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Progressives, Journalists Worry: Are Polls
Once Again Overestimating Democrats?

Original Article

Posted By: Hazymac, 9/14/2022 11:03:49 AM

Spencer touched on this New York Times analysis yesterday, which I think is quite interesting and speaks to at least some of the points I raised in my pre-Labor Day 'electoral lay of the land' post. Polling errors have not been unusual or infrequent in recent cycles, with most of the misses inflating Democrats' standing, compared to their actual vote share performance when the votes were counted. Some of the more infamous examples in the last few years were Florida's statewide polling in 2018 (both Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis were projected to lose, then both Republicans won), and Maine's 2020 Senate race: Reminder that *not one*

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Reply 1 - Posted by: john56 9/14/2022 11:08:38 AM (No. 1277248)
You'd think that after a number of instances of "getting it wrong," and underestimating the Republican strength at the ballot box, some of these pollsters would say, "darn, we gotta fix this or we're never gonna get anyone to pay us to do this ever again." But you would be wrong. They continue to overpoll Democrats, use registered voters instead of likely voters, and call a two point lead for a Democrat as a "insurmountable lead," while a 2 point GOP lead is a "tightening race."
7 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Amanoftwistsandturns 9/14/2022 11:09:46 AM (No. 1277249)
Yeah but don’t discount the stupidity of Republicans. Lindsey Graham comes immediately to mind.
9 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: wilarrbie 9/14/2022 11:31:32 AM (No. 1277269)
Laying the groundwork for 'surprise election upset' explanations.
6 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: cor-vet 9/14/2022 11:44:26 AM (No. 1277279)
Who is actually dumb enough to believe any poll?
4 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: sw penn 9/14/2022 12:21:15 PM (No. 1277306)
This isn't completely the pollsters fault. dem have been faking and exaggerating their numbers for decades thru various vote fraud schemes. Without enforced union dues and vote fraud they would be revealed for what they really are. A rump political party...
4 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Kate318 9/14/2022 1:11:41 PM (No. 1277335)
The dems and the pollsters can sit and rot in the sewer they have created. This happens every election, and then they are shocked when the fantasy they created doesn’t materialize. But, they have a robust fraud machine as backup, just in case.
2 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Luandir 9/14/2022 2:09:54 PM (No. 1277374)
Of course the "pros" are overestimating - it's voter suppression by demoralization. The trick is not to let the vote-counters "overestimate."
0 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: EQKimball 9/14/2022 6:10:23 PM (No. 1277518)
Rigging elections is not as obvious when you first rig the polls.
2 people like this.

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