The Black Swan Events That Could Determine
This Election
Posted By: Garnet, 2/1/2024 12:52:16 PM
Some of us older folks grew up in a time of normality when chaos was not the rule and weird, life-changing things didn’t happen. The stakes were not that high when we were growing up, except for the whole imminent nuclear war thing, but now we are regularly beset by flocks of black swan events, events so significant and life-changing that they send our society and our politics off in strange new tangents. And they now happen all the time. 9/11, the Wall Street meltdown, Trump’s election, COVID, Ben Shapiro getting a No. 1 rap hit … the black swans are coming fast and furious,
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Garnet"
Some of us older folks grew up in a time of normality when chaos was not the rule and weird, life-changing things didn’t happen. The stakes were not that high when we were growing up, except for the whole imminent nuclear war thing, but now we are regularly beset by flocks of black swan events, events so significant and life-changing that they send our society and our politics off in strange new tangents. And they now happen all the time. 9/11, the Wall Street meltdown, Trump’s election, COVID, Ben Shapiro getting a No. 1 rap hit … the black swans are coming fast and furious,
Moving to Red America
8 replies
It’s instructive to observe where Americans are moving, and where they are leaving. Such comparisons are particularly revealing when made during, or immediately following, a crisis, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic. States dealt with that crisis quite differently. Movement statistics from recent years help to establish which of the 50 “laboratories of democracy” responded best to the pandemic.
The Census Bureau publishes annual data on each state’s net domestic migration—that is, how many U.S. residents have moved to a given state, minus the number who moved from that state to elsewhere in the U.S.
Is This What Biden Meant By ‘Unity’?
7 replies
During President Biden’s inaugural address, he used the word “unity” at least a dozen times. He told us, “Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together. Uniting our people.” Three years later, his irresponsible policies and incendiary rhetoric have rendered the nation more divided than at any time in recent memory. Nowhere is this more evident than at the southern border where Biden has created a humanitarian crisis by ignoring federal immigration law and suing the state of Texas for exercising its constitutional right to defend itself from what its governor accurately describes as a foreign invasion.
College Grads for Trump
4 replies
The commentariat has made much of the “diploma divide” and the purported propensity of college graduates to vote for Democrats. Most of their disquisitions suggest that Republicans are by definition intellectually stunted. Ironically, serious analyses of voter behavior suggest the divide is shrinking. A Pew Research analysis of the last two midterms shows the Democrat-Republican share of college educated voters had narrowed to 52-47, a far smaller gap than in 2018. More evidence that a shift is underway involves former President Trump’s recent Iowa caucus victory, in which he dramatically outperformed his 2016 showing among college educated voters.
In late 2022, when asked by reporters about the probability that former President Trump would run for a second term, President Biden pledged to make sure “he does not become president again.” This was largely ignored at the time because Trump had not yet been bombarded with the brazenly partisan prosecutions that he is now fending off. In hindsight, it is clear that Biden was referring to a carefully planned lawfare campaign coordinated by the White House. His administration’s fingerprints are all over every prosecution from the first indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to the recent attempt to remove Trump from the Colorado primary ballot.
A Culture in Collapse
6 replies
In the last six months, we have borne witness to many iconic moments evidencing the collapse of American culture.
The signs are everywhere and cover the gamut of politics, the economy, education, social life, popular culture, foreign policy, and the military. These symptoms of decay share common themes.
Our descent is self-induced; it is not a symptom of a foreign attack or subterfuge. Our erosion is not the result of poverty and want, but of leisure and excess. We are not suffering from existential crises of famine, plague,
The Democrats Can’t Disgorge Biden
15 replies
Despite the pervasive angst among Democratic insiders about the hazards of nominating President Biden for a second term, he is all but certain to be at the top of his party’s ticket next November. The only elected incumbent ever denied the nomination of his party for reelection was President Franklin Pierce, and that occurred long before the modern primary system reduced party conventions to coronation ceremonies. It’s clear that the Biden campaign plans to win enough delegates during the primaries to secure the nomination well before he arrives at the Democratic National Convention. If they succeed, it will be difficult to deny him the nomination.
Let me make it clear from the beginning that I think Nikki Haley (R-Boeing) is a vapid establishment automaton who is basically the Kamala Harris of the Republican Party, a Bushesque mediocrity who represents a dying ideology that peaked in 2005, and good riddance to it. She’s the worst – self-righteous, annoying, always spewing grrrl-power nonsense and hack clichés salvaged from the back catalog of the Weekly Standard. She’s a disaster on every level, one of those people who is both very aggressive and always wrong, the worst possible combination. That being said, should he win the nomination, Nikki! should absolutely be Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick
It’s safe to say that Chief Justice John Roberts would rather keep the U.S. Supreme Court out of the legal battles that seem destined to define the 2024 presidential election. Unfortunately for Roberts, it will be all but impossible for the Court to avoid deciding whether state officials and courts possess the legal authority to remove Donald Trump from primary ballots after declaring him guilty of a crime for which he has never been charged. Because SCOTUS is likely to rule in favor of Trump, it will produce outrage on the left and countless comparisons to Bush v. Gore.
Colorado’s Christmas Gift to Trump
7 replies
Colorado is generally regarded as a blue state, but it is home to many Republicans. In the last presidential election, nearly 1.4 million voters cast ballots for then-President Trump. Yet the state Supreme Court has handed down a ruling that strips them of their right to do so again. Four of the court’s seven Democrat-appointed justices found that Trump’s role in the fabled Jan. 6 “insurrection” disqualifies him from appearing on Colorado’s ballot. This ruling earned them the wrath of the former President’s supporters and the derision of all but a few hyper-partisan constitutional scholars. Nor will it survive the inevitable appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Happy Friday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. Yerzenwul felt that it was almost time to share his love of hamster haiku with everyone in Omelette Appreciation Club.
It has been a whirlwind few days since the Colorado Supreme Court took a plunge off of the progressive cliff and booted Donald Trump from the state's GOP primary ballot.
In the first 24 hours or so after the ruling, reaction predictably broke along party lines. The rabid, Trump-hating Left was ecstatic, of course. Even Republicans who aren't Trump fans thought the court had severely exceeded its authority. Everyone immediately became a legal expert and opinions were flying like Frisbees at the beach.
“Mr. President,” shouted a reporter as Joe Biden stumbled slowly toward his presidential SUV on a rainy night in Delaware on Sunday. “Why are you losing to Trump in the polls?”
The leader of the free world stopped in his tracks, looked momentarily bemused, then turned toward his questioner and replied: “You’re reading the wrong polls!”
One second later, there was a loud bang as a random vehicle accidentally smashed into his presidential motorcade.
Biden looked bemused again before Secret Service agents bundled him inside the armored SUV.
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Migrants housed in one of New York City's hotels will receive pre-paid cards with which to buy food and baby supplies, instead of the city providing meals the migrants often did not want.
Eric Adams, the mayor of New York, estimated the scheme will save the city $600,000 a month, or $7.2 million annually.
The pilot program is being rolled out at the Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan, with 500 families involved, The New York Post reported. They will be given cards which can be only used at bodegas, supermarkets and delis. Migrants must sign an affidavit promising to only use the cards for food and baby supplies, or else
As though President Biden hasn't taken enough actions to offer aid and comfort to America's enemies already, now he is reportedly to issue an executive order (EO) threatening Israeli citizens who have settled in the West Bank.
President Joe Biden is expected to issue an executive order targeting Israeli settlers in the West Bank who have been attacking Palestinianns in the occupied territory, according to four people familiar with the matter.
A senior administration official, who like the others was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the White House was expected to announce the order later Thursday.
The order comes with Biden facing growing criticism
It's quite something that the Democrats sold Joe Biden as some kind of a nice moderate who would supposedly restore order and have the "adults back in charge." That was such fiction, and everything has been out of order and in chaos since he came in, from domestic issues to foreign policy. He's governed like someone completely under the control of the left, with extreme positions on the border and student loans, for example.
Instead, we got a nasty man. He makes up things constantly to pander and to hold onto control. He screams at people when he's challenged, he's called voters and media all kinds
Over 500 journalists were laid off from news outlets in January, according to a new report released Thursday, as many organizations continue to struggle financially. (snip) The job cuts come after an already bleak year. The news industry shed 3,087 digital, broadcast and print news jobs in 2023 — the highest annual total since 2020, when 16,060 cuts were recorded.
In the last month, dozens of layoffs were announced at outlets including NBC News, Time magazine, Business Insider and The Los Angeles Times — the last of which saw more than 100 employees cut.
The U.S. military launched an air assault on dozens of sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian-backed militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Friday, in the opening salvo of retaliation for the drone strike that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan last weekend.
The massive barrage of strikes hit more than 85 targets at seven locations, including command and control headquarters, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities that were connected to the militias or the IRGC’s Quds Force,
San Francisco's residential property market has hit troubled waters as a major investor landlord announced the sell-off of a large section of its rental empire this week.
Landlord Mosser Companies defaulted on a 2018 loan for $88 million that was underwritten by its 459 rental units across 12 buildings in San Francisco.
The company's creditor has now hired real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield to sell the multifamily home properties, The San Francisco Chronicle reported. Mosser Companies took on the debt pre-pandemic with low occupancy rates, but as the city by the bay grapples with
Fox News host Dagen McDowell warned Republicans not to run on the economy in the upcoming election because “it’s good” right now. Recently, Democrats have credited President Joe Biden for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index hitting record heights. Moreover, the labor market grew exponentially in January as the U.S. added more than 350,000 jobs.
The U.S. has launched a devastating wave of airstrikes on Iran's Revolutionary Guard in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the drone strike that killed three U.S. troops.
Multiple long-range bombers and drones hit 85 targets with 125 bombs over 30 minutes in the widespread military operation on Friday night ordered by President Joe Biden.
The president said strikes will continue 'at times and places of our choosing' and warned militias in the Middle East: 'If you harm an American, we will respond'.
Gavin Newsom revealed Wednesday that he once witnessed a shoplifter steal from Target without any interference from workers, one of whom blamed the California governor for emboldened criminals in the state before she realized who he actually was. (snip) Newsom said he was on the Target checkout line when he and a store worker saw the thief waltz out of the store with items he didn’t pay for, according to footage posted online.
“I said, ‘why didn’t you stop him,’” Newsom said. “She goes, ‘oh, the governor.’ Swear to God, true story on my mom’s grave. ‘The governor lowered the threshold, there’s no accountability.’
Elon Musk weighed in on Joe Biden’s agenda.
News broke in January that Joe Biden will prioritize legal status for millions of illegal immigrants in the United States. This comes after Joe Biden opened the borders and allowed over 10 million illegals from over a hundred countries to invade the United States. Republicans are still too afraid to impeach Biden for this criminal act.
The AP reported: President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to immediately ask Congress to offer legal status to an estimated 11 million people in the country has surprised advocates given how the issue has long divided Democrats and Republicans, even within their own parties.
How to Ensure a Big, Ugly War With Iran
19 replies
Iranian-backed militias have attacked American installations and forces in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan some 170 times.
Ostensibly, these terrorist groups claim they are hitting U.S. forces to coerce America into dropping its support of Israel and demanding a cease-fire in the Gaza war. In reality, these satellite terrorists are being directed in a larger effort by Iran to pry the U.S. out of the Middle East, in the manner of the 1983 Marine barracks bombing.
That way, Iran will be free to fulfill its old dream of becoming a nuclear shield for a new Shiite/Persian terrorist axis
On Friday, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson (R-LA) mused about the possibility of something that is becoming more and more apparent with each passing day: Joe Biden isn't the guy in charge in Washington.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) speculated Friday that President Biden’s staff is keeping him from taking executive action to stem the flow of migrants on the southern border.
“He knows that he has the authority. We’ve documented it for him. I’ve read to him the law myself — to the president. Read him the provisions of the law and said, ‘Mr. President, please take action,’” Johnson said