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Post Hoc vs. Propter Hoc

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Posted By: tisHimself, 4/26/2020 6:19:02 AM

Curves are flattening worldwide thanks to stringent lockdown efforts.” That bulletin from one of my favorite magazines made me sit up. “Really?” I thought, “Is it because of the stringent lockdown that the ‘curves’ are flattening?” For that is what “thanks to” means here, right? Because, “propter” in Latin. No one needs to ask what sort of curves we are talking about here. There is only one subject that is being discussed now towards the end of April 2020: coronavirus, the insidious cold bug brought to the world by the Chinese Communist Party. After several weeks of rising numbers of cases and deaths,

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Reply 1 - Posted by: ROLFNader 4/26/2020 8:12:33 AM (No. 391927)
The link to the video presentation from California within this article is well worth the time.
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Reply 2 - Posted by: petrichor 4/26/2020 9:19:40 AM (No. 391997)
I think the grocery stores are fabulous "virus cultures", but still not much happening there.
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Reply 3 - Posted by: Bluefindad 4/26/2020 10:13:23 AM (No. 392071)
Great article! As mentioned, the politicians and experts are setting themselves up for a 'win' by claiming that their mitigation efforts were successful and that they saved us from the horrible plague! The really bad part is that they've opened the door to taking extreme freedom removal actions based on expert opinion. If the Dems get power, they will resort to their climate change models - backed by experts, and wreck havoc on us all. The experts, such as Fauci, do not see the hypocrisy of their claims. He discounted hydroxychloroquine because it had not been subjected to rigorous double-blind trials - statistical analysis of clinical results that determine the difference in outcomes between those treated vs untreated. However, in the case of the extreme social mitigation efforts there is no allowance for "What would happen if we didn't adopt extreme measures". By definition, the national trial by pandemic is unscientific. The politicians and experts are engaged in a yeoman effort to make it seem scientific by using the models as the untreated fraction and gaming the outcome. But the models were constructed with unknown factors - infection rates and mortality estimates, so they may satisfy curiosity but are not useful as the untreated side of the double-blind study. God help us to become cynical when believing the 'science' touted by experts! Kudos to Georgia for being brave enough to test the alternative!
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Reply 4 - Posted by: czechlist 4/26/2020 10:27:18 AM (No. 392084)
I saw a report this past week that nationwide 3000 grocery store employees have been infected. That's 60/state on average. There are probably 60 grocery stores within 25 miles of my home. None of the stores where I shop - grocery convenience, hardware- have had an infection.
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Reply 5 - Posted by: Skeptical1 4/26/2020 10:33:56 AM (No. 392089)
Kimball mentions Sweden, which did not lock down, vs. Norway, which did. Sweden has had more than ten times as many COVID deaths as Norway, and twice the population. (Sweden = 2194 deaths and a population of 10 million, Norway = 201 deaths and a population of 5 million), So based on Sweden vs. Norway, lockdowns reduce the death count by a factor of five, at least in the short term. The U.S. death count of 54,000 would have been 270,000 if we hadn't locked down, based on this reasoning. That's 216,000 lives saved. Actually, fewer, since the death count is an upper bound. Was it worth it? I would have to say it wasn't, considering that the majority of the deaths were of older citizens, like myself, whose life expectancy wasn't that great to begin with. But there are other things to consider, like a five times greater toll on health care workers.
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Reply 6 - Posted by: a man over thirty 4/26/2020 12:57:42 PM (No. 392265)
I learned "post hoc ergo propter hoc" could be used as an often fallacious assertion of logic at college. Never thought it would apply so directly to my life as I now sit at home for the 45th straight day under orders to self-isolate by persons of authority committed to such "logic." There is no control group by which we can compare/demonstrate the fallacy of their arguments so we'll just have to live with their "we told you so"s no matter the outcome.
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Reply 7 - Posted by: Blue-Z-Anna 4/26/2020 2:44:47 PM (No. 392349)
The reputed "genius" of great detective work (Conan Doyle style) is to force every tiny post into becoming a propter. It's called 'looking for clues'. That's why some veteran cops can be such azzholes.
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