Shrinking America: the population will
soon decline by 50%
theAspenbeat.com,
by
Glenn Beaton
Original Article
Posted By: Big Bopper,
4/9/2026 4:04:16 PM
Mothers and fathers die. For the population to remain constant, the two of them need to produce about 2.1 children on average in order to replace themselves. (The extra 0.1 is necessary to offset the deaths of children who never reach reproductive age.) This figure is called the “fertility rate.”
Recent data shows that the fertility rate in the United States is nowhere near that 2.1 figure. It has instead dropped to an all-time low of about 1.6. American woman on average give birth to only 1.6 children.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
Mcscow sailor 4/9/2026 4:50:53 PM (No. 2090889)
Population growth has stalled for several reasons. Conception, Cost Benefit, Marriages declining. But the statement on SS…I have long offered to take my Ss donations + 3% (inflation dontch know) in lieu of a monthly. Can’t. And the funds are not there, having supported those who did not contribute.
20 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
stablemoney 4/9/2026 5:13:43 PM (No. 2090894)
Projections into an unknowable future are worthless. Who knows what parents and women are going to decide. But thanks for thinking up things for us to worry about. We would otherwise be quiet and enjoying the peace.
17 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
bpl40 4/9/2026 5:23:03 PM (No. 2090896)
With whites and non-Muslims refraining we will have a country evenly divided between blacks and Muslims. Good luck!
12 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Catherine 4/9/2026 5:35:33 PM (No. 2090898)
I really don't see a downside to a shrinking population. No, didn't read the article but do have my own opinion about it.
14 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
Big Bopper 4/9/2026 5:46:51 PM (No. 2090903)
Number 4: Why would anyone care what you think, if you don't bother to give reasons for those thoughts and didn't even bother to read the piece? We're not taking a survey here, we're having a discussion.
7 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
sunset 4/9/2026 7:24:47 PM (No. 2090910)
That should put this whole ‘housing shortage’ argument to rest.
12 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
earlybird 4/9/2026 7:28:35 PM (No. 2090911)
From what I have seen here, articles about having more chiledren are wasted on this audience. Been there, deone that.
How about OP/#5?
4 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
jalo1951 4/9/2026 7:50:06 PM (No. 2090916)
Grew up in the 1950's. Mom and Grandma stayed home and took care of the house/kid issues. I had 4 sisters and 1 brother. Dad worked full time. And we made it just fine. Didn't eat a weekly steak but we ate well and did not go hungry. Lots of friends, Other grandparents lived close and saw them frequently. You can't do that today. You cannot swing the bills on one salary unless you are highly paid and most of us aren't. Six kids. Most liberals would want to tar and feather you. In the 70's when I got my first "grown up job" our "new green deal" was no kids, abortions on demand, birth control. Throw in the Viet Nam war and it was an interesting time. I worked at BCBS with a wide variety of woman. Almost totally women. Older, more conservative. And the younger crowd. We had some interesting conversations. It is a hard job being mother and running a house. Most women today do not want that life and can't afford it anyway. I see this as a cheap excuse for the dems to start screaming that we need more aliens. This is the perfect excuse. I am expecting the call for amnesty to be making the rounds. Zero growth is what they always wanted. Times have changed, families are very different, women have so many more choices. There was a time when wife and mother was your world. Not any more. I fear we need to be concerned about the muslim population as they are reproducing like it was 1950. Of course in their world it is 1050 AD. And their women have absolutely no choices about anything.
15 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
DVC 4/9/2026 8:14:09 PM (No. 2090917)
50 years ago, Paul Ehrlich was telling that overpopulation would be causing mass starvation by the year 2000. He was totally full of beans. I'm not going to worry about this prediction for two reasons. I have a number kids in my family who have 3 to 6 grandkids, and may yet have more.
And....I'll never see it being in my middle 70s. If my family members wind up with more representation in the future than the insane abortion crazies....thevworldvwill be a better place.
12 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
LC Chihuahua 4/9/2026 8:14:42 PM (No. 2090918)
Somebody is trying to justify all the immigrants (legal and illegal, law abiding and criminal).
17 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
hershey 4/9/2026 8:57:59 PM (No. 2090925)
Well, I got my three...
3 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
Catherine 4/9/2026 8:58:02 PM (No. 2090926)
# 5 - I've been on Lucianne for a long, long time and you are the first person ever to be rude to me. Shame on you.
19 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
Snow Possum 4/9/2026 9:26:43 PM (No. 2090931)
I guarantee you a large part of this is the prevalence of pornography the last 30 years. It used to be if one wanted porn they had to risk being seen walking into a seedy (take that how you will) shop in a run down part of town and, that alone, likely was a deterrent.
Now it is piped in to every household 24/7/365. What would have landed someone in prison a half century ago is boring in this day and age.
I guarantee you nobody is giving up orgasms. But they are giving up relationships.
6 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
Kate318 4/9/2026 10:38:55 PM (No. 2090940)
Glen has been a real downer, lately.
5 people like this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
WV.Hillbilly 4/9/2026 11:11:09 PM (No. 2090943)
Is that 50% immigrants? I'm good with that.
5 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
JimBob 4/10/2026 4:05:16 AM (No. 2090952)
My thought is that it is a combination of birth control and that houses are so expensive that it takes both people in a couple working in order to pay the bills. The women put off having kids as they need to work full time.
Perhaps deporting the TWENTY MILLION illegal aliens will free up some housing, and the prices will drop (I saw an article just today- the title was that house sellers are reducing their prices)... If housing prices -and Insurance and Taxes!- drop to where a family can get by on one person working, then I believe we will see an increase in children from our working, productive citizens. If the numbers continue to 'not work', then our productive citizens will continue to work themselves into oblivion, and the layabouts and grifters will be the only ones having kids.... most of who will grow up to be layabouts and grifters... not a good trajectory for the country.
6 people like this.
Reply 17 - Posted by:
doctorfixit 4/10/2026 4:48:59 AM (No. 2090955)
American women are consumed with self-hate, and it's not without great assistance from our government, which despises European-Americans, and which produces the inflation that impoverishes nearly everyone and makes child rearing seem impossibly expensive. Add in feminism, cultural narcissism, and Woke ideology. One segment that does not suffer from self-hate is Muslims, who are prolific and intent on conquering by the numbers.
4 people like this.
Reply 18 - Posted by:
Jesuslover54 4/10/2026 5:03:31 AM (No. 2090958)
All my friends' children are having multiple kids. America will persist. Esp. Republicans are procreating.
Dasn't worry.
3 people like this.
Reply 19 - Posted by:
petrichor 4/10/2026 7:30:58 AM (No. 2090979)
It's not just an American problem. It's common throughout the world with the exception of Muslims.
5 people like this.
Reply 20 - Posted by:
felixcat 4/10/2026 9:44:59 AM (No. 2091041)
But hey, isn't that better for the Climate? /sarc
2 people like this.
Reply 21 - Posted by:
franq 4/10/2026 10:22:13 AM (No. 2091051)
I thank God my wife and I grew up and raised kids when we did. It was such a different world. We hail from Butler, PA, and were able to do it on my income. Sometimes I had side jobs, but had the energy back then!
3 people like this.
Reply 22 - Posted by:
Big Bopper 4/10/2026 10:39:40 AM (No. 2091061)
In reading these Comments, something finally dawned on me.
The people who click into the Comment page generally don't read the article they're commenting on. (Some of them plainly state as much in their Comment.) The people who DO read the article just click into it and thereby bypass the Comment page.
I think I'll join the second group.
0 people like this.
Reply 23 - Posted by:
LadyVet 4/10/2026 10:54:38 AM (No. 2091064)
I'm with #9. I have two liberal sisters neither will ever have grandchildren. My conservative brother and I have 16. He already has 2 great grandchildren. I counsel my young adult grandsons to plan to marry, stay married, and have several kids. It will become a status symbol and a sign of a powerful man to be reckoned with. Just look at images of Trump with his sons, daughter's, and grandkids. Then compare that to Obama and his two childless daughters and tell me which man projects power and influence. The oldest Obama daughter is approaching 30. The Roe Effect is here and it is real.
5 people like this.
Reply 24 - Posted by:
paral04 4/10/2026 10:55:09 AM (No. 2091065)
Fear not, the Democrats will import more Muslim freeloaders.
1 person likes this.
Reply 25 - Posted by:
DVC 4/10/2026 11:56:29 AM (No. 2091100)
"Soon"? Sorry, 77 years isn't 'soon'.
3 people like this.
Reply 26 - Posted by:
bighambone 4/11/2026 4:28:28 PM (No. 2091561)
Well what would happen to the USA if the native US citizen population declined 50%, and as the leftist Democrats want, the illegal alien population most of which is poor, generally uneducated, and originates in the so-called Third World, is allowed to enter and stay in the USA in unlimited numbers? It would not be long before the USA became demographically a minority-majority populated country that the leftist Democrats believe would keep them, the leftist Democrats in political power indefinitely, thus making it very possible on into the future for the leftist Democrats to transform today’s USA into some sort of future socialist utopia.
0 people like this.
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