Johns Hopkins economist predicts ‘whopper’
of a recession in 2023 — and points
to one key economic reading the Fed is missing
Fortune,
by
Chloe Taylor
Original Article
Posted By: PageTurner,
8/31/2022 6:11:22 PM
Americans are worried a recession is looming—and according to a top economist, they ought to be.
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said this week that he believes the U.S. is heading for a “whopper” of a recession next year.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday, Hanke argued that a major economic downturn had been made inevitable due to U.S. money supply soaring and stagnating.
“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” he said.
Just in time for the new Republican House to get blamed by the media!
15 people like this.
The Fed isn't missing anything, they are just omitting this part on purpose.
10 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
crashnburn 8/31/2022 6:34:11 PM (No. 1264726)
What planet is he from? Two quarters of negative economic growth signal inflation, and we just completed the second quarter of negative economic growth.
What we are actually looking at is stagflation. Inflation with a stagnant, or worse, economy. My only surprise is it took so long to get here.
6 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Axeman 8/31/2022 6:36:40 PM (No. 1264727)
How do I short this news? What will fall the most, the fastest?
2 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
stablemoney 8/31/2022 7:15:39 PM (No. 1264757)
We are in a recession now. I suggest the professor not worry about M2 not expanding. Biden just ok'ed $1T in student loan forgiveness. The Fed will need to finance that with money printing, and Biden isn't finished with spending. I sure as the day am not worried that we are not going to have enough money.
4 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
LanceLink1 8/31/2022 7:34:53 PM (No. 1264785)
The economy is doing great. No joke. I'm not kidding. We are not in a recession. I'm not kidding. No joke. Its these ultra maga semi fascists racists. I won't deal with them. No joke.
And that my friends is what passes as "presidential".
We have a pos squatting in the white house.
12 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
Dodge Boy 8/31/2022 7:42:51 PM (No. 1264795)
What is today's recession called then?
3 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
Anti-DemocRAT 8/31/2022 7:47:06 PM (No. 1264800)
I have always understood the left has no economic sense. Not really their faults, there is simply something wrong with their brains. I thought their leadership thought they could tax and spend us out of their mess.
3 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Starboard_side 8/31/2022 7:48:43 PM (No. 1264801)
I can guarantee you if Trump was in the WH all of these hand-wringing, excuse-making economists would be declaring we are in a full-blown recession right now.
But, since they wanted Biden in the WH and the Democrat's controlling the House and Senate (by tie vote from VP), they are making excuses, rationalizations and justifications to avoid putting the blame on the Democrats, and seemingly influencing the November elections.
4 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
davew 8/31/2022 8:09:29 PM (No. 1264820)
This article is so badly written I don't know where to begin. The first part explains that expansion of M2 supply is inflationary. The second part explains that the M2 expansion has stopped which should be a good thing since it means that inflation will now subside as goods and services catch up with the excess cash in the system.
What I think they meant to say was that the M2 "velocity" is historically low which typically indicates that people are not spending on goods and services because the lack confidence in the future. This will cause businesses to contract as demand declines and would likely result in a recession.
The main reason people are not spending on discressionary items is that they are afraid they won't be able to pay for necessities like gas and groceries and are hoarding any excess cash they have in savings. If the supply chain issues and Russia's extortion of Europe over oil and natural gas can be resolved by competent leadership (??) prices will fall and confidence in the future will return. This will appear as an increase in the M2 velocity, not the amount of currency in circulation.
4 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
downnout 8/31/2022 8:37:14 PM (No. 1264862)
Unless the labor unions and the railroads settle their differences by September 15th there will be a strike. If you think the supply chain is bad now it will be much, much worse without rail transport.
5 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
MDConservative 8/31/2022 11:16:02 PM (No. 1264972)
FTA: "We had [that M2 growth] starting with COVID in February of 2020. We had an unprecedented growth in the money supply in the United States, and that is why we are having inflation now—and that’s why, by the way, we will continue to have inflation through 2023 going into probably 2024.”
We were fighting a war on COVIDS and spent $14 TRILLION in quick bi-partisan order...and note the date. Biden wasn't in office. That's not trashing PDT; it's simple fact. The idea that inflation will be tamed by 2024 is nonsense. Government hasn't the guts to do what must be done. The Inflation Reduction Act is another stimulus...and that's gas on the fire.
1 person likes this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
TXknitter 8/31/2022 11:33:02 PM (No. 1264988)
So true what #1 says too! I believe the Republican House leadership to be (I am not hopeful we will have anything great) is nervous and they have every right to be. A lot we will expect of that new majority and they better dang well work hard and deliver.
2 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
Tet Vet 68 9/1/2022 2:02:02 AM (No. 1265049)
Well duh the chickens are coming to roost
0 people like this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
judy 9/1/2022 2:10:19 AM (No. 1265050)
Bidens spending is out if control…He causes billions in losses for the unreal pull out in Afghanistan, billions housing illegals because of open borders, constantly passing trillion $$ spending bills, billions to Ukraine…none of this would have happened under Trump.
1 person likes this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
franq 9/1/2022 6:01:48 AM (No. 1265115)
"....hoarding any excess cash they have in savings." Sound like a plan to me. Who wants monthly payments out the wazoo? No, I prefer a paid-off house and cars. At my age, "toys" mean nothing. Discressionary [sic] spending is a thing of the past. Wait until digital currency is implemented. Watch your choices evaporate.
0 people like this.
Reply 17 - Posted by:
homefry 9/1/2022 7:25:14 AM (No. 1265165)
"MISSING" my big ol' hairy butt. Ignoring is a better word.
0 people like this.
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Unlike Krugman, this guy knows what he is talking about. He predicted the current inflation exactly as it came at exactly the levels it came.