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Where have all the tropical storms gone?

Original Article

Posted By: Dreadnought, 9/13/2022 12:36:40 AM

I don’t know, and neither do the experts who are charged with predicting them. Hard as it is to believe, our models about how the climate and weather work are not quite as reliable as we have been told. Again and again and again…. Ars Technica has an interesting story that does a fine job of pointing out the huge disconnect between the experts’ predictions of a vicious hurricane season and the welcome lack of tropical storms this year. Back in May NOAA predicted an above average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, and they had reasons to. They claimed that “ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures

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Reply 1 - Posted by: DVC 9/13/2022 12:56:32 AM (No. 1275943)
They don't have a clue. Climate models are nonsense.
74 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Omen55 9/13/2022 1:27:16 AM (No. 1275948)
Well the NOAA just hates this & is hoping for some Cat 4s to make them feel good.
57 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Enoch Powell 9/13/2022 3:34:24 AM (No. 1275968)
There were yearly tropical storms in South Florida in the early 2000s. Since then nada, zip, zero. These guys officially have as much credibility as there have been hurricanes I.e. none.
41 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: EJKrausJr 9/13/2022 4:02:29 AM (No. 1275979)
My bet is that the NOAA models did not factor in the Saharan Dust that has been prevalent in the Atlantic atmosphere this spring and summer. Nevertheless, this year's hurricanes or the lack thereof, kind of put a real damper on the Climate Change Models that the left shouts from the highest rafters. Remember AOC said we only had until 2029 left until the world would end. The Chicken Little Climate Change Models are crap for everyone to see.
51 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: anniebc 9/13/2022 4:19:42 AM (No. 1275983)
Maybe those storms classified were just rain. We have evacuations where I live, but for the last ten years or so (since I've lived here), every cat whatever has just been a rain event with a little wind. Thank God! knock on wood. The hype is always worse than the storm. The news media sits on the reversed interstate waiting for car pileups that never happen. Now they can't even manufacture storms.
22 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: GreatGreyhounds 9/13/2022 4:44:08 AM (No. 1275993)
We're in the midst of a Solar Minimum, almost at a level of a Grand Minimum, that's something the Climate Models always ignore...
28 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Strike3 9/13/2022 5:48:34 AM (No. 1276003)
Climate science is not a science. It's an expensive crystal ball that is seldom correct. Monday's weather for my area predicted 63% chance of rain so many people canceled their golf reservations. Not me. It turned out to be a beautiful day. If they can't get the next day's prediction even close, what are the chances that long-term prognostication has a chance in hell of being correct? Climate change is a scam but so is everyday weather prediction.
43 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: BirdsNest 9/13/2022 6:08:03 AM (No. 1276013)
Predictions of thunderstorms with 'locally heavy downpours' for the past 3 days have given us about 15 drops of rain one day to a brief shower the next. If they can't accurately predict weather from one day to the next then future weather is a joke. I hate thinking about Hurricanes. On the ESVA we would be devastated by anything 2 or above. Our next chance of rain is today(30%) then zip for 7 days. It's DRY here.
18 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: SweetPea3 9/13/2022 6:09:12 AM (No. 1276014)
Hurricane Porn reigns Supreme every day on SWFL morning news. Fingers croaaed, weather ditzes.
17 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: Msquared112 9/13/2022 6:20:32 AM (No. 1276021)
They can’t predict accurately from one week to the next, yet they’re predicting decades down the road, mainly their “climate change” hysteria? Rush Limbaugh used to make fun of the climate disaster “scientists” by asking the same question. As usual, he was right. That said, many of us were praying for a relatively inactive hurricane season. That is just as likely the answer to the question as weather predictions are.
22 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: Rumblehog 9/13/2022 6:47:30 AM (No. 1276032)
The amount of computational power and physical variables of local climate mathematical models are vast, and, while being fairly good, are exponentially simpler than modeling the entire planet for long-term "climate change," referred to in the late 1970's as the "global carbon-cycle." For heaven's sake they can't accurately predict the noon-day temperature for next Tuesday in Wichita, Kansas, but we're supposed blindly accept that "somehow" some unnamed "powers that be" can predict something many orders of magnitude more complex than that? Hooey. This is reminiscent of the mystical Mayan Shaman of centuries past, who would order up human "volunteers" to be brought forth the annual hearts excisions to appease the 'Earth god' into granting their community a bountiful harvest. If the harvest was in trouble, the Shaman simply ordered up more "volunteers" for the obsidian blade. Looking back, perhaps the problem was the Shaman and the people should have "sacrificed" him for being wrong?
18 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: F15 Gork 9/13/2022 7:09:04 AM (No. 1276047)
WX Forecasters and Economists have two things in common: 1. Neither one knows what they are doing and 2. They both are always surprised when things happen they don’t expect.
14 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: petrichor 9/13/2022 7:14:07 AM (No. 1276050)
Replying to #12, economists have the upper hand. They can create the weather.
6 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: mifla 9/13/2022 7:27:24 AM (No. 1276059)
Check at all of Al Gore's mansions.
7 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: downnout 9/13/2022 7:38:26 AM (No. 1276067)
Here on the east coast of southern Florida we’ve had more rain than usual and the temps have been slightly cooler. No one is complaining.
8 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: joyous153 9/13/2022 7:39:15 AM (No. 1276069)
Hello??? You cannot predict God.
9 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: Hazymac 9/13/2022 8:12:11 AM (No. 1276091)
Exactly five years ago at the peak of hurricane season (this week) I was evacuated to a more stable structure as Hurricane Irma passed by with winds of 100 mph in the Tampa Bay area. That particular hurricane had been at Category 5 strength as it brushed against north Cuba, preparing its turn north toward Florida. It had all our attention. If it stayed at sea and had passed, say just west of the Florida peninsula while curving east, the entire west coast would be in danger from a Category 5 strike. The eye of the storm went through the Keys east of Key West and traveled up the peninsula, heading north northwest over Tampa Bay. Having lived through it, let me say that a Cat 2 is preferable to a Cat 5. Dodged a major disaster there. In forty years here we have been hit by three hurricanes: Irma, and in 2004, Frances and Jeanne. Fortunately, we're still here. No one knows what the weather will do. Be prepared always.
15 people like this.

Reply 18 - Posted by: mobyclik 9/13/2022 8:19:19 AM (No. 1276098)
I have officially renamed these ''weather forecasters'' to what they really are: Weather Guessers. You wait, at the end of hurricane season they'll come up with some ridiculous, convoluted reason for the lack of hurricanes, but......Next year.....!!! I live in Florida, seen this movie more than once.
15 people like this.

Reply 19 - Posted by: bpl40 9/13/2022 8:26:59 AM (No. 1276103)
Someone with high school knowledge of geography will tell you that these storms are generally dependent on solar activity. Which is now trending down. Just like the sun this is all cyclical. You don't need a PhD in climatology with your livelihood dependent on a government grant on global warming to predict this.
11 people like this.

Reply 20 - Posted by: Sorosisbehindit 9/13/2022 8:49:05 AM (No. 1276122)
In the earth cycle, the current cooling off seems to be helpful.
5 people like this.

Reply 21 - Posted by: Quigley 9/13/2022 9:00:46 AM (No. 1276129)
Oibumbum promised to eliminate them, lower sea levels, stop time, save the planet and buy mansions on at least two oceans. Didn’t he?
13 people like this.

Reply 22 - Posted by: udanja99 9/13/2022 9:01:17 AM (No. 1276131)
Not surprising since every single prediction by these fanatics for the last fifty years has failed to occur. And where I live, the weather forecasters are wrong on a daily basis.
12 people like this.

Reply 23 - Posted by: Kafka2 9/13/2022 9:02:03 AM (No. 1276132)
Anybody who has taken the time to understand the difference between climate and weather knows that weather changes occur on a short time bases — hourly, daily, and seasonal. Climate changes occur on a long time basis—decades, centuries, and millenniums. These appear to be cyclical in nature and the interaction of these cycles is poorly understood. Part of the problem is that most of them last much longer than a human lifetime. Much of the real world data was collected in rural areas that have urban areas grow up around them, impacting the data collection. In 1957, claims were made that we were going into another ice age and much of the world would starve or freeze to death. Thankfully, this was not true. But, it shows that the climate “experts” have a lot to learn. Finally, creating a computer program to predict climate changes does not mean that the answer it poops out is accurate. It is only as good or bad as the assumptions made in programming it. So far they have proved the computer axiom GIGO, Garbage In = Garbage Out.
8 people like this.

Reply 24 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua 9/13/2022 9:06:24 AM (No. 1276142)
Heavy rains most afternoons in Tampa. Not a surprise at all. It is the rainy season. Still could get a tropical storm or hurricane, but the area usually gets missed. I remember one of those 'disaster' shows profiling how Tampa could get hit. It would take a cat 5 coming straight up the bay, head inland up the river, and push the storm surge in front of it. They claim it would make a mess far inland.
4 people like this.

Reply 25 - Posted by: Speedypetey 9/13/2022 9:38:18 AM (No. 1276175)
What if; the Earth's magnetic field created by the mantle is slowing the gulf stream and other ocean currents? While the redirect by our propagandists and their owners is; climate change?
1 person likes this.

Reply 26 - Posted by: moebellini3 9/13/2022 9:39:23 AM (No. 1276179)
Garbage in, garbage out. For the last 60 years, every dire prediction put forth by these climate activists have never come to fruition. NYC is not under water, the polar bears are thriving, the polar ice caps have increased in density and the Australian barrier coral reefs are teaming with marine life. The devastating wildfires in California are not due to climate change but due to lack of forest management. These climate change whack jobs are responsible for countless deaths and billions of dollars in property damage because they refuse to allow California to implement forest management polices that work in other state. This is how sick these people are. A total hoax is sucking the life out of our country. Wake up...
10 people like this.

Reply 27 - Posted by: felixcat 9/13/2022 9:40:25 AM (No. 1276181)
I was stationed with the US Navy in Charleston, SC in 1989 when Hurricane Hugo struck SC 33 years ago this month. Grew up in South Florida and a couple of close calls but that was it. As for these computer models, it was a certain computer model from the UK that "predicted" that millions would die from covid if we don't do something.....
5 people like this.

Reply 28 - Posted by: snowoutlaw 9/13/2022 9:53:55 AM (No. 1276201)
Sure the predictions are wrong because its more like flipping a coin for everything to be just right for tropical storms to grow but sooner or later heads will come up. Also it only takes one to make it a very bad year, I'd hold off on the victory lap until the season is over. The energy in the tropics needs to go somewhere and tropical storms is how it gets spread around. Few storms means it is like a spring waiting to be sprung.
6 people like this.

Reply 29 - Posted by: Zigrid 9/13/2022 10:22:32 AM (No. 1276231)
Looks like another government agency has been called out on the carpet because of their incompetence...not a surprise...a lot of political patronage jobs given to unqualified people...the result is "misinformation" by the government....
4 people like this.

Reply 30 - Posted by: lennon47 9/13/2022 10:26:01 AM (No. 1276234)
give 'climate change' credit
1 person likes this.

Reply 31 - Posted by: MDConservative 9/13/2022 10:28:20 AM (No. 1276240)
NOAA and its National Hurricane Center are fine examples of politics and "science" converging to create fear porn, which drives policy and budget. The public is generally gullible to anything on the internet or afternoon TV. If someone came out with "scientists now believe" how tropical storms spread COVIDS, much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts would see an explosion of mask purchases and wearing until November. As long as the public doesn't understand the difference between climate and weather...
4 people like this.

Reply 32 - Posted by: HRJUNIOR 9/13/2022 11:18:43 AM (No. 1276307)
#1, when was the last time anyone went riding on a "model airplane?"
2 people like this.

Reply 33 - Posted by: paral04 9/13/2022 12:18:31 PM (No. 1276387)
Ask any person in Puerto Rico and they will tell you. If the avocado crop is good, no hurricane. It works!
1 person likes this.

Reply 34 - Posted by: earlybird 9/13/2022 2:40:31 PM (No. 1276512)
Over at Hot Air they missed Hurricane Kay in the Pacific that just made its way up the Baja California Coast and became a tropical storm. It never made landfall but remained over the Pacific. We got extreme heat and humidity and a bit of rain a few days ago.
1 person likes this.

Reply 35 - Posted by: Dino Sayer 9/13/2022 2:47:14 PM (No. 1276516)
My friend in Cuba says that an amateur meteorologist he knows in Maine, says that a massive underwater volcano eruption in January added extreme amounts of water to the atmosphere, causing high temperatures due to greater cloud cover so far this year. Cloud cover keeps the earth from cooling off overnight. The warm temperatures in turn reduced the formation of tropical storms.
1 person likes this.

Reply 36 - Posted by: Geoman 9/13/2022 3:52:53 PM (No. 1276576)
Careful, or they'll just say that the lack of tropical storms is clear evidence of climate change due to the number of diesel pickups and lack of confiscatory gun control in the red states.
2 people like this.

Reply 37 - Posted by: DVC 9/13/2022 5:17:35 PM (No. 1276627)
I started in computer simulation as a grad student working on my Master's degree in Mechanical Engineering. The task was to model, in extreme detail, a non-existent hybrid-electric bus, with the purpose to understand how battery size and heat engine size work with various driving cycles. The intent was to select the size of batteries and heat engine/generator for building an actual prototype bus. This was all accomplished, and the final part of my master's thesis was to test drive the instrumented real prototype bus and compare the real bus performance to the computer simulation. My simulation was within 1% of the real thing on the charge side of the cycle, and within 0.5% on the discharge cycle. I was, frankly, amazed and extremely pleased. Carefully done, with good lab testing and intelligently written equations, this can work. The way things worked out, I spent my entire career in computer simulation of different kinds, structural, electrical circuits, thermal simulation and electric field simulation, including high speed impacts, metal forming, shock and vibration. None of this is 'climate modeling', but it has given me a very broad insight into the capabilities and limitations of computer simulation for scientific predictions. I can tell you that the climate models are crap on several different levels. The first is resolution. Because of computing power limitations, the "element" size used is a cube of air that is many tens of miles on a side. And ALL variables, temperature, pressure, humidity, insolation, wind, etc, etc, can only vary linearly across the element in most model, and must match adjacent elements at the corners. This means that "resolution" of the models is extremely poor, and if any effect that is significant, and which occurs on a scale smaller than perhaps 100 cannot be part of the model. No clouds, for example. Second massive problem. When I did a model of the hybrid bus, we had/have extensive testing of the electric motor used, we understand the capabilities of the diesel engine in fuel consumption for power output from decades of studying these engines in labs. Aerodynamic drag and tire rolling drag are well understood from decades of study, with accurate equations known, and it is only necessary to do some testing to know what coefficients to put in these known equations. Even battery charge and discharge characteristics were pretty well established in labs, since we used lead acid batteries which had been used in huge applications like submarines for many decades. For the climate.....we do NOT have the fundamental equations. The are guessed at, supposed, estimated and ........often just not even known to be part of the problem, so not included. AND finally, the absolute killer.....many/most of the necessary "lab tests" to get the coefficients to put into these (shadowy and poorly known) equations CANNOT BE DONE. If you need to hold the temperature of the Pacific Ocean constant for a month while varying the solar input from max to min and measuring at cloud formation and rainfall to get a coefficient. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE. Their "fundamental" equations are not fundamental, they are guesses. Their coefficients are NOT measured in labs, they are guesses. The climate models are crap. That is my long considered, professional opinion.
8 people like this.

Reply 38 - Posted by: Tet Vet 68 9/13/2022 9:11:36 PM (No. 1276811)
The so called experts aren't. The predictive weather forecasting is wrong more than it is right. If you live in hurricane prone areas you made that choice live with the risk. If there are no hurricanes well you got lucky this year.
0 people like this.

Reply 39 - Posted by: MickTurn 9/14/2022 9:55:23 AM (No. 1277181)
They are protesting for lack of respect...count on them being back with a vengeance!
0 people like this.

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31 replies
Posted by Imright 9/16/2022 4:00:05 AM Post Reply
President Joe Biden on Thursday denounced Republican governors as 'unAmerican' for the way they were playing political games with migrants, after more than 100 were dumped outside the vice president's official residence and others were flown to Martha's Vineyard. It marked the latest salvo in an increasingly bitter row over the thousands of people crossing the border daily. Republicans have stepped up their attacks on the Biden administration as they try to make immigration the theme of November's midterm elections. Biden hit back as he addressed the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Gala. 'Republicans are playing politics with human beings, using them as props,' he said.
Revealed: Trump's MAGA Army that could
transform Congress in his image - more
than 200 candidates he endorsed will now
fight tooth and nail for him in November
midterms... but establishment GOP is terrified
they will scare off floating voters
31 replies
Posted by Imright 9/15/2022 5:42:24 PM Post Reply
An army of more than 200 MAGA candidates ready to fight for Donald Trump's agenda is marching into November's midterm races, after a heated primary season that proved the ex-president remains, for the most part, the de facto leader of the Republican Party. Trump has played a heavy hand in the 2022 election cycle thus far, endorsing candidates both for Congress and state executive roles in races that normally do not get the national attention he's brought to them. He's also jetted around the country to campaign with their voters in his signature 'Make America Great Again' rallies, including a forthcoming appearance in Ohio on Saturday for Senate candidate JD Vance.
What a shock: Nobody watched the Emmys 30 replies
Posted by DW626 9/15/2022 1:42:55 PM Post Reply
The numbers are in and the folks running the Emmys have a CNN problem. This is from Variety: The Nielsen data for the 2022 Emmys on NBC is in and its [sic] not looking good for TV's biggest night. The awards show was down 25% from last year in total viewers and hit a new record low in ratings. On Monday, the Kenan Thompson-hosted 74th Emmy Awards had a 1.0 rating among adults 18–49, the lowest-ever key demo stat for the Emmys.
Who was Behind the January 6 Events? 29 replies
Posted by Hazymac 9/15/2022 7:31:17 AM Post Reply
The current anti-Trump and anti-MAGA witch-hunt is not about 2024. The Democrat DoJ is safe for two more years. It is about January 6, 2021. The target is not so much Trump as the idea that electoral votes could be legally contested on the joint session of Congress. Obviously, the DoJ violates core freedom of speech. It also ignores the clear letter and spirit of the law regarding the joint session for Presidential elections. 3 U.S. Code § 15 - Counting electoral votes in Congress clearly provides for raising and debating objections against “all the certificates and papers purporting to be certificates of
Buttigieg awards big fed grant to tear
down divisive highway
28 replies
Posted by Kafka2 9/15/2022 11:26:04 AM Post Reply
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Thursday launched a $1 billion first-of-its-kind pilot program aimed at helping reconnect cities and neighborhoods racially segregated or divided by road projects, pledging wide-ranging help to dozens of communities despite the program’s limited dollars. Under the Reconnecting Communities program, cities and states can now apply for the federal aid over five years to rectify harm caused by roadways that were built primarily through lower-income, Black communities after the 1950s creation of the interstate highway system.
DeSantis sends two planes with migrants
to Martha's Vineyard
28 replies
Posted by Imright 9/15/2022 2:34:14 AM Post Reply
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) sent two planeloads of migrants to Martha's Vinyard on Wednesday. Video showing the arrival of the planes was obtained by Fox News, which also reported a statement from the governor's office. Roughly 50 migrants, including children, arrived at Martha’s Vineyard Airport in Massachusetts, according to the Martha's Vineyard Times. The effort appears to be part of Republican states' efforts to bring increased attention to the migrant crisis, most notably seen by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who has bused migrants to the Democratic-run cities of New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago.
KJP: It’s ‘Cruel’ To Send Migrants
To Liberal Sanctuary Cities
27 replies
Posted by Imright 9/15/2022 10:17:45 PM Post Reply
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that the policy of transporting illegal migrants from Florida and Texas to Democrat-run cities is “cruel.” A White House reporter asked the press secretary to comment on migrants being transported to the “Democratic haven” of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, and the Vice President Kamala Harris’ official residence in Washington, D.C.. The press secretary said the policy is a “political stunt” and “cruel.” “It is a political stunt, that’s what we’re seeing from governors, Republican governors in particular and it is a cruel, inhumane way of treating people who are fleeing communism, people who are —
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