Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be
the most devastating software mistake
of all time
The Telegraph (UK),
by
David Richards
&
Konstantine Boudnik
Original Article
Posted By: Senex,
5/16/2020 4:19:47 PM
In the history of expensive software mistakes, Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious. The unmanned spacecraft was destroyed seconds after launch from Cape Canaveral in 1962 . . . But nobody died and the only hits were to Nasa’s budget and pride. Imperial College’s modelling of non-pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 which helped persuade the UK and other countries to bring in draconian lockdowns . . . could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost.
Source corrected by Staff. Please include location when it is not obvious.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
Urgent Fury 5/16/2020 4:46:10 PM (No. 413010)
Ferguson had a lot of help to make the model this damaging.
14 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
kono 5/16/2020 4:53:33 PM (No. 413013)
We need to distinguish between authentically-unintentional mistakes and purposeful errors. The 'hockey stick' (more like hokey stick) model largely based on work by Michael Mann and the IPCC's deliberate efforts to camouflage contradictory data with their 'hide the decline' tricks are what I consider the most devastating software mistake; but they were far from accidental. We may find that Imperial College's model was also contrived to mislead; but until then I'll refrain from asserting that it was a calculated con job.
10 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
DVC 5/16/2020 5:58:47 PM (No. 413034)
#2, is exactly correct. As of yet, I will not guess a motive.
Incompetence and stupidity are dramatically more common than actual malice. Probably 10,000 idiots with a title and an office for every actual malefactor like Prof. Mann.
A close look at the code would let you know. And Prof. Mann will let NOBODY see his code either. IMO, the sign of either an incompetent that knows he is, or a fraudster like Mann.
8 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
volksford 5/16/2020 6:25:27 PM (No. 413055)
You cant tell me that Fauci wasn't aware that Ferguson is a boob.
11 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
Omen55 5/16/2020 6:49:18 PM (No. 413074)
Lawsuits would fix him good.
6 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
Prometheus 5/16/2020 7:46:12 PM (No. 413126)
Numerous influenza like illnesses were documented in ERs across the US back in November and a December. Recent antibody tests confirm COVID in WA state earlier than estimated.
If you know someone who had these symptoms at that time, encourage them to get an antibody test and kill this theory, model, and insane lockdown
4 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
F16 guy 5/16/2020 7:52:14 PM (No. 413130)
Consistently wrong, yet repeatedly listened too.
1. In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
2. In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
3. On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.
Why isn't this guy in jail?
7 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
DVC 5/16/2020 9:46:15 PM (No. 413174)
Just lime Paul Ehrlich. 100% for decades, and yet people listen and buy books instead of laughing at him.
2 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Chuzzles 5/16/2020 10:26:18 PM (No. 413184)
Gee ya think? A pox on Fauci and Birx for using this model without attribution in the beginning of this mess. I only figured out their scam when Ferguson kept revising his model down, and funny thing, the numbers kept matching Fauci and Birx pressers. As to motive? This is being used to damage Trump and the national election coming up. Never let a crisis go to waste. With the ties that these two globalist ghoul doctors have to Obama, Clintons, and Bill Gates, do we really need to have somebody state the obvious?
4 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
DVC 5/16/2020 10:31:39 PM (No. 413188)
Just like...
0 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
DVC 5/16/2020 10:55:09 PM (No. 413194)
I shouldn't try to post from a phone....
Ferguson is like Paul Ehrlich, who has been 100% WRONG for decades, and yet people listen to him and buy his 100% BS books instead of laughing at him. And he retains a position at Stanford, instead of being fired as an incompetent and fool.
Sad to admit that this idiot graduated from KU.
2 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
NYbob 5/16/2020 11:28:47 PM (No. 413204)
Not to be confused with Niall Campbell Ferguson, the Scottish historian. Also controversial, but hated by the left and the New Yorker in particular, so he's got something right.
0 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
KTWO 5/17/2020 12:00:50 AM (No. 413233)
Many good comments.
But remember also that no government official or politician or expert was forced to accept Ferguson's arguments. There were plenty of other sources for such modeling and studies. And Ferguson had been badly wrong before in similar epidemics. His coding was not available, annotated, or validated and, apparently, no one demanded transparency.
It appears that he was the go-to expert only because he was said to be the go-to expert. He had the prestige of Imperial College and who wanted to cross swords with the establishment? And in the US our agencies accepted that too.
We may never know what went wrong re. Ferguson. But the real mistake was made in places like the CDC. In accepting his work w/o much examination.
OT. The BBC graphics of the pandemic are exceptional. Whether the numbers are right is another question; who knows about any of such data. I never post links but anyone can easily locate BBC coverage on the web.
2 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
franq 5/17/2020 8:29:40 AM (No. 413448)
I've maintained from the beginning that the experts™ were pulling these numbers out of their nether regions. Amazing how many seemingly intelligent people believe them.
0 people like this.
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