Virginia Wild Card: Turnout Among Black Voters
Posted By: gaboy, 11/3/2025 1:39:05 AM
The conventional wisdom among most election analysts is that the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial contest between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger will be won by the latter. This consensus is primarily based on a series of polls that purport to show her ahead by comfortable margins. All such surveys, however, necessarily incorporate certain assumptions (snip) If those assumptions are inaccurate, pollsters can end up wiping a lot of egg yolk off their faces. In the Old Dominion, 45 days of early voting has produced a record-breaking turnout — except in localities where most of the electorate consists of black voters.
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The conventional wisdom among most election analysts is that the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial contest between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger will be won by the latter. This consensus is primarily based on a series of polls that purport to show her ahead by comfortable margins. All such surveys, however, necessarily incorporate certain assumptions (snip) If those assumptions are inaccurate, pollsters can end up wiping a lot of egg yolk off their faces. In the Old Dominion, 45 days of early voting has produced a record-breaking turnout — except in localities where most of the electorate consists of black voters.
The ground beneath Democrats' feet is starting to shift.
A government shutdown is not a strategy that works absent the media. The whole point of the exercise is to do something dramatic in order to bring attention and raise awareness of some particular issue. In this case, Democrats decided their issue would be health care. They would shut down the government to make demand Republicans extend Obamacare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year.
For the past few weeks, that strategy has worked pretty well for Democrats for two reasons. First, the shutdown didn't really have much impact right away, especially because President Trump worked to ensure
Government shutdowns are always and everywhere about using government spending —or, really, the restriction of government spending —as political leverage. Sometimes they are used effectively, and sometimes not, but the goal is to impose pain on your negotiating partner and break their will. (Snip)Since politicians are careful to avoid feeling any of the pain directly—they consider themselves essential employees and keep the money flowing into their own pockets—the pain has to be inflicted on others, with the hope that the victims can implore their legislators to give in to demands.
Is John Fetterman Running For President?
15 replies
It is by now blindingly obvious to any rational observer of American politics that the Democratic Party is circling the drain. Depending on which poll you believe, its favorability rating among U.S. adults is somewhere between 23 percent (CNBC) and 34 percent (CBS). Nor is it difficult to divine what has led to this dismal state of affairs — the party has lurched so far to the left that most of its iconic leaders would be regarded as too conservative to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) defied the advice of its own drug safety experts to warn pregnant women about Tylenol for nearly a decade, internal reports and presentations obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation reveal.
FDA rank-and-file scientists repeatedly recommended the agency release information about Tylenol in pregnancy across three scientific reviews conducted in 2016, 2019, 2022 and two memos, one from the FDA’s maternal health division in 2016 and one from the FDA’s urological health division in 2017.
Muslims are blasting Zohran Mamdani’s association with controversial Imam Siraj Wahhaj, warning that legitimizing the former terror suspect could fuel radical extremism.
“I am particularly concerned to see mosques used as political rallying platforms in the free and democratic United States,” said Dalia Ziada, a Muslim scholar and fellow at the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy.
“By embracing Wahhaj, Zohran Mamdani is sidelining moderate Muslims and normalizing an extremist ideology that once inspired terror on American soil and still fuels radicalization within segments of the Muslim community today,” she told Fox News.
This is going to be the question for the next who knows how long.
Not 'will Zelensky ever talk Trump into giving him the big guns'...nope.
Not 'will there ever be an agreement Hamas wasn't already planning to break when they agreed'...nope.
Not 'does anyone give a rip about anything the WNBA does or its players'...nope.
NOPE
The unanswerable question on everyone's minds is 'how long can new CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss continue to cruelly torture the news division staff at the network before they collapse from the sheer angst and unending mental abuse?'
That's THE question.
Oh, yeah. What honest, devoted progressive
The Ridiculous No Kings Protest
16 replies
It’s difficult to think of a more effective way to illustrate the moral and intellectual emptiness of the American left than to have them march around demanding an end to an institution our founding fathers abolished 250 years ago. This is how the official “No Kings” website described what happened on Saturday: “On October 18, more than seven million of us rose up at more than 2,700 events in all 50 states, DC, and cities worldwide to say: America has no kings, and the power belongs to the people.” These folks are a little late to the party.
Mikie Sherrill keeps changing her story
about Naval Academy cheating scandal:
‘I don’t buy it’ 9 replies
about Naval Academy cheating scandal:
‘I don’t buy it’ 9 replies
Mikie Sherrill can’t keep her story straight.
The New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee keeps changing her account of her involvement in an infamous 1990s US Naval Academy cheating scandal — and alumni don’t believe her latest explanation.
“I don’t buy it, and I’m kind of speaking on behalf of actually a lot of classmates that reached out to me,” Brent Sadler, who graduated from the academy in 1994, the same class as Sherrill, and serves as a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told The Post.Sherrill last month confirmed she didn’t walk during her class’s commencement and claimed she was penalized because she “didn’t turn in some of my classmates.”
Trump Proved ‘Experts’ Wrong About Tariffs
13 replies
Last April, Paul Krugman wrote the following about the reciprocal tariffs President Trump had just announced: “This is a much bigger shock to the economy than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930.” Krugman trotted out that trite analogy not because he really believed Trump’s tariffs were comparable to Smoot-Hawley, but because he knew his Substack subscribers would vaguely recall reading about the latter in high school and feel intelligent. Six months later it’s blindingly obvious that Trump was right about the tariffs and Krugman’s portentous predictions were utterly moronic.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is getting blasted for admitting Democrats are playing political games with the government shutdown with no regard for the pain it’s inflicting on the American people.In an interview with Punchbowl News, the Democrat leader “was as bullish as he’s ever been about his shutdown strategy,” telling the outlet “every day gets better for us.”
Trump officials and Republican lawmakers slammed Schumer for what they said was a "disgusting and revealing statement."
The list is staggering, really. And one need not go back to January to compile a collection of the most anti-democratic behavior and positions possible, all to save muh democracy. I can fill out this column with stuff just since Friday.
In June of this year, The United States Supreme Court issued a 6-3 decision in Mahmoud V. Taylor, in favor of parents objecting to sexually explicit LGBT material being used in school on religious exemption grounds. The case overturned the decision against both the rights of parents and the 1st Amendment's freedom to practice religion by a district court judge nominated early in Joe Biden's term.
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"Indiana Jones" star Harrison Ford told The Guardian on Friday that he doesn't "know of a greater criminal in history" than President Donald Trump, criticizing him for failing to address climate change.
Ford said to The Guardian that Trump "doesn’t have any policies, he has whims. It scares the s--- out of me. The ignorance, the hubris, the lies, the perfidy. [Trump] knows better, but he’s an instrument of the status quo, and he’s making money, hand over fist, while the world goes to hell in a handbasket."
"It's unbelievable," he added. "I don’t know of a greater criminal in history."
Earlier this month, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) published “Islamophobia: A Guide for U.S. Catholics on Anti-Muslim Bigotry.” Showcased on the USCCB website with a lovely Islamic design cover, this 15-page booklet exhorts Catholics to “address the disturbing phenomenon of anti-Muslim sentiment in our times.”
Introduced by the co-chairs of the National Catholic-Muslim Dialogue (NCMD) — Bishop Elias Lorenzo of Newark and Imam Kareem Irfan — the USCCB declares dire need to counter “the rising tide of anti-Muslim sentiment that has been present for decades.”
Former President Bill Clinton showed up at the finish line of the New York City Marathon on Sunday with a mysterious injury to his nose as he hugged daughter and participant Chelsea.
The 79-year-old ex-president, who suffered a health scare last year that left him hospitalized with a fever and suspected dehydration, was seen with a bandage wrapped around the tip of his nose during his embrace of Chelsea, 45, who has run several marathons in recent years.
It is not immediately clear what caused Clinton’s injury. Accompanying him Sunday to cheer on Chelsea was wife Hillary.
Regrets, Kevin Roberts has a few.
The president of the Heritage Foundation stepped into a maelstrom when he came to the defense of Tucker Carlson this week after Carlson's friendly interview with Nick Fuentes, the 26-year-old white nationalist popular on the far right for his avowedly antisemitic views. It started with a video Roberts posted to X.
“Not as many people as I thought,” he told RealClearPolitics in a Saturday interview, “were ready for a little bit of nuance.”
Roberts told RCP that the backlash has further clarified something that he already believed, namely that antisemitism has become “a much more pronounced problem on part of the right.”
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem is reportedly considering hiring private contractors to locate and track illegal aliens across the country.
According to a leaked DHS procurement document obtained by The Intercept, ICE plans to outsource “Skip Tracing and Process Serving Services” to private firms, providing them with government data on batches of 10,000 immigrants at a time, with potential escalations up to 1,000,000 cases.
The proposal includes an “incentive-based pricing structure” with “monetary bonuses” for high performance, such as pinpointing a target’s address on the first try or successfully locating 90% of assigned individuals within deadlines.
The Schumer Shutdown has been going on for more than a month now.
It started on October 1, and the Senate won't even be able to have another vote on it until Tuesday at the earliest.
The extended shutdown is raising concerns, particularly about funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and how it may be impacting air travel. Fox News Channel's Maria Bartiromo asked Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) on Sunday if he thought the government would open this week, as the shutdown was "seriously impacting the U.S. economy." Cruz had an intelligent take on when it might be over, and why.
Joining at least two other Democrat-run states, Illinois lawmakers passed a bill on Friday prohibiting federal immigration agents from arresting illegal aliens near and around state courthouses.
The Illinois bill, sent to anti-Trump Gov. JB Pritzker for signing, not only seeks to prevent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations inside courthouses but establishes a 1,000-foot “buffer zone” outside of buildings, Capitol News Illinois reported.
The bill also would allow Illinois residents to bring lawsuits against agents whom they allege violated their constitutional rights, including for due process and unreasonable search and seizures.
On Saturday, Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser announced an emergency order, with a city-wide curfew for anyone under 18, beginning Saturday night.
The curfew will go into effect at 11pm Nov. 1, through 6am the next morning, and will continue nightly until Nov. 5. The order gives Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith the power to identify “high risk” areas in the city, where she can begin the curfew as early as 6pm. (image)
The emergency action by the DC Mayor is in response to chaos in the streets in/around the Navy Yard area where five teens were arrested and the National Guard were forced to break up several fights
WASHINGTON — Democrats are bracing for the possible retirement of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, one of the party’s most powerful, popular and effective leaders, who served as chief antagonist to President Donald Trump during his first term and has quietly counseled Democrats as they take on Trump in his second term.
She is expected to make an announcement about her future after Tuesday’s elections, when voters will consider a ballot measure, known as “Proposition 50,” that would redraw the state’s congressional lines. Pelosi is a prominent proponent of the plan, which Democrats hope would net them several seats in next year’s midterm elections.
Young children at a non-public charter school sanctioned by the Ohio Department of Education are taught to memorize sections of the Quran.
The Islamic Center of Mason Learning Academy was founded by Anila Zindani, a mother who wanted to teach her son the Islamic religious text.
“Oh my God, it means the whole world to me,” she said in an interview with WCPO-TV. “This school is really special.” A reporter for the outlet noted that the mosque adjacent to the school is currently undergoing a $12 million expansion, which will include new classrooms for the school. They are still raising millions of dollars for the project.
Donald Trump has demanded that the Senate abolish the filibuster. [Truth]
"THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER," Trump demanded.
The Senate Republicans politely declined to cooperate. A spokesman for Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune remained unmoved: “Leader Thune’s position on the importance of the legislative filibuster is unchanged." Thune has consistently spoken against ending the filibuster or reforming it.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who doesn't have stake in the debate, nevertheless pointed out the consequences of getting rid of the filibuster, listing action items the Democrats would be able to pass with a simple majority.
“They would pack the Supreme Court,
Former CIA Director John Brennan snapped at a man who confronted him for signing the infamous letter in 2020 that claimed the bombshell Hunter Biden email scandal exposed by The Post had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”
Brennan, 70, grew visibly incensed and angrily got in the face of the man who pressed about the letter, poking him on the chest repeatedly before backing off.
“You misrepresented that,” Brennan shouted at conservative national security consultant Thomas Speciale during the tense clash.
“We never said it was disinformation; we said it was Russian influence operations, which is what they do. There’s a big difference,” he added.