What is In Store for Russia?

I can tell that he is a native Russian speaker because of his rare, but real, misuse of articles. Articles do not exist in the Russian language, and are essentially impossible for even extremely fluent and skilled English speaking Russians to get 100% right. We had a overqualified secretary in Moscow who had a university degree in English and French literature, spoke superb English, a really educated woman....and she still would occasionally mess up using an article. So, I can tell that he is a native Russian speaker and this fits with all his insights. I saw many bright young grad students in Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia coming up. Not so much in Russia.

Fraden's piece is an interesting been-there perspective. While I never traveled to Russia on business before I retired, I did travel extensively to Europe (western, and eastern several ex-Soviet Union satellite countries). While the slave mentality in Europe does not appear to be as strong as Fraden describes it for Russia, many Europeans are wired to not challenge authority especially government authority. This would seem to be an artifact of two world wars that decimated Europeans who were willing to fight for their values and were wired and determined to protect themselves. It's like the gene pool in Europe was diluted to exclude the gene and behaviors that promote independence, determination, and open-mindedness. If, forbid, that Europe found itself embroiled in another world war, I wonder if the thought has occurred to them that next time they are on their own given the current political crisis in America and the world. The late Gen. Colin Powell stated that the United States never intended to colonialize Europe during the wars. It merely asked for enough land to commemorate and bury its dead soldiers, nurses, and doctors.

Ukraine is a gift that keeps on giving on both sides of the equation. Okay, it keeps Putin in power...it also allows the US to buy new and improved weaponry using a shell game of "foreign aid" to Ukraine. We "give" them money, they "buy" our old stuff with that money, and the US spends the take on new stuff. Just wash, rinse and repeat for profitability and employment. Russia is and has been, even during the Soviet era, a second-rate, Not Great Power. Except for its missiles, it had no capability to project power much beyond its borders. It has never been particularly aggressive, mainly defending Mother Russia by retreating and letting winter work its magic on Napoleon and Hitler. Japan kicked its butt in 1904/05, and that was never forgotten. And then there was their recent Afghan debacle. This state of affairs was evident to anyone who visited the Soviet Union or drove to Berlin. The East German Autobahn was regularly littered with broken down Russian vehicles, while crack border troops were too busy trading uniform brass for chocolate and cigarettes. The Warsaw Pact has a serious concern about the loyalty of non-Soviet forces. The Hungarians essentially ignored communism. Everyone knew the Eastern Bloc was a figment, a great TV villain. And everyone needs a villain. For the US and NATO it was a godsend, especially Czechoslovakia in '68. Defense spending is good for the economy and a great unifier at home. Today, NATO is the US bearing the burdens and NATO forming a dozen effete dwarfs who had no fear of the Russians, placing their trust and reliance for energy, for example. Until NATO made a show of Ukraine, the pipelines were wide open. Russia will be what Russia has been. It's like that cousin with worn heels and shiny pants. Doubtless it will be used as a villain, as it has been. Government there will be some level of dictatorship, which seems to be the evolution of Western Democracy these days. As my German landlord once said, "Sometimes a little dictatorship is good." Gee, we have to save the planet and ensure income equity...no?

You peel back much of Russia and there's nothing. It's one big parade that marches around a square with the same tanks, missiles and men fifty times to make the PM smile with glee. Russia is fake and a front Putin wants to be Stalin in the old USSR but those days are seeming over. Russia is sucking the hind teat of China right now. The puny neighbor to the south Ukraine just nulled Putin's flexing bear muscle now he can't exit to save face.

Re #2, the colonization of North America and Australia, plus southern Africa was a "filtering process" for Europe. Those who could not abide religious persecution, overbearing kings and such, just LEFT, or were 'transported' to "the colonies". The governments got rid of troublemakers, and many who valued freedom and independence and religious freedoms over all else, left of their own accord. My wife's family arrived here from France via Belgium, sealed in barrels, smuggled onto ships to get away from religious persecution of the times. Those who stayed were largely accepting of kings, queens and "their place" as subjects, and being told what to do with their lives by "their betters". Not troublemakers, the "get alongers". And their adventuresome young men were slain by the millions in WW1 and WW2, leaving the less adventurous, the less brave, the ones more willing to seek safety in a "war job that exempts service", etc. Yes, huge numbers of exceptions, but these are general broad trends which shaped the kind of people that Europe has. And in Russia for five centuries, if you weren't happy about being a serf/slave.....you were probably quickly out of the gene pool. Five centuries of breeding draft horses, leaves relatively few race horses in the genetic makeup. And conversely, all those troublemakers, those folks to whom religious freedom was central to their lives, those who would NOT bend a knee to the king.....wound up in the USA to a large extent. And there we were further filtered by the great western migration. If you wanted "free land", be it in Kain-tuck 'over yonder mountains', or across the entire continent for land in California or Oregon, or seeking gold in the west....if you were found to be timid, or incapable, or just too weak, unable to win the fights ....you likely died on the journey or soon after. Americans are rough, tough stock, bred from troublemakers who insisted on being free citizens, not subjects, and the survivors of harsh conditions in our wildernesses, mostly gone now. And yet, the Communists in our schools are managing to cripple a wide swath of these people with their brainwashing, hate and lies. Sad times.

This ignores the inevitable clash between a decaying Russia and an ascendant China which needs raw materials and living space

Russia had great aspirations but was always ruled by fools who never understood had to win the Great Game. Which the Brits played better.

For years, Ukrainian college students would work in the summer in the numerous Ocean City Maryland restaurants and hotels where they would earn money for school. Everyone I came in contact with spoke fairly good English, were taking some sort of technical courses in college, and when you looked at them, they looked just like any other U.S. college student. The Ocean City government worked with the restaurant and hotels to help provide housing for these students, since the cost of housing and everything else in OC doubled or tripled in price for the summer months. These costs kept many U.S. students from seeking summer employment in OC and they looked closer to home for summer jobs. Some employers in OC did provide housing for their summer help, but many did not.

They will find out that they have one tenth of the economy GDP of Canada. Picture Canada invading California. Trudeau versus Whatisname. My money's on Whatsisname.

#5 OT, but my grandfather came from 'Kaintuck' to a small farm in southwest Missouri. Traded his team of oxen and wagon for the farm.

Excellent thread today, folks. Big thanks.

Soviet Russia appeared to be a superpower when raw industrial production and lots of military hardware were the main measurements. By the time Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative they had fallen too far behind to compete. And much to the surprise of our intelligence agencies, they soon collapsed. If Russia had charted a different course after the USSR unraveled they could be a super-sized Italy today. But they will end up like the Democratic Republic of Congo.