The Butler Probabilities
Posted By: sagman, 7/23/2025 7:07:51 AM
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
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The Butler Probabilities
20 replies
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
It doesn’t look like it’s some nefarious plot. It’s not a Deep State move, though one could probably argue otherwise. Why is Ronald Rowe, the former acting director of the Secret Service, still on the agency’s payroll? Susan Crabtree had a lengthy piece about this odd non-departure. It turns out that he could be using sick leave, which has no payout, to stay on at the Secret Service. However, there are also regulatory protections in place for senior political appointments that are set to expire after 120 days.
Just Bomb Iran Already
4 replies
I know it’s not fashionable among some on the right, but we have a moral and strategic obligation to attack Iran right now. Not later. Not down the road, after more bogus negotiations with these glorified bazaar merchants who specialize in stringing along credulous Westerners until they get what they want. Today. We have the forces in place, and if we don’t do it, they’re going to end up with the bomb.They cannot end up with the bomb. They’ll use it. It’s hard to mutually assure destruction with a psychotic death cult.
In Defense of Justice Amy Coney Barrett
12 replies
Yesterday, Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the 5–4 majority that ruled against President Trump in the case of Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition. This has occasioned a great deal of criticism of Barrett from the right — to the point at which many commentators have felt comfortable describing her as a “mistake,” or even as a “DEI hire.”
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This is nonsense. Barrett is a terrific justice . .
‘Now Let Him Enforce It’
7 replies
There’s a famous quote on the subject of judicial power — that is, real judicial power, and not just the imagined kind that we’ve grown accustomed to accepting in a legalistic society.
It comes courtesy — though we’re told it’s an apocryphal quotation — of Andrew Jackson, our 7th president.
Jackson was informed of the Supreme Court’s decision in an 1832 case, Worcester v. Georgia, which involved a complicated set of circumstances by which a missionary to the Cherokee Nation was imprisoned for violating a state law that he claimed was non-binding on sovereign Indian territory.
President Trump ordered the Secret Service on Friday to provide him “every bit of information” about his two would-be assassins. “I’m entitled to know,” he told The Post. “I want to find out about the two assassins. . . . Why did the one guy have six cell phones and why did the other guy have [foreign] apps?“No more holding back because of Biden. . . . I’m entitled to know. And they held it back long enough.
“No excuses. Six cellphones were allegedly found in the car of Ryan Routh, the 59-year-old suspect in the second assassination attempt on Trump last September ....
Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) claimed Friday on MSNBC’s “The Reid Out” that Elon Musk and President Donald Trump were conducting a “rapidly expanding and accelerating coup.”
Raskin said, “If the courts move with dispatch, they might be able to prevent a lot of damage from being inflicted. But nobody should normalize what’s going on here. We’ve got the wealthiest man in the world who cannot be president because he was born in apartheid South Africa and then made his way to Canada and then to America because he can’t be president, except if he can buy himself a de facto presidency . . .
White House: Our Attempts at Keeping
Iran from Getting Nukes Through Diplomacy
‘Didn’t Work’ 37 replies
Iran from Getting Nukes Through Diplomacy
‘Didn’t Work’ 37 replies
On Friday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “The Story,” White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby stated that Iran will not be allowed to get a nuclear weapons capability, and “We had tried to do this through diplomacy. Obviously, that didn’t work, because the Iranians were not willing to negotiate in good faith.”
Alan Ritchson, the star of Amazon’s hit show, Reacher, claims to be “very disturbed” that police officers can get away with murdering people “all the time” and are never held accountable for it.
The 41-year-old actor cast his accusation about lawless police officers in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter last week in which he made a series of admissions of his extreme views.
What DeSantis Won’t Admit
12 replies
The Monday headline on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the New York Times said, unintentionally, exactly what is wrong with the GOP Establishment’s response to former President Donald Trump. The headline:
DeSantis Bluntly Acknowledges Trump’s 2020 Defeat: ‘Of Course He Lost’
The Times reports this:
Mr. DeSantis, who is polling well behind Mr. Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, had acknowledged on Friday that the former president’s false theories about a rigged 2020 election were “unsubstantiated.”
Say what? Allegations that the 2020 election were rigged are “unsubstantiated.” Really?
Can Ron DeSantis Win?
34 replies
Of course, Ron DeSantis can come back and win. Anybody in the race can win – we saw Trump come back in 2016 when most everyone wrote him off in the general. Now it’s the Florida governor’s turn to be written off, but he’s not exactly in the same place that Trump was. DeSantis is a strong second right now. For him, it’s not a matter of a miracle happening, threading a bunch of needles to win the general when rational betters would bet against you like in 2016. No, Ron DeSantis has a plan, and there’s a method to his muddling through.
I floated an idea about the relative value of having Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential race in a Facebook post a little over a week ago, and for whatever reason it was one of the few things I’ve put on that platform that hasn’t been suppressed in the past several months. [Snip] Bear in mind, I’m not suggesting that you have to vote for DeSantis. I’m simply advocating for the positive properties of having DeSantis around as at least a second option in this presidential race on the Republican side.
And I’m a Vivek Ramaswamy fan. I’ve loved most of what Ramaswamy has said on the campaign trail.
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Barack Obama has broken his silence on calls from Donald Trump for him to be prosecuted by unequivocally rejecting his successor’s accusations that he tried to engineer a “coup” following Trump’s 2016 election victory by “manufacturing” evidence of Russian interference.
Obama’s office took the unusual step of issuing an emphatic refutation after Trump told reporters that his predecessor had “[tried] to lead a coup” against him and was guilty of “treason” over intelligence assessments suggesting that Russia had intervened to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in the campaign.
“Out of respect for the office of the presidency,
Stephen Colbert wants you to believe he's some kind of martyred truth-teller, canceled by the evil corporate overlords for daring to speak truth to power about Donald Trump.
He’s not.
It's a compelling narrative, if you're the type who still thinks late-night comedy hosts are brave crusaders rather than overpaid establishment mouthpieces. But, rather than accept reality, he’s leaning into the preferred narrative that he’s being silenced and that it’s President Trump’s fault.
Monday on CNN’s “The Lead,” Axios reporter Alex Thompson said Hunter Biden revealing his father, President Joe Biden, was on Ambien was “really striking.”
Host Jake Tapper said, “Hunter made headlines of his own in a more than three-hour-long interview on a podcast, touching on a number of issues, including the 2024 campaign. He vehemently defended his father while revealing a new detail about the debate.”
Hunter Biden said, “I know exactly what happened at that debate. He flew around the world basically and the mileage, he could have flown around the world three times. He’s 81 years old. He’s tired as *. They give him Ambien
California’s new $20-per-hour minimum wage for fast food workers has resulted in a significant decline in employment in that sector, leading to 18,000 fewer jobs than would have been the case otherwise.
That’s according to a new paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) this month, which said:
We analyze the effect of California’s $20 fast food minimum wage, which was enacted in September 2023 and went into effect in April 2024, on employment in the fast food sector. In unadjusted data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, we find that employment in California’s fast food sector declined by 2.7 percent
A Department of Justice employee claims she was fired after feds discovered her husband had developed an anti-ICE phone app. Carolyn Feinstein, who is married to ICEBlock developer Joshua Aaron, said she was unfairly removed from her post in 'retribution' against her partner's work. The ICEBlock app sets out warning signals to users when ICE agents are within a five-mile radius of their location, allowing targets to flee. After Aaron was exposed online for creating the app, Feinstein said she was terminated from her post as a forensic accountant after almost a decade working for the DoJ. 'This was retribution.
The Butler Probabilities
20 replies
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
New York City Mayoral Poll: Socialist
Zohran Mamdani Leading Opponents Cuomo,
Sliwa, Adams 18 replies
Zohran Mamdani Leading Opponents Cuomo,
Sliwa, Adams 18 replies
Socialist New York City (NYC) mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is leading his opponents, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and current NYC Mayor Eric Adams (D), according to a recent poll.During an episode on Mark Halperin’s podcast, Next Up with Mark Halperin, it was revealed that poll research conducted by WICK, found that in four-way NYC mayoral race, Mamdani led with 39 percent, while Cuomo received 21 percent of support.Sliwa followed, receiving 18 percent of support, while Adams received nine percent.
In a two-way race between Cuomo and Mamdani, however, the two candidates were neck-and-neck, with Cuomo receiving 42 percent, and Mamdani receiving 41 percent.
President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he had reached a settlement with CBS and Paramount triggered by a 60 Minutes interview with Vice President Kamala Harris. 'We have just achieved a BIG AND IMPORTANT WIN in our Historic Lawsuit against 60 Minutes, CBS, and Paramount,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'Just like ABC and George Slopadopoulos, CBS and its Corporate Owners knew that they defrauded the American People, and were desperate to settle.' Trump said that Paramount/CBS/60 Minutes paid $16 million in the settlement and anticipated an additional $20 million from the new owners of CBS in advertising, PSAs or similar programming.
Legacy media outlets largely silent on
Tulsi Gabbard's bombshell Obama administration claims 17 replies
Tulsi Gabbard's bombshell Obama administration claims 17 replies
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard suggested last week that intelligence was "manufactured and politicized" by the most powerful people in the Obama administration in 2016 and Americans will finally learn the truth, but legacy media outlets didn’t take the announcement particularly seriously. (Snip) MSNBC, meanwhile, spent more time downplaying Gabbard's report and similarly suggested Republicans are using it to distract from unflattering news. "The latest distraction comes from the national intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, who put out a baseless report Friday accusing the Obama administration of manufacturing intelligence that laid the groundwork for the FBI’s Russia probe into Trump," MSNBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin said.
Dem Rep. Beatty: Economic Numbers Are
Just Made Up, ‘What They’re Reporting
Are Just Numbers’ 16 replies
Just Made Up, ‘What They’re Reporting
Are Just Numbers’ 16 replies
During an interview on CBS News on Tuesday, Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-OH) argued that economic indices on the stock market, employment, and inflation are just being made up by the Trump administration and “what they’re reporting are just numbers and we don’t know how much accuracy [there] is.”
Host and CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent Major Garrett asked, “Congresswoman, the White House says, repeatedly, and there are some numbers that back them up on this, the stock market is up, investment in this country is up, employment is up or stable, inflation is down or stable. Most of the economic indices they point to are on the upswing.
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte Macron, have filed a defamation lawsuit against American conservative commentator Candace Owens over claims that the French First Lady was born as a man.
The first couple of France filed a 218-page lawsuit in the U.S. state of Delaware on Wednesday against Mrs Owens and her businesses, alleging that she has financially gained from making “demonstrably false” claims about Brigitte Macron being secretly transgender.
Owens has previously stated that she would stake her “entire professional reputation on the fact that Brigitte Macron is in fact a man,” while claiming that Macron was, in fact, her brother
Ozzy Osbourne, the legendary Prince of Darkness and one of heavy metal’s most iconic stars, has died. He was 76.
He died “surrounded by love,” his family said in a statement to The Sun on Tuesday. “It is with more sadness than mere words can convey that we have to report that our beloved Ozzy Osbourne has passed away this morning. He was with his family and surrounded by love. We ask everyone to respect our family privacy at this time. Sharon, Jack, Kelly, Aimee and Louis.”
News of Osbourne’s death comes more than five years after he announced his Parkinson’s disease diagnosis in January 2020.
Comments:
The author doesn't address this point: nothing's come out to suggest Crooks knew the roof was purposely left unguarded. It makes no sense for a plotter to say, let's make that perch accessible and hope someone takes advantage of the opportunity. One other thing. Why have Crooks' parents been invisible since the shooting?