The Thin Façade of Authority

Dr. Hanson takes this opening into an excellent essay on bad coronavirus models and the bad things they can bring, and the controversy over the use of hydroxychloroquine. He is always worth our time to read...

One thing Hanson touches on is humility. Humility has been largely replaced by attitude. Attitude is a defensive mechanism. I'm not talking about such things as athletes talking smack, but people in general. It used to be a thing in the big, urban areas and cities. New York was known as the capital of disrespectful, unfriendly people who would react with suspicion if you spoke to them. It has seeped out of the big cities via the entertainment industry and media.

I did computer modeling for engineering as a career for just short of 40 years. If even my first grad student foray into computer modeling had been anything like as wildly, incompetently, ridiculousy, dangerously wrong as these "pandemic models", not only would I have been very ashamed of my self, but I would never have been retained in my job. THAT level of incompetence in engineering gets you FIRED, and rightly so. Their modeling concepts MIGHT be generally, theoretically sound, but ALL the input data is and was highly questionable to intentionally fraudulent. The "answers" were no better than a magic 8-ball or a Oija board - voodoo and BS, NOT science. GIGO - garbage in, garbage out, is a very old computer modeling saying. These folks truly had garbage, both missing/guesstimated data, and intentional falsehoods from Chinese propagandists. Time to open the country back up, sooner rather than later.

Excellent article. Gives the "elites" a good swift kick in the rear.

And remember - their "Climate models" are just as much BS as their "pandemic models".

This article is superb. He makes his points with gentle prose- IMHO.

Note that all the decisions-makers continue to enjoy their lifestyles while us deplorables struggle to get food and pay our mortgages. I am a retired teacher on a small pension (retired earlier than desired) who worked as a substitute to supplement my meager income. My district supervisor closed the schools on March 16 with a pep talk that it’s only for a week. He extended the closure to April 5 with another pep talk for us “meet the challenges of the coronavirus emergency and be strong and patient.” Of course, he and his paid-by-contract employees can do that easily. Not me. Now he announced closure on the rest of the school year! Is he still drawing his salary? You bet! Now at 73, I have a blank calendar all the way to September! I’m done with teaching! I’ll look for another job.

I question authority. I have nothing but contempt for arbitrary authority. The know-nothing governors of the 50 states exchibit arbitrary authority regarding the China virus. They cave to the howling mobs.

And my first ever major computer model, which took months to program and run, was used to build a prototype hybrid bus in 1974. After building the bus, testing proved that the model was in error by 0.5% over a 20 minute driving cycle, compared to the data taken from the actual prototype. THAT is good engineering modeling.

I was angry a month ago when the tyrants started the shutdown. I'm even madder now.

Hanson is always a Must Read for me. Just brilliant analysis. fta: " Elite wisdom, which in its allegiance to the scientific method eventually is likely to find an antidote and vaccination against the virus, still fails us in so many other ways in which it should not, in part also because its high priests rarely face the consequences of their own ideological and scientific pronouncements. Whatever the end result of this crisis, few at the WHO, CDC or the state health directors are going to lose their jobs in a way the small restaurateurs and Uber drivers most certainly will. " And there in lies the rub. They have nothing to lose no matter what they say, and certainly not their jobs. They can destroy this nation and millions could die of starvation but they would have saved us from the virus so mission accomplished. The straw that broke the camels back for me was Dr. Birx saying "Next week is not the time to go to the grocery store or pharmacy." I have always said to watch what elites do, not what they say to determine the true nature of any "emergency." I somehow doubt Queen Scarf didn't eat last week. So somehow she got groceries/food, so someone bought them and delivered them to her. Not everyone has servants and/or delivery options.

House Arrest: Do as I say, not as I do! So, the individual who issued the decree ordering us in Mendocino to remain in house arrest, currently until at least May 31st? She's been vacationing in San Diego with her husband! YOU are not allowed to travel, but she is! Spread this to everyone you know. The quintessence of Fascism. "Also Tuesday, Doohan confirmed that she was not currently in Mendocino County, but had been given permission to visit her husband and other family members in San Diego for two weeks. "There is nothing that I should be doing that I am not doing as your health officer,' said Doohan, adding that she had been “working every day with no days off since Jan. 31,' and is spending '12 hours a day at her computer, sheltering in place' while conducting numerous conference calls with many other officials and agencies daily. "'I will return to Mendocino County this Sunday in person, and I was there until two weeks ago, when I was given permission to go to San Diego to visit my husband,' Doohan said."

FOOD glorious FOOD The staff orders what the chef tells them to. Why is this difficult ? ???

I would argue that the "first" type of knowledge is untested in the real world. Yes, the elite evaluate new entries into their domain for their ability to regurgitate the required dogma. Yet little of that dogma has passed testing in the real world. Further, the elite assume that proving one case against reality can be extrapolated to all cases "mostly" being true. That can be hideously wrong. It can translate to the difference of predicting the deaths of 2 million vs. the reality of 20 thousand deaths, a error of 2 orders of magnitude, a rather BIG deal. That's like trying to decide what to do about 2 inches of flooding vs. 200 inches, 16 FEET of flooding. For the first, you put on your rubber boots and kids ride around on bicycles splashing each other. For the second, you evacuate and expect that everything will be destroyed. The thing is, the elite THINK that the collection of all their untested knowledge is sufficient to claim superiority and accuracy. They protect that superiority fiercely because it defines them. They reject and repel challenges because they undermine their status. The hardest thing for the elite to say is "I don't know." which may be the most accurate thing to say in real world challenges. "common sense, indeed humility as well, as a corrective to scientific arrogance was often lost in this crisis." Another thing to consider is that, given complex problems, the most likely place to find answers is NOT with the elite living in their silos of expertise but instead with generalists who can combine ideas from unrelated domains to form unique solutions that work. The elite are terrified of such an outcome because it labels them as unimportant, a crushing blow to their large egos.

FTA: "...our media class seemed to have little clue that hydroxychloroquine for those who cannot breathe need not be certified as 100 percent efficacious in their effort to inhale one more day." VDH has a gift for highlighting what is important.

I could write as well as Hanson but for one thing: I don't have his talent and can't do it. I'm always saying that his latest column is his best. This one is too.

IMHO, only a fool accepts any notion that the bogus number, bogus models, bogus predictions of millions dead, and the bogus need to now "shelter in place" are products of honest errors in calculation, modeling or overabundance of caution. This is the very epitome of never wasting a crisis. Much of what we do requires behavior modification for the human race to reach Utopia. The quickest way to change behavior is through inducement of a "significant life event", a turning-point leading to substantial changes in individuals' behaviors and attitudes. Medical professionals are expert at scaring patients into losing weight, modifying diet for diabetes, heart disease or high blood pressure. Oftentimes the studies used as a basis are industry-bought and then widely promoted in the popular literature. Of course, butter is bad...margarine better for you. Right? There is very little independent science these days. There is heavy competition for grants, offered by special interests. Often the research is done by a corporation or financed by an industry group. It is then pitched by their PR hacks. Government is no better. Think the FDA doesn't worry about the misapplication of hydroxychloroquine as an effective cure? Imagine how much is at stake if this cheap, abundant compound is as it appears to be. Not to mention the "reputation" and future authority of the FDA. Then there is the media...politicians...public officials...many, many others. They're not disinterested parties when trillions are on the table.

Back in 1979, I did a computer program for my boss to estimate needed inventory levels for a parts at our supply depot. I titled the 'items needed' column as S.W.A.G. He asked me what it was and I started to tell him the mathematical formula I used when he interrupted me and asked again, pointing to that title. "Scientific Wild Assed Guess" I replied. (I'd never seen that before and had totally made it up. Imagine my surprise that everyone uses/understands that now.) Calling a Wild Ass Guess? Humility. I read, and enjoyed and was informed by this article without realizing it was by VDH. Now that I know that is was, it's even better. FTA: On occasion, yesterday’s certainty is today’s skepticism and tomorrow’s ridiculousness. In other words, common sense, indeed humility as well, as a corrective to scientific arrogance was often lost in this crisis. SO TRUE

#18, we used the same term. In our engineering working group, we said "anyone can take a "Wild Assed Guess"...but it takes a computer and mathematics to make a Scientific Wild Asses Guess." 😀 Always with a smile, and a good bit of care and fear of getting something badly wrong.

Excellent analysis and direct communication by Dr VDH as usual! Living in Ohio, I would like to add that Dr Acton, advisor to Gov DeWine when asked about her basis for the 100,000 already infected, replied it is a 'guestimate'!!! As a person in Recovery for 27 yrs I can tell you that they carnage coming from the total shutdown of Ohio's economy in a tenuous Recovery community will far exceed any possible damage we might see by getting back to work....now! Safely...thoughtfully...but we need to move on. I don't blame Dr Acton for overreacting. Her mindset, the kneejerk reactions of so-called experts, bad modelling, and outright lying by the Chinese and the WHO made Ohio's decision the better safe than sorry one. As many of my friends might say, It's time to move on.