How Does COVID-19 Compare With
Regular Flu?
Powerline,
by
John Hinderaker
Original Article
Posted By: mc squared,
3/23/2020 10:42:06 AM
I prepared the chart below to put the current hysteria over the Wuhan virus in perspective. It presents simple data in a simple fashion. The first column shows average global influenza deaths per season, according to the Centers for Disease Control. CDC offered a range of 291,000 to 646,000; the column represents the midpoint of that range. The second column is flu deaths suffered in the U.S. in the 2017-2018 season, i.e. two years ago. CNN reported that number, citing CDC, as 80,000, but the current CDC site shows a lower figure of 61,000 deaths, which I have used here. The third column shows deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
DCGIRL 3/23/2020 11:00:17 AM (No. 355087)
I truly believe it’s a sham. I have said all along, the numbers don’t add up. I believe that Pres. Trump should re-evaluate in 7 days, not 15. I believe that the left is behind this because of the actions of the democrat governors...which one can create more panic than the other.
16 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
DVC 3/23/2020 11:12:47 AM (No. 355105)
Approximate bounds on the true death rate of the Wuhan flu are definitely well above the 0.1% death rate of common flu, and definitely something below the 3% death rate reported in China. Best guesses put the true death rate in a modern environment like the USA with first world health care probably in the 1.5% to 0.8-0.9% range.
Call it 1.2% plus or minus about 0.3%, or maybe a bit more on the plus/minus. The data is still not that great.
This makes it at least 12 times as deadly as the common flu. This means that if we treat it like the common flu, which is to basically ignore it totally (although there is a common flu vaccine), we should expect about 12 times the number of deaths. Since the common flu is reported by CDC to have killed about 20,000 Americans in this last 2019-2020 flu season, that would mean losing about 240,000 Americans to Wuhan flu.
If the Chinese death rate of 3% were to hold here, that would mean 30X the deaths of common flu or 600,000 deaths to be expected. That upper number is close to the number of deaths from the 1918 flu.
THIS is why we are going through this mess. To make 600,000 or 240,000 deaths into something far lower, maybe a total of 10,000 or 20,000 deaths, or even less if we are really careful. Since the death rate is much higher than common flu, the only tool we actually have is to lower the infection rate, by our more isolated, more careful lifestyles.
I don't want this disease, and don't want 240,000 to 600,000 dead Americans. Let's pray that we can thread the needle and keep from totally collapsing the economy, too.
7 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
MattMusson 3/23/2020 11:14:40 AM (No. 355112)
There are two different subgroups of the Flu. One is more deadly. The big thing is when hospitals get overwhelmed. That is when death rates skyrocket.
This Week is the week when we will find out if it really is a Demon.
4 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Chuzzles 3/23/2020 11:19:02 AM (No. 355117)
I suspect that the media is pulling a fast one with the numbers right now. Regular flu deaths are more than likely being mixed in with CV numbers in order to raise the count and justify their panic spreading. That is where Trump needs to focus on as well. Separate the numbers out, and be honest for a change Media.
12 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 3/23/2020 11:39:05 AM (No. 355164)
One of the things to take note of for the US, if our Chinese virus numbers don't reach the typical flu numbers it might be because of the steps taken to prevent it. One of the realities of a normal flu season is that we have accepted the death toll and don't do anything to stop it. We treat symptoms of those who get sick but don't do anything to stop the spread except to vaccinate. I'm not saying that will justify the extreme measures taken but I do thing it is going to be very hard to make comparisons and come up with strong evidence either way.
Then you have to ask whether what was done was worth it? Say about 40,000 die from flu annually in the US. Should we be doing more to prevent that? So far our decision is that the severe disruption to our way of life is NOT worth those 40,000 lives. Suppose the number was 80,000? 2 million? Like it or not, it's a coldly calculated numbers game. We don't always know the exact numbers but we have settled into a "normal" pattern of acceptance.
For the Chinese virus, great unknowns exist. Maybe it should have been looked at as just another flu? Did the media overhype it like they do the weather ever time a tornado, a "normal" phenomena, hits? Probably. DId certain elements of the government/medical establishment overhype it? Probably. Did Trump's leadership team overreact? Given the lessons of Katrina that the Left invented horror stories about and then beat W Bush over the head with, I don't think so. Images of patients dying because there were no ventilators or beds while the government did little is NOT good, even if a good chunk of it is due to dem mismanagement. A President cannot NOT react, especially when the political opposition is so eager to have something, ANYTHING to tear him down with. These are the polarizing times we are in. Trump is trying to navigate this HIS way; deft management and presidential reassurance, promoting private enterprise, hopefully reducing the death count and sickness, and attempting to blunt the economic costs to business and people.
Judging this on only the dynamics of the virus, this MAY be overkill. Mix in the political realities and a panicked population as evidenced by a TP fetish and it probably is NOT.
We will NEVER get an objective evaluation of the situation and reaction to it because it is enormously complex and tied in to politics and public reaction which can never be objectively measured or controlled.
10 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
judy 3/23/2020 11:39:27 AM (No. 355165)
Did he mention the states who requested the most aid are sanctuary states...NY, California, Washington...
11 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
GoodDeal 3/23/2020 11:47:04 AM (No. 355181)
I want statistic comparisons with deaths due to drunk driving accidents and another one for deaths due to alcoholism and drug addiction.
8 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
JackBurton 3/23/2020 12:06:56 PM (No. 355207)
Great post.
5 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Vaquero45 3/23/2020 1:06:50 PM (No. 355267)
The numbers don't lie. We're being played.
Print this, or save it in your computer, before it gets taken down because somebody doesn't want you to know the truth. Send it to all your friends.
Thanks for posting.
5 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Strike3 3/23/2020 1:07:14 PM (No. 355268)
Just what we suspected. More people die in traffic accidents. More people die from opioids. FAR more people die from abortions.
4 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
LC Chihuahua 3/23/2020 1:22:45 PM (No. 355300)
I'm hearing we all have to wait and we will have more cases than all of Europe in no time. Basically the same line we always keep hearing about climate change. Corona virus is the left's latest bogeyman. Unfortunately, we are all falling for it. There is no reason to react differently to this virus in comparison to other viruses in the past.
4 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
MDConservative 3/23/2020 1:24:43 PM (No. 355302)
We are entering another one of those epic times. When the legend becomes fact, we will forever be told the legend...American's in self-quarrantine saved the day. Any revisionist will be belittled for his "denial" of that "truth."
5 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
kdog 3/23/2020 4:38:43 PM (No. 355480)
They have different names and titles, but the same swamp that brought us Russia-Gate, Trump is unstable, Ukraine-Gate, and every other symptom of Trump Derangement Syndrome has brought this to us through the "esteemed" doctors of the CDC. Then sympathetic or just plain scared Governors followed suit and here we are, stock market and BOOMING economy in shambles while we are told to hide in our houses in order to be "good" Americans.
1 person likes this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
DVC 3/23/2020 4:48:36 PM (No. 355488)
When I was about 16 an older friend, recently out of the US Army, and far more worldly than I, told me of "The Ancient Chinese Curse"...."May you live in interesting times."
It seemed a bit humorous, and knowing that Chinese history is filled with horror shows of war, famine, etc. I understood it.
Boy, these are INTERESTING times all right. And the current Chinese curse from Wuhan works into the "Ancient Chinese Curse" pretty well.
1 person likes this.
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The graph speaks for itself. Which leaves me wondering just what dastardly scheme is the Uniparty foisting on all of us.