The Fed Is Going to Trigger a Recession
Within Six Months
Zero Hedge,
by
Graham Summers
Original Article
Posted By: Hazymac,
4/5/2022 5:31:55 PM
The bond market is telling us that the Fed is in very serious trouble.
Bonds are quite complicated, so I’m going to do my best to keep things very simple here.
The Fed ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) program through which it prints new money and used it to buy assets from Wall Street in early March. Since that time, the Fed has also begun raising interest rates, implementing its first rate hike of 0.25% on March 17th.
Historically, when the Fed begins raising interest rates, it looks to the 2-Year U.S. Treasury for guidance: the Fed tracks the yield on this bond as a proxy for where rates need to go.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
volksford 4/5/2022 6:05:54 PM (No. 1120365)
Tell us something we don't know.
14 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
davew 4/5/2022 6:22:53 PM (No. 1120377)
What the inverted yield curve is telling the markets is that it has already priced in another 5 or 6 rate hikes by the Fed and this is spooking stocks. But if the Fed looks at other indicators like retail and durable goods inventories, they will see increases indicating that purchasing managers over-ordered products due to supply chain disruptions and that there will be a (huge) glut of merch on the market as a result. This, along with a low consumption rate, increased employment, slow consumer credit growth, declining consumer sentiment, and low velocity of money will be seen as anti-inflationary and potentially signaling a recession with layoffs next year.
This may change the Fed's perspective on tightening as quickly as the bond markets are expecting especially in an election year. This article is betting that they will react in a knee jerk fashion as they have in the past and not recognize the different circumstances that are actually signaling a slow down or recession that would be exacerbated with dramatic rate increases. Maybe Zero Hedge is right but when everybody knows something it is usually already priced-in to the market.
10 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
Lawsy0 4/5/2022 6:46:12 PM (No. 1120388)
Question: Is this a threat or is it a promise?
4 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Proud Texan 4/5/2022 6:48:46 PM (No. 1120390)
The Fed will use political science, not that silly economics stuff, to decide what to do.
11 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
billsv 4/5/2022 7:06:01 PM (No. 1120396)
The Fed triggered an inevitable recession when they printed a massive amount of money in response to massive federal spending with the inevitable inflation. They now have to raise interest rates resulting in drying up demand. Do some research on how President Harding and his Secretary of Treasury Andrew Mellon handle the recession maybe depression after WW I. None of this and the economy came back in 9 months.
9 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
jalo1951 4/5/2022 7:20:55 PM (No. 1120400)
We'll be lucky if that is all it is. D stands for dumb democrat and democrat depression.
8 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
DVC 4/5/2022 7:32:23 PM (No. 1120405)
Count on it.
Plan for it.
You KNOW that it is going to happen, because the Evil Dems have flushed SO MUCH fantasy money into the system that inflation is now raging, worse than any time in the last 40 years. And to slow that....you raise interest rates, which kills the home market, makes it more difficult for farmers to get loans to plant and fertilize...just when fertilizer has tripled and quadrupled in price. And it raises bond yields, which will lower the investment in stocks, flattening stock prices.
Crashing the economy - the Dems do it EVERY SINGLE TIME that they get complete, unfettered power.
17 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
Dodge Boy 4/5/2022 7:35:32 PM (No. 1120412)
Yes, Graham, we know. However, the 2-year and 5-year bond yields are already higher than the 10-year bond yield. The 1-year bond yield has not yet caught up. But it will. And soon because the Fed has run out of options and will raise interest rates yet further. It has no choice. Look for Jay Powell to fake that heart attack and leave before the rate hikes are approved by that deputy chairman freak.
Get ready and be prepped for the expected hyperinflation period...if you aren't already.
6 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
padiva 4/5/2022 8:58:59 PM (No. 1120484)
Coincidence??
Right after the Reps take over Congress?
Who will be blamed.......
5 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
stablemoney 4/5/2022 9:11:31 PM (No. 1120495)
The Fed doesn't trigger anything, and does not interfere with decisions made by elected officials. The government makes major mistakes, and the Fed tries to deal with the situation. It is awful the Fed does not speak the truth to the government, but then, many of them are leftists. We are already in a recession. None of the numbers provided by the government is true. All are coverups for their mistakes.
7 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
lakerman1 4/5/2022 10:12:04 PM (No. 1120537)
I once had to study the Federal Reserve in a serious way, in a course called Money and Banking.
My conclusion, at the time (1964) was that the Fed usually did the wrong thing.
And now, in 2022, I still believe that.
And my vote for the worst Federal Reserve Chairman ever? Paul Volker. The worst, Jerry! The Worst!
9 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
pmcclure 4/5/2022 10:20:55 PM (No. 1120544)
I think the level of evil and incompetence in the Biden administration will ultimately lead to a recession, merging rapidly into a depression.
5 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
smokincol 4/6/2022 3:07:58 AM (No. 1120630)
"The Fed Is Going to Trigger a Recession Within Six Months" but that will only mean that the IRS will go full speed to collect more and more taxes - that's what the demcommies do: spend money, start wars and collect taxes
1 person likes this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
Trigger2 4/6/2022 3:23:44 AM (No. 1120641)
The reality is that Joey wants the Fed to take the inflation blame since his Putin lie isn't working.
1 person likes this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
franq 4/6/2022 6:02:28 AM (No. 1120675)
The oligarchs don't care if we have to stand in line for a bowl of soup. Just so we are on time for work the next day. Sovereign Lord, have mercy on us.
2 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
mifla 4/6/2022 6:56:37 AM (No. 1120692)
There are millions of retired folks who have worked and saved their entire life. When government mismanagement contributes to the destruction of their savings, there will be consequences.
0 people like this.
Reply 17 - Posted by:
lakerman1 4/6/2022 8:23:17 AM (No. 1120775)
Yes, #16, and as a retiree, I and my family are already feeling the consequences. We are purchasing less food, less fancy food, but were wise enough to purchase 1./8 of a cow last August, at 5 dollars a pound. (we know the producer, and we know what the cow was fed and not fed. I do not recommend such a bulk purchase (191 lbs) without knowing the producer.)
We are doing many other purchases on line to minimize gas expenses, and we go to estate sales in person, or on line (local sales only.)
I gave up movies about 20 years ago, because of ticket prices and audience bad behavior.
I suspect I am not the only retiree who has made such adjustments.
1 person likes this.
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