The GOP odds of winning the House as of
this morning are 99.97%
Posted By: Big Bopper, 11/11/2022 10:14:56 AM
The GOP performance in the midterm elections is very disappointing, but here’s some good news. It would take a miracle for the Democrats to retain the House of Representatives. Let’s do the math. According to Wall Street Journal and other credible sites, the GOP has won about 211 seats and the Dems have won 192. That means about 32 seats are still undecided. The GOP needs at least 7 of those 32 to reach the bare majority of 218. It’s fair to assume that the odds on each of those races is about 50/50. If it were otherwise, they’d have been decided. They’re “toss-ups”
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The GOP performance in the midterm elections is very disappointing, but here’s some good news. It would take a miracle for the Democrats to retain the House of Representatives. Let’s do the math.
According to Wall Street Journal and other credible sites, the GOP has won about 211 seats and the Dems have won 192. That means about 32 seats are still undecided. The GOP needs at least 7 of those 32 to reach the bare majority of 218.
It’s fair to assume that the odds on each of those races is about 50/50. If it were otherwise, they’d have been decided. They’re “toss-ups”
Aspen newspapers continue to whitewash
or ignore allegation that Boebert’s
opponent was blackmailed 7 replies
or ignore allegation that Boebert’s
opponent was blackmailed 7 replies
A few weeks ago, the Democratic candidate for Colorado’s Third Congressional District was accused of being blackmailed into changing his position on a matter of city policy while he was a city councilman in Aspen. He’s running against conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert, a person the liberal Aspen elite undisguisedly hate and would love to see beaten by Frisch.
The Aspen newspapers – part of that Aspen liberal elite – have mostly dismissed or buried the blackmail story, to the extent they’ve covered it at all.
The Supreme Court on Monday considered the arguments of Harvard and the University of North Carolina justifying their racial discrimination in admissions. The schools will probably lose.
They schools argue their racial discrimination (they refuse to call it that, of course) is just one of many factors they consider in admissions. But the data show it’s by far the most important one. For example, at UNC a white person with a given set of test scores, grade point average and other factors, with 10% chance of getting admitted, would have a 98% chance with the same qualifications if he were black.
Extrapolating from Glenn Youngkin’s win in the Virginia governor’s race, I predicted a year ago that the GOP would flip about 46 seats in the House in the midterm elections, and two or three in the Senate.
So here we are a year later, on the verge of those midterms. How’s my prediction holding up?
Quite well, thank you. The Real Clear Politics aggregation of pundit predictions says the GOP will pick up between 12 and 47 seats.The first – the 12 seat prediction – is clearly from a transexual-grooming Democrat pot legalization pundit with purple hair
As reported in numerous outlets including this site, a man came forward last week alleging that he blackmailed the Democrat candidate challenging conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert for Colorado’s Third Congressional District, while the candidate was a city councilman in Aspen. The two daily newspapers – both overtly liberal – refused to run the story even while numerous citizens brought it to their attention.
The Dem candidate is Adam Frisch, and the Congresswoman he is campaigning to unseat is Lauren Boebert. Frisch presents himself as a high-minded moderate intellectual, but his initial broadcast email drumming up support name-called Boebert, in junior high fashion, “Boebert the Betrayer.”
The story in Glitter Gulch this week is one of blackmail, video cameras, small-time and big-time politics, sex, corruption and, of course, money. But the local newspapers refuse to report the story, apparently because they want a bad guy to win.
Here’s the story, as reported initially in Breitbart and now picked up by half a dozen outlets.
Democrat Adam Frisch is running to unseat conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Frisch was an Aspen city councilman for eight years, stepping down in 2019.
Denver has its share of vagrants. The rule is evidently that you can illegally camp on the sidewalk and poop in the gutter until a lot of people complain. Once dozens or hundreds of people complain – they don’t publish what the requisite number is – the city will tell the vagrants they have two weeks to shuffle down the road to trash some other site.
What the vagrants then do, naturally, is leave for a few days and then come back to the same place again,
I’m not convinced that wealth disparity is a problem. I do firmly believe, mind you, that the world is rich enough now that no one should starve or freeze to death, at least not involuntarily, and that the injured or diseased should be given medical treatment.
In America, we’ve achieved that, and more. Poor people in America not only have plenty to eat (as is evident from their physiques) but also have automobiles, air conditioning, color cable television, smart phones, and free tuition.
The wealth disparity complaint is not about starvation or freezing. It’s the complaint that some people have far more luxuries than others.
First Lady Jill Biden asked to be called “Doctor” after her husband was elected president. She’s not actually a doctor. She’s also not nearly as smart as one and so she thought the title made her look like she was, at least to stupid people who don’t know better.
The justification for “Doctor” Jill’s request to be called a doctor was she has an EdD. That’s a doctoral degree in education. It’s a little like a PhD but much easier to obtain. No EdD in the entire universe could pass an introductory college chemistry or physics course.
“In the popular television series Stranger Things, the “upside down” describes a parallel dimension containing a distorted version of our world. (See Stranger Things, Netflix 2022). Recently, Florida has seemed like a First Amendment upside down. Normally, the First Amendment bars the state from burdening speech, while private actors may burden speech freely. But in Florida, the First Amendment apparently bars private actors from burdening speech, while the state may burden speech freely.”
–U.S. District Judge Mark Walker
So goes the opening paragraph
My dog, my choice?
9 replies
“My body, my choice” is a favorite slogan of abortion advocates. It’s thin gruel.
To the extent this slogan is an analysis and not just a chant, it assumes the conclusion. It assumes that a fetus anywhere from hours old to nearly born is simply owned in a legal property sense by the mother in whom it resides.
But that’s the whole question, right? That question is not answered by just determining the location of the fetus. If it were, then a mother wrapping her arms around her baby or toddler or husband could make the same argument; “My body, my choice.”
The old news of the leak of Justice Alito’s draft opinion last May overruling Roe v. Wade has now been swamped by the new news of the Supreme Court’s final opinion a month later.
That final opinion, almost identical to Alito’s draft and joined by five of the nine Justices, held that Roe was wrong. As a matter of fact and law, the Constitution never mentions, alludes to, or implies a Constitutional right to abortion.
(Notice my use of the word “abortion” to identify abortion. Because “abortion” has a bad connotation, advocates of it seek to rebrand or euphemize the procedure with wooly obscurity like
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When you've lost Scott Adams...
32 replies
Earlier this morning, David looked at the startling way in which Winsome Sears cut her ties with Donald Trump after rising to prominence as a staunch soldier in the Trump army. That clearly caught some people by surprise, though not everyone. Sears wasn’t alone, however. Another fervent Trump supporter has appeared to similarly throw in the towel. Famed cartoonist Scott Adams, best known for his iconic Dilbert series, made a very brief but apparently definitive declaration on Twitter yesterday. He was responding to news that Trump was attacking Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin for reasons that weren’t entirely clear. This was apparently a bridge too far for Adams
Former President Donald Trump has superpowers. That much was established when he first stepped onto the political scene in 2015 and demonstrated his uncanny ability to transform folks on the left into crazed caricatures of themselves just by giving an utterance. It seemed that anytime he so much as sneezed, it immediately caused those who are left of center to have a collective meltdown. But now, he has revealed another superhuman talent: The ability to turn Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis into a Romneyesque neocon just by saying unkind words about him. That’s right. Ever since Trump took a few shots at the person believed to be his most formidable opponent
Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt’s Senate
campaign ‘bracing for a loss,’ prepping
for recount: report 25 replies
campaign ‘bracing for a loss,’ prepping
for recount: report 25 replies
As Republican Adam Laxalt’s lead in the Nevada Senate race dwindles with 93% of the vote counted, his campaign is reportedly “bracing for a loss” and weighing asking for a recount.
Laxalt is ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by just 800 votes after 23,000 mail-in ballots were tabulated in Clark County on Friday. The results from the mail-in ballots are favoring Cortez Masto at a 2-1 rate. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, reportedly has about 27,000 mail-in ballots left to be counted.
Ben Bergquam was outside the Maricopa County election center and followed a Penske truck leave the center and return to Runbeck. Once at Runbeck, the gate is closed. Every mail-in ballot that is returned in the county is sent to Runbeck first. Runbeck is scanning the Maricopa ballots before they are sent to the Maricopa County Elections Center. CORRECTION*
Control of the Senate still hung in the balance on Friday, forcing Senate Republicans to briefly put aside their intraparty blame game as they go all-in on winning Georgia’s Senate runoff.
The Senate majority could be decided in the coming days if Democrats defend the seats they hold in both Arizona and Nevada, where votes continue to be counted. But if the GOP picks up just one of those seats, Senate control will be determined by a Dec. 6 runoff election in the Peach State.
GOP operatives continued to express optimism about the party’s chances of picking up a seat in Nevada
Phoenix - Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Blake Masters on Friday to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, a contest that left Democrats one seat short in the battle for control of the chamber with two more races to be decided.
The win by Kelly, a former astronaut whose wife, Gabby Giffords, survived an assassination attempt when she was a U.S. lawmaker, meant Democrats had battled to a 49-49 tie in the race for the Senate. "I'm humbled by the trust our state has placed in me to continue this work," Kelly said on Twitter. Control of the Senate - and the shape of President
Chloe Cole, who was prescribed puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and then had her breasts removed when she was 15, says she will sue the medical group and hospital that facilitated the gender transition as a minor she now deeply regrets.
“The adults who were supposed to take care of and guide me as a child failed to do so and they will take responsibility for it,” (snip)
Cole, now 18 years old, and her legal team(snip) sent a letter of intent on Nov. 9 to sue the Permanente Medical Group, (snip) who “performed, supervised, and/or advised transgender hormone therapy and surgical intervention(snip)when she was between 13-17 years old.”
Nevada incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto survived a challenge, defeating Republican Adam Laxalt and helping Democrats hold onto U.S. Senate, according to the Associated Press call of the race.
Nevada was one of Republicans' top targets as they tried to break the Senate's 50-50 split, and Cortez Masto's reelection was a toss-up coming into the election. She was running neck and neck with Laxalt, Nevada's former attorney general who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Cortez Masto served two terms as Nevada's attorney general before becoming the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016. She campaigned on women's reproductive rights,
Tiffany Trump said ‘I do’ to her billionaire beau Michael Boulos in a magical wedding under the fading Florida sunshine this evening.
Former President Donald Trump’s youngest daughter looked resplendent in an iridescent long sleeved gown, her blonde hair styled in sleek waves and set off by diamond and peaks drop earrings. Her white veil trailed majestically behind her.
The fairytale outdoor event started at 5pm with the blissful bride walking down the aisle towards a rhododendron festooned arch - thousands of blooms in dusty pink, blue and white.
Her father - dressed like all the male guests in a black tux and bow tie
When Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart and New York Times columnist David Brooks joined PBS NewsHour host Judy Woodruff for their Friday recap of the week’s news, the natural topic of conversation was the election results. Capehart’s big takeaway was that things other than the economy, like abortion, saved Democrats while Brooks cheered the demise of populism inspired by Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Donald Trump.
After being asked by Woodruff what voters were saying on Tuesday, Capehart replied, “Simple message. Voters are trying to say, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.
The Biden administration has stopped taking applications for its student debt forgiveness program, citing a Thursday ruling from a federal judge in Texas that declared the program "unlawful."
On Friday, the Department of Education's student debt relief website displayed a message informing borrowers that "student loan debt relief is blocked." It added, "Courts have issued orders blocking our student debt relief program. As a result, at this time, we are not accepting applications. We are seeking to overturn those orders." The Education Department said it will hold the applications for the roughly 26 million people who have already applied for forgiveness.
Senator Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on Friday called the 2022 midterm elections a “complete disappointment.”
“Here’s what happened to us: Election Day, our voters didn’t show up, we didn’t get enough voters. It was a complete disappointment,” Scott said during an appearance on Fox News’s Hannity.
Host Sean Hannity asked, “Where did all this pie in the sky talk about a wave and a tsunami election come from? Because I never saw it.”