The damage done by probability blindness
Posted By: DVC, 6/17/2021 6:48:51 PM
As Bishop Joseph Butler said in 1736, "probability is the very guide of life." The coronavirus has generated more blind fear than perhaps any other event in recorded history. That fear is blind because it ignores easily calculated probabilities. The reported coronavirus deaths in the U.S. now stand at six hundred thousand. The population of the U.S. is approximately 330 million. When you divide deaths by the population, the number is less than two-tenths of one percent. As catastrophes go, that is a relatively small number. There is a wide disparity of coronavirus deaths among age groups. That fact has been deliberately ignored
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Cruz calls for CDC to 'follow the science'
and scrap airline mask mandate before
July 4 holiday 0 replies
and scrap airline mask mandate before
July 4 holiday 0 replies
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is urging the Biden administration to lift its long-standing requirement for people to wear masks on airplanes and other forms of mass transit ahead of the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend.
Airline travelers ages 2 and older currently have to wear face masks in order to fly, despite the widespread availability of COVID-19 vaccines and the CDC's recent declaration that fully vaccinated people can travel safely. "Biden’s CDC needs to ‘follow the science’ and end its mask mandate for vaccinated Americans on airplanes and public transportation," Cruz tweeted Monday morning. This followed a similar post Sunday night in which he added
CNN’s "The Lead with Jake Tapper" has shed a staggering 75% of its audience since the liberal network experienced a January spike in viewers.
Tapper’s program averaged 2.8 million viewers in January but settled for only 706,000 in the 4 p.m. ET timeslot from May 31 through June 23, losing three-quarters of its audience in the process. Tapper’s second-quarter viewership is down 49% compared to the first quarter. While January featured a historic news cycle with the Capitol riot, the inauguration of President Biden and the lead-up to former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial, his direct timeslot competition on Fox News
A woman missing in the deadly Florida condo building collapse called her husband as the tragedy unfolded — and said she saw a sinkhole where the pool used to be before the line went dead, according to a new report.
“It was 1:30 a.m., I’ll never, never forget that,” Mike Stratton, husband of Cassie Stratton, 40, told the Miami Herald.
The model, actress and Pilates instructor woke her husband in Washington, DC, and frantically told him that their building was shaking before making the startling comments about a sinkhole, according to the outlet.
A former South Carolina state trooper who led the 2015 cold case involving an alleged fatal hit-and-run is speaking out exclusively to Fox News, describing how the prominent Murdaugh family refused to cooperate with the investigation, and he was suspicious of the circumstances surrounding the young victim’s death.
Todd Proctor was the lead state police investigator working the unsolved death of 19-year-old Stephen Smith, who was alleged to have been killed by a hit-and-run driver in Hampton County six years ago. The cold case was recently reopened as state law enforcement agents continue to investigate the deaths of Maggie Murdaugh, 52, and her 22-year-old son, Paul Murdaugh.
Hours after his extradition to US was approved, John McAfee found dead in his Spanish jail
cell 7 replies
cell 7 replies
Move over, Jeffrey Epstein. Another high-profile prisoner has been found dead in his jail cell before his trial, with authorities claiming suicide. John McAfee, who wrote the first commercial anti-virus software, sold the company bearing his name, and later urged customers to uninstall the software, was widely described as "eccentric." He lived for a while in Belize but left that country in 2013 after being wanted for questioning by police over a murder. He made and lost most of a fortune believed to have totaled $100 million. McAfee was arrested in October last year at Barcelona Airport at the request of U.S. authorities
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman rattles Muslim clergy, challenges
sources of sharia 12 replies
Salman rattles Muslim clergy, challenges
sources of sharia 12 replies
This is huge. Those of us who have had hopes that Saudi Arabia can be transformed from a sponsor of hard-line jihad into a modernizing force in the Islamic world have cause for optimism.
Remarks made by the real ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), suggest that he is carefully laying the ground for a fundamental reinterpretation of orthodox Islam.
Tarek Fatah, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, writes in the Toronto Sun:
When the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, challenged the fundamental precepts of Islamic Sharia in an interview on April 28
A New Jersey school board has reversed plans to remove all holiday names from their school calendar after parents expressed outrage at an emergency meeting on the decision.
The Randolph Board of Education voted 8-1 Monday to reinstate the holidays after dozens of members of the community voiced outrage during the public comment portion of the meeting.
Tom Tatem, a Randolph Township father of four who created a petition demanding school board members resign, and James Jacobi, a Randolph Township father of three, told "Fox & Friends" Tuesday that the victory should be a lesson in transparency for towns across America.
In the last two days, three interesting stories have emerged from the Middle East. The first story is about Ebrahim "the Butcher" Raisi's election as president in Iran; the second is Israel's announcement that this election forces it to protect itself against this butcher; and the third is news that Iran's sole nuclear power plant abruptly shut down. The first and second stories are quite obviously connected. The real question is whether the third story is a promise of things to come or is just a coincidence.
That Raisi was going to be president is no surprise to regular American Thinker readers.
The man allegedly seen in viral video stealing a garbage bag full of items as he rode a bike through a San Francisco Walgreens location was nabbed over the weekend – while he was "clearing shelves" at a different drug store, officials have announced.
Jean Lugo-Romero was arrested around 8:30 a.m. Saturday after officers spotted him entering a store on Haight Street, San Francisco Police Department said in a recent press release. At the time, police officers who recognized him followed Lugo-Romero, 40, into the drug store "to find him clearing shelves of cosmetics and placing the merchandise into a duffel bag,"
Don Surber posted an amazing pair of maps yesterday, showing the way that federalism is working to enable citizens to defend themselves with firearms. While the federal Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms, states regulate firearms licensing, and in the past 35 years, a landslide of states has recognized the right to carry a firearm. Check out the night and day contrast between 1986 and 2021.
Don comments:
Without firing a shot (except at the firing range), Americans have won a revolution -- state by state.
Schadenfreude overload: MSNBC's
Nicolle Wallace suffers 80% ratings
decline in the key demographic 20 replies
Nicolle Wallace suffers 80% ratings
decline in the key demographic 20 replies
I have despised Nicolle Wallace ever since I learned of the ways she sabotaged the vice presidential run of Sarah Palin, whom she was supposedly helping run for national office. In my book, she is a vile snake. Since then, she has gone as fully left as David Brock, another onetime conservative who went to the dark side, trying for years to get Rush Limbaugh thrown off the air, destroy Fox News, and discredit every conservative.
Wallace's show on MSNBC thrived while there was the Trump presidency to attack and spew hatred at. But it turns out that without Trump, not too many people want to watch her.
As I have learned the hard way, the science behind climate change has no more predictive real-world value than the science behind COVID. When put to the test, scientists cannot tell you what will happen next year, let alone next century, but that does not stop them from pretending they can.
Three years ago, my new neighbor here on Lake Erie asked if I wanted to go in with him on a seawall. Having spent thirty summers on the Rust Belt Riviera, I politely declined. As I explained, on only one occasion during those years had waves lapped against even the base of my heavily vegetated ten-foot bank.
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Today is Prime Day. Imagine trying to explain that to an alien or to a time traveler from the 20th century. “Amazon turned 20 and on the eve of its birthday, the company introduced Prime Day, a global shopping event,” reads Amazon’s formal telling of the ritual’s 2015 origins. “Our only goal? Offer a volume of deals greater than Black Friday, exclusively for Prime members.” The holiday was invented by a corporation in honor of itself, to enrich itself. It has existed for six years and is observed by tens of millions of people worldwide. I hope you are spending it with your loved ones.
EUGENE, Ore. — There's a certain routine for the top-three finishers in an event at the U.S. Olympic track and field trials, after they secure their spots on Team USA. They're handed an American flag and a bouquet of flowers. They stand on the podium. They take some pictures. Then they take a victory lap around Hayward Field, to cheers from the crowd. (Snip) Berry, 31, has previously protested while on the podium at an international sporting event and become a strong advocate of athletes using their platforms to speak about issues that matter to them. As the national anthem played
First Lady Jill Biden is tipped to visit Japan for the Tokyo Olympics on a solo trip in place of President Joe Biden, the Yomiuri Shimbun daily reported Sunday.
The two countries are seeking ways for the president’s wife to attend the opening ceremony, set for July 23, as well as meet with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and other senior diplomatic officials during her stay, according to sources cited by the outlet.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reports the lone dispatch of Jill Biden is regarded as a signal honor for the hosts that “sends a message of the importance of the relationship with Japan.”
Democrats and the fake news media are clearly in a panic over the push to audit the results of the 2020 election.
Why is that?The fake news media for years pushed that the 2016 election was stolen by Russia’s involvement with the Trump campaign. This was a complete lie created by deep state operatives and pushed by the FBI and the toxic mainstream media for years to damage President Trump and his administration.But now, after a senile man who hid in his basement “won” the 2020 election, the Democrat-media complex is outraged and panicked that Republicans
Jill Biden joined Joe Biden in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington as he signed a bill to designate the National Pulse Memorial in Orlando.
Joe also delivered remarks on LGBTQ+ Pride month, and the liberal media said that should explain Jill’s decision to opt for her Dolce & Gabbana patchwork dress from the Spring 2021 collection.
Joe Biden ordered airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in the Iraq-Syria border region, the Pentagon said in a statement on Sunday.“At President Biden’s direction, U.S. military forces earlier this evening conducted defensive precision airstrikes against facilities used by Iran-backed militia groups in the Iraq-Syria border region. The targets were selected because these facilities are utilized by Iran-backed militias that are engaged in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against U.S. personnel and facilities in Iraq,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said.
Dozens of women went topless for New York City's annual Dyke March Saturday—as smaller than usual crowds turned out for Sunday's main Pride parade amid COVID restrictions. The Dyke March—which celebrates lesbian pride—began at Bryant Park and finished at Washington Square Park, where couples splashed around in the fountain and embraced. For some campaigners showing breasts in public is a form of protest to assert the right of women to dress as they wish. The main Pride parade Sunday is being touted as a virtual event, with a smaller scale march across three blocks. Organizers predict 'millions' will watch on TV.
Hammer thrower Gwen Berry has defended turning her back on the US flag during the national anthem at the US Olympic trials, writing on Instagram 'I meant what I said. Period,' after being inundated with backlash online. Berry, 31, was on the podium at the trials in Oregon on Sunday when the anthem started playing. Her white competitors, DeAnna Price and Brooke Andersen, turned to face the flag and placed their hands on their hearts but Berry, a vocal BLM activist, turned to face the stands, put her hands on her hips and then held up a t-shirt bearing the words 'athlete activist'. In interviews later, she said
Members of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops are trying to clarify their position and deal with the confusion caused by their announcement last week that they would create a teaching document on the Holy Eucharist or the meaning of Communion. The statement caused many to speculate that the church was looking to deny President Joe Biden and other pro-abortion Catholic politicians from receiving Communion.
The speculation was misplaced, said the bishops.“There will be no national policy on withholding Communion from politicians,” the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops said in a Q&A document dated June 21.
William Barr Speaks
32 replies
Donald trump is a man consumed with grievance against people he believes have betrayed him, but few betrayals have enraged him more than what his attorney general did to him. To Trump, the unkindest cut of all was when William Barr stepped forward and declared that there had been no widespread fraud in the 2020 election, just as the president was trying to overturn Joe Biden’s victory by claiming that the election had been stolen.
After claiming to be “personally” offended over accusations the drag queen-loving U.S. military is woke, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley said, “I want to understand white rage, and I’m white.”
Oh, okay, because that’s not woke at all.
This happened during congressional testimony on Wednesday. Then he added this bone-chilling explanation: “What is it that caused thousands of people to assault this building and try to overturn the Constitution of the United States of America?” The implication being it was “white rage.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki defended hammer thrower Gwen Berry's right to 'peacefully protest,' after the Tokyo-bound athlete turned her back on the US flag during Olympic trials. Psaki told Fox News' Peter Doocy at Monday's press briefing that while she and President Joe Biden hadn't spoken specifically about the incident, Biden is 'incredibly proud to be an American and has great respect for the anthem and all that it respresents, especially for our men and women serving in uniform all around the world.'
'He would also say, of course, that part of that pride in our country means recognizing there are moments
Comments:
The author makes some great points, and he shows what I have commented upon here a number of times.
My county has had very detailed stats on this disease available online, updated daily, and broken out by age groups since early last year.
The things he says have been clear the whole time to those who took the time to look at the available information and understand it. But the people in charge wanted control, and that overrode reason.