates the CBO is worthless. In fact, the elimination of the CBO would improve the federal budget by removing a non-productive expense.
6 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: wilarrbie 6/5/2025 9:43:24 AM (No. 1960166)
The congressional budgeteers treat monies like apples in a math problem. Nothing happens to apples when you move them from column A to column B. Money, however, in the hands of the taxpayer, goes through multiple transformations and replicates itself in terms of commerce.
5 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: jasonB 6/5/2025 9:45:47 AM (No. 1960168)
I just know that if I ever max out my credit card (sorry, ZERO balance every month) the secret to economic success is to call the CC Co and ask for a no limit raise on the Credit Line and BOOM, spending my way to economic prosperity! It's so easy I should run for office.
7 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua 6/5/2025 10:07:27 AM (No. 1960174)
These articles never once name a person that worked on these reports which should be a red flag. Do an internet search and one finds names, but don't recognize any of them.
3 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: MickTurn 6/5/2025 10:59:07 AM (No. 1960204)
Definition of CBO, Always WRONG!
2 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: RuckusTom 6/5/2025 11:34:20 AM (No. 1960225)
These forecasts are pretty stupid to begin with. If they can make predictions 10 years out, why not 100 years? Two hundred years? One thousand years? Heck, local weathermen can't seem to predict the weather very well more than 2 or 3 days out. What makes the CBO so special to be the gospel for what's going to happen economically a year out, much less 10 years?
4 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: mc squared 6/5/2025 12:18:22 PM (No. 1960248)
The CBO and the IPCC are almost copies of each other. One can't predict the earth's temperature and the other can't predict economic conditions.
1 person likes this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua 6/5/2025 12:24:59 PM (No. 1960251)
Pardon second post... Perhaps DOGE should do its own report on the spending bill. Show all the waste, corruption, and crooked games being played.
2 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: Sully 6/5/2025 12:47:00 PM (No. 1960264)
Ok ok the Cbo cooks their books. I dont care. You HAVE to cut spending not bake it into the cake going forward forever. If the tax cuts do increase revenue they will just spend it on pork!!! Find More pork. Keep it for themselves. Have we learned nothing from US AID? We will never "grow our way" outa pork!!!!!
3 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: DVC 6/5/2025 3:11:29 PM (No. 1960337)
CBO = professional. well paid idiots and Dem political hacks.
0 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: DVC 6/5/2025 3:12:49 PM (No. 1960339)
A round of applause for #3. Well said, sir. Very well said
1 person likes this.

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When the Congressional Budget Office reported that the Republicans’ “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill would boost deficits and throw millions off insurance rolls, it was treated as gospel truth. The CBO is, after all, a “non-partisan” agency, staffed by just-the-facts-ma’am budget and economic experts who don’t have any axes to grind. Maybe that’s true. But it’s not partisan bias that is the problem. It’s the CBO’s terrible track record when it comes to predicting the impact of tax and health care policies. By the CBO’s accounting, the House reconciliation bill would cut tax revenue by $3.7 trillion
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