US housing market in ‘deep recession’
as homebuilder confidence tanks: economist
New York Post,
by
Thomas Barrabi
Original Article
Posted By: Ribicon,
9/19/2022 2:13:58 PM
The US housing market is in the midst of a “deep recession” that could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes, a prominent economist warned on Monday. Home builder confidence declined for the ninth straight month in September as surging mortgage rates and steep prices priced many buyers out of the market, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 when excluding the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the index showed.
The prolonged downturn in confidence shows the housing market has been “in a tailspin for the whole of this year,”
Reply 1 - Posted by:
itsonlyme 9/19/2022 2:45:02 PM (No. 1282059)
Nancy "Puke" Pelosi may offer her base some stimulus checks.
5 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 9/19/2022 3:01:02 PM (No. 1282066)
Even a blind economist should have been able to see this coming. Savings have been destroyed so people have no downpayment. Inflation is spiking interest rates so now is a bad time to get a mortgage. Fortunately for people, most have already done additions in recent times or have built new homes. So, fewer will be impacted for a while. Yes, some will NEED to have a home built or an addition. They will suffer.
But the real damage will be to construction companies who will have to lay people off and see a decline in revenue. Thus, adding to a recession getting worse.
If you think about it, this is going to impact business construction as well. Who wants to add on to there physical plant at inflated prices with the possibility of a recession starting. When the recession deepens it will be tough for Brandon and his winged monkeys to claim all is well. KJP's head will explode.
4 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
nwcudagal 9/19/2022 3:42:17 PM (No. 1282086)
But, but the County has already doubled my property value. What now?
3 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
JimBob 9/19/2022 3:51:41 PM (No. 1282100)
It seems to me that what governs house prices is the monthly amount that buyers are willing and able to pay.
Consider that anyone selling a house will ask as much money as they think they can get. If suddenly every buyer has an extra $100,000 to spend on a house, each seller will immediately raise their price by $100,000. When the interest rates declined some years ago, people could afford a larger dollar amount for a house, as the interest per thousand borrowed was less. This resulted in home prices increasing significantly. Now that interest rates are going up, the payment per thousand of mortgage amount is going up, the required monthly payments are going up, and those potential buyers who cannot or will not pay the increased monthly payment are simply not buying. It seems that home sellers are still asking the same high prices, so sales activity will slow or cease until the prices drop and the monthly payment moves into the range that buyers are willing and able to pay.
I am sure that I am not the first, or the 10,000th person to figure this out.
Is there some real estate 'rule of thumb' (even better if there is a rhyme or jingle to it) that describes this effect?
2 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
DVC 9/19/2022 3:53:00 PM (No. 1282102)
Interest rates have been held at extreme, history, unsustainably low levels for years, artificially pumping up the economy. Now, that has caused inflation, along with massive creation of money, like $9 trillion from the Fed in "quantitative easing"....just creating money from thin air, $9 trillion created that way.
No the Fed is working on undoing that. But the reversal of the huge, and long time quantitative easing (creating money) is being done with an eyedropper, about $80 billion a year, IIRC. At that rate, the Fed will have fixed it in about 1100 years. NOT significant, it needs to be more like 30 times that every year.
Mortgage rates going much higher, I'd bet on 10% mortgages within two years. Maybe sooner.
2 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
DVC 9/19/2022 4:06:41 PM (No. 1282114)
And a higher mortgage rate just kills savings.
For a $300K loan, at the old rate of 3.5%, monthly payment without taxes is about $1350. Total interest paid
for the home after 30 years will be $185K, plus the loan principal.
For the same dollar loan, if the rate is up to 6%, the monthly payment is $1800. The total interest paid for the home
after 30 years will be just under $350K, plus the loan principal.
So, the interest increase takes $165,000 out of the family's savings that could have been going towards other things like retirement or college.
Run interest rates up to 9% and the monthly is $2414 a month, total interest paid will be $569,000.....$384K more to interest, not available for retirement or college or whatever. These interest rates just crush a family's ability to live. More than $1,000 extra PER MONTH in house payments.
Keeps huge numbers throwing money away on rent, and the ones who can afford it, can't afford much else. Crushes the life out of the economy.
3 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
downnout 9/19/2022 4:21:32 PM (No. 1282122)
Some of the housing here in Florida was way overpriced. Probably elsewhere, too.
1 person likes this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
red1066 9/19/2022 4:23:38 PM (No. 1282128)
On the bright side, lumber prices will continue to drop.
1 person likes this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
or gate 9/19/2022 4:38:40 PM (No. 1282138)
Was life better under T or more screwed under B
I hear people say T was not presidentual.
1 person likes this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
MDConservative 9/19/2022 5:09:40 PM (No. 1282148)
Bubbles always burst. Real estate is no exception. Ask Dubya. You can only pump up the market with cheap money for so long...
3 people like this.
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This has got to be the Russians at it again. And regardless, single-family homes are for the ultra wealthy, per Reset rules. The rest of us will be eased into soul-crushing Soviet bloc-style high density brutalist concrete hives where we can be more easily controlled. And we can live side by side with all of the New Americans being imported by Brandon.