The Contradiction in the Covid Inquiry’s
Use of Modelling
Posted By: Mercedes44, 11/30/2025 4:07:23 AM
The Covid Inquiry’s headline figure that an earlier lockdown (March 16th 2020) “would have” resulted in approximately 23,000 fewer deaths in England derives from a counterfactual simulation performed by Professor Ferguson’s Imperial College modelling group, who reported a 48% reduction in first-wave mortality when comparing a March 16th intervention to the actual March 23rd lockdown. But a close reading of the inquiry’s own evidence shows that this modelling claim has the same structural vulnerabilities that produced some of the worst modelling failures in recent medical history.
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The fallout from the 2020 COVID-19 debacle is still raining down. In the latest episode, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has now found evidence linking the coronavirus vaccines to as many as 10 child deaths, and the federal agency is responding by ramping up new vaccine approval regulations.
At least part of this was done at the urging of the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. We should note that at least part of the new approach is not just on how vaccines are delivered, but how they are developed.
As we reported, The New York Times put out a story that claimed President Donald Trump was showing signs of "fatigue," claiming there was a change in the number of events that he was holding/attending compared to the first year of his first term, and Americans were seeing him "less than they used to."
This is utter bunk, as he seems to have been continuously working since he hit the ground in his second term, and is constantly available and responding to the press. If anything, he's too available, because he wants to get his points out to the American people;
The Covid Inquiry’s headline figure that an earlier lockdown (March 16th 2020) “would have” resulted in approximately 23,000 fewer deaths in England derives from a counterfactual simulation performed by Professor Ferguson’s Imperial College modelling group, who reported a 48% reduction in first-wave mortality when comparing a March 16th intervention to the actual March 23rd lockdown.
But a close reading of the inquiry’s own evidence shows that this modelling claim has the same structural vulnerabilities that produced some of the worst modelling failures in recent medical history.
The Puppet Show That Ran America
3 replies
It wasn't a surprise when we learned about the latest testimony release from the House Oversight Committee; it felt more like the confirmation of what Americans had long sensed.Working inside the White House, staff understood that the man they placed before the camera couldn't lead the country, yet they said so privately while publicly denying it.
Writing at our sister site, Twitchy, Doug P. shared the testimony.The staff knew the presidency had become nothing more than a managed performance: They moved him, dressed him, staged him, guided him, and fed him lines.
As we reported, a judge tossed the case against former FBI Director James Comey for technical reasons, ruling the appointment of the interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, who had filed the matter, was invalid. So it wasn't a ruling on the merits of the case, and it was dismissed without prejudice, so it could potentially be filed again, although there's a potential question about the statute of limitations.The Justice Department (DOJ) has already indicated that it would appeal that decision. So I don't think Comey should be taking that victory lap just yet, because it surely sounds like more is coming.
On Friday, President Donald Trump offered yet another devastating characterization of one of the Democrats’ legion of America-Last, far-left politicians. All of Trump’s rhetorical cylinders were firing as he gave us this:
The “swaddling hijab” business is a nice little nod to the Christmas season, and while this is Trump at his most acidic, there is no denying any of it. In fact, Ilhan Omar herself has made it clear more than once that she has little but contempt for the land that welcomed her and her family and gave them refuge from her violent, anarchic, war-torn homeland.
After President Donald Trump announced a pause on immigration from Third-World countries and particularly Afghanistan, leftists blew their tops. But Trump has the law on his side.Trump’s White House fired back at critics not with a lengthy diatribe, but by simply quoting from the Immigration and Nationality Act, Section 212(f). This explicitly allows the president of the United States to suspend entrance of a group of aliens deemed dangerous to national security and national interests.
The section above-mentioned, and posted on X by the White House, says:
President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to take on Obamacare; good for him — but any lasting solution to this ongoing disaster will require major surgery.
In the decade since it really got going, the Affordable Care Act has only made health care more expensive, even as it hid the soaring costs from most consumers — who’ve still had to deal with ever-narrower freedom of choice.
It seems the White House has realized what a monster it faces; after news outlets reported some of the ideas under consideration, Team Trump put off announcing anything as it apparently takes another look under the hood.
Brad Lander won’t be New York City comptroller much longer — and that’s good news for Gotham’s rank and file.
It’s not just because Lander is a knee-jerk leftist who rivals Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani when it comes to his out-of-touch patter on economic policy.
He’s also a dullard seemingly unaware of the core function of the job he’s held for the last four years.
Lander, as the city’s chief fiscal officer, is the fiduciary, investment adviser and custodian of the city’s $300 billion pension fund system.
He’s supposed to make sure the funds are invested in securities that grow in value so they can “fully fund” the retirement accounts of all the city’s police,
More than 5,000 Afghans brought to the US after American forces withdrew from the country got flagged for “national security” issues, Department of Homeland Security data obtained by The Post reveals.
In all, the feds uncovered “potential derogatory information” on a total of 6,868 people who came from Afghanistan as part of President Biden’s Operation Allies Welcome in 2021.
Of that number, 5,005 came up with a national security concern, while 956 people had “public safety” concerns and 876 were flagged for fraud, according to the data.DHS provided the information to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee,
President Donald Trump late Thursday said that the United States may “almost completely” eliminate the income tax due to the rising tariff revenue.
n the next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting, or maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax,” Trump said during an event on Thursday.
“Could be almost completely cutting it because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large,” he added.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in June projected that the tariff increases will reduce the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
Breitbart News Economics Editor John Carney wrote:
On the sidelines of a trade and economic discussion with the govt of Kyrgyzstan and the CSTO summit, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin took questions from media about the Ukraine -vs- Russia conflict.
Now, due to the significance of his remarks, and keeping in mind these responses are in the Russian language, it becomes important for WESTERN READERS to evaluate the translation. Vladimir Putin speaks in direct terms that are often not understood in western translation, the nuance within the translation is important.
That said, I am going through the remarks;
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WTC worker who ‘narrowly escaped’
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A former World Trade Center worker who “narrowly escaped” the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks has been beaten to death by three teens — one of whom was just 12 at the time of the attack, according to officials.
Long Island native Roger Borkum, 64, was found “severely beaten” just before midnight on Oct. 19 in Downtown Jacksonville, FL., after three teens were seen “kicking and stomping” him, according to an arrest report from the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office.
Convicted killer Bryan Kohberger was recently accused of throwing a tantrum over the fruit selection at a maximum-security Idaho prison where he is serving multiple life sentences for the murders of four University of Idaho students in 2022. The 31-year-old, housed at the Idaho Maximum Security Institution, has reportedly been "complaining about the type of bananas he’s being served," according to Chris McDonough, a retired homicide detective employed by the Cold Case Foundation.
"They’re not the kind that he likes," McDonough told the Daily Mail.
President Donald Trump late Thursday said that the United States may “almost completely” eliminate the income tax due to the rising tariff revenue.
n the next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting, or maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax,” Trump said during an event on Thursday.
“Could be almost completely cutting it because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large,” he added.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in June projected that the tariff increases will reduce the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
Breitbart News Economics Editor John Carney wrote:
CIA Cut Deal Bringing "Afghan Zero Unit"
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Fighters, Including Accused Guardsman
Killer To The U.S. 15 replies
The Afghan national who has been charged with shooting two members of the West Virginia National Guard this week was reportedly a member of the elite Afghan "Zero Unit" forces backed by the CIA -- with the U.S. spy agency apparently having struck a deal to bring thousands of the fighters and their families to the United States. . . . the terms of the deal were that if the Zeroes helped secure Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) during the chaotic non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO) . . . the fighters and their families would earn an airlift to the U.S..
Yesterday, President Trump announced his intention to nullify any Joe Biden document signed by autopen, that did not carry cognitive understanding of Biden. [SEE HERE]
The House investigation into the White House handlers of Joe Biden, now takes focus.
“As part of the Oversight Committee’s investigation into The Biden Autopen Presidency, Chairman James Comer and Committee staff conducted transcribed interviews with several of Joe Biden’s former senior aides and advisors. […] Their testimony revealed that President Biden’s cognitive deterioration was real, visible, and widely discussed inside the West Wing.
Treasury's Bessent Says Department Working
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday his Department is working to cut off federal benefits to illegal immigrants at the direction of President Donald Trump. Bessent wrote in a post on X that "we are working to cut off federal benefits to illegal aliens and preserve them for American citizens. He said the Treasury "announced it will issue proposed regulations clarifying that the refunded portions of certain income tax benefits are no longer available to illegal and other non-qualifies aliens, including the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Additional Child Tax Credit, the American Opportunity Tax Credit, and the Savers Match Credit."
New York City’s mayor-elect put out a statement about the National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom, who died after being shot in Washington, DC this week. Mamdani’s message is being slammed on Twitter/X for leaving out or twisting rather important details about the incident.
See if you can spot what is wrong with his message. Take a look below: Passing? She just passed away? That’s what happened? Many noticed that the X comment from Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect of New York City, in response to the news of Beckstrom’s death, was seriously lacking in some fundamental things.
Even as presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to make another trip to the Kremlin to present the revised 18-point peace plan for Ukraine and Russia (see New Development: Ukraine Embraces Trump's Peace Plan Essentials – RedState), Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that no deal is imminent. Putin used the occasion of the post-Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit press conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Thursday, to make it clear that there would be no agreement of any sort signed with Ukraine. If you aren’t familiar with the CSTO,
10/22/25 Testimony: Modernizing Health
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My Shark Tank companies hate selling on Amazon but most don't have a choice. about 162 Americans shop there, and if you want to reach them, you have to play by Amazon's rules. Amazon knows this and takes full advantage . . . Insurance companies work the same way. More than 300 million Americans have some kind of coverage -- commercial, Medicare, or Medicaid. Every one of those plans hires a Pharmacy Benefit Manager, or PBM, to run drug benefits. Three giant PBM's -- all owned by the biggest insurance companies -- control pharmacy benefits for 270 million Americans.
The holidays are getting underway, and most of us are in a festive mood. (Especially me, having just returned from a terrific week in Amsterdam, about which I will do a post if there is overwhelming public demand.) But to be honest, the news wasn’t great. The issue of Somali fraud in Minnesota finally went national in a big way, which you could see as a positive, but the underlying reality is too depressing to contemplate. The search for peace in Ukraine continued to be elusive. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s political career flamed out. Six Democratic politicians encouraged service members to engage in insurrection. And, at week’s end, an Afghan “refugee"
Heartland America: After the Collapse
of Democrat’s EV Socialism, Bipartisan
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In response to the Trump Administration's tariffs aimed at reshoring American manufacturing, Stellantis this fall announced $13 billion in new investment in U.S. operations. Spread across Midwest plants in Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana, the investment – the largest in company history - is estimated to create over 5,000 jobs across all four of the transatlantic manufacturer's American brands (Jeep, Dodge, Ram, and Chrysler) plus an additional 20,000 jobs at Stellantis suppliers. "I'm extremely ecstatic about it. Without these tariffs, this probably wouldn't have happened," said Eric Graham, president of United Auto Workers Local 140 representing workers at Michigan's Warren Truck, which stands to gain two new vehicles,
The Covid Inquiry’s headline figure that an earlier lockdown (March 16th 2020) “would have” resulted in approximately 23,000 fewer deaths in England derives from a counterfactual simulation performed by Professor Ferguson’s Imperial College modelling group, who reported a 48% reduction in first-wave mortality when comparing a March 16th intervention to the actual March 23rd lockdown.
But a close reading of the inquiry’s own evidence shows that this modelling claim has the same structural vulnerabilities that produced some of the worst modelling failures in recent medical history.