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Recession May Be ((IS) Here

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Posted By: homefry, 7/19/2022 7:11:37 AM

The debate about recession risk is pointless. We are already in a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States declined at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a 1.5% contraction in the second quarter. But the underlying figures are scarier. According to the Atlanta Fed, “the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5% on July 15, down from -1.2% on July 8”. That is an enormous negative change, -0.3% of GDP, in one week.

Comments:

2 consecutive quarters of negative growth = recession. OR, put dim-0s in power = recession.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: mifla 7/19/2022 7:41:12 AM (No. 1220841)
And then Joe will tell us why a recession is a really a good thing that we should be thanking him for.
7 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: F15 Gork 7/19/2022 7:47:53 AM (No. 1220849)
When things were really bad, Lincoln reportedly said, “The bottom has come out of the tub”. We are there baby. We are there.
3 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: bpl40 7/19/2022 8:09:02 AM (No. 1220885)
They will deny it first. Grudgingly admit it second. And blame Republicans, Trump and Systemic Racism third.
6 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Clinger 7/19/2022 8:11:31 AM (No. 1220890)
Now we are officially in a recession but just term that lacks context. A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. We avoided the official designation because our economy went from very good to shut down in less than a quarter with the COVID lockdowns well below the pre-COVID boom levels. Then we began to grow from that bottom. Enter Biden who inherited a relatively mediocre but substantially recovering economy that still had a low bar to from which to sustain growth yet still falling far short of pre-COVID levels. And without lockdowns he screwed that up and we have officially entered a recession from a middle of a recovery caused by a deliberate shutdown. That is simply stunning. This is no garden variety recession this took failure on an epic scale. We could have done the Obama thing and throttled the economy from crash levels and still eked out minuscule growth and claiming unprecedented consecutive quarters of growth without ever getting above a lousy stinking economy because the starting point was so low. But no, we actually crashed from a crash under Biden.
3 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: mean Gene 7/19/2022 9:15:47 AM (No. 1220948)
joe's Board has delayed its findings until July 28th. IF that board declares this to be a recession, then it is a recession. But joe's Board is unlikely to do that.
2 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua 7/19/2022 9:26:14 AM (No. 1220956)
It's been here for quite some time. Democrats are probably hoping for a Republican victory so they can blame them for the recession. Something to consider. If our problems become unfixable, don't replace our 'leadership'. Let them stay in office. Wrap the whole stinking mess like a chain around their collective throats, and watch it choke the life out of them.
3 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: jeffkinnh 7/19/2022 9:41:28 AM (No. 1220969)
By the November elections the recession will be confirmed. I wonder how the media will try to handle the news? Massive inflation, recession, cost for heating will be through the roof this winter causing problems for low income households, and all of it clearly tied to Brandon's idiotic policies. The media will approach it as if Brandon isn't DOING enough to fix the problem but won't question the inflationary spending and punitive energy policies that CAUSED it. Here's the drumbeat message for Conservatives: 1. Inflation is caused by government spending more money than it has, i.e. deficit spending. Period. 2. The rise in the cost of energy is the EXPECTED RESULT of environmental climate change policy. And it will only get worse as "green" energy sources find it IMPOSSIBLE to fill in for oil and gas. Brandon's ship of fools and the media are going to desperately cause confusion about the causes of inflation. Some of those things MAY have had some effect. The largest cause, by far, was Brandon's COVID relief plan, which was unnecessary. The public has repeatedly said that they support environmental awareness and thoughtful actions to protect the environment. However, they are NOT willing to spend any money to achieve the results. The massive costs impacts are exactly what the public has rejected. Brandon's flowery, save-the-world speeches are NOT convincing. He is trying to sell us something we DO NOT WANT TO BUY. Further, all the progressive plans come with such price tags and their arguments that we need to pay the bill have been rejected. Brandon slammed the cost down our throats. He OWNS this and we can't let the voters forget it. The fact that the actions they are taking are doomed to fail are piling stupidity on top of failure.
3 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: MDConservative 7/19/2022 11:33:32 AM (No. 1221113)
Recession is inevitable. Inflation generally causes prices to rise beyond the consumer's reach. (One problem found in the last great inflation was that indexing payouts of r pensions and Social Security, etc. delayed the necessary recession by adding more money to the consumer market to offset the price rise.) Until price and demand meet at some point, there will either be shortages (people buying cheap stuff in excess), or unaffordability (shelves full of to-expensive stuff). I'd love to hear how a recessionary cycle can be avoided after pumping $14 TRILLION into our economy, mostly with no actual value. More stimulus? Higher COLAs for everyone? Wage and Price controls? The medicine for inflation is bitter with some painful side effects. When would you like to take it?
0 people like this.

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The debate about recession risk is pointless. We are already in a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States declined at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a 1.5% contraction in the second quarter. But the underlying figures are scarier. According to the Atlanta Fed, “the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5% on July 15, down from -1.2% on July 8”. That is an enormous negative change, -0.3% of GDP, in one week.
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