Coronavirus Deaths: The Most
Predictive Factor
American Spectator,
by
David Catron
Original Article
Posted By: Garnet,
5/5/2020 5:57:54 AM
There is only one reliable metric that reveals how likely you are to die from COVID-19 in a given state, and it isn’t what you’re seeing in the legacy media. The number of new cases and deaths, for example, are staples of news stories about the pandemic. Neither of these factoids, however, tells us very much in the absence of sophisticated epidemiological data that just isn’t yet available. A far more predictive metric is “death rate per million.” Why? Testing is far more consistent for fatal cases. By this measurement, you are probably more likely to die from coronavirus if you live in a blue state rather than a red
Reply 1 - Posted by:
IowaDad 5/5/2020 6:26:42 AM (No. 401183)
Clearly, being surrounded by Democrats is a major predictor of death from Coronavirus. But what we are trying to do is reduce the new infection rate -- the number of people who get infected today. There is no way to determine that. Instead we have to rely on death, an event that occurs 3-4 weeks after an individual gets infected. Death is therefore a late trailing indicator.
It's really hard to manage an epidemic if the first indication that a policy is or is not working doesn't become apparent until four weeks after you institute it. Better indicators might be hospitalization, admission to ICU or new patients on ventilators, but the totally chaotic information flow in healthcare due to massive failures of EMR's to deliver data make these data hard to collect.
Incidentally, the CDC is totally AWOL: no science, dreadful screw-up of testing, lousy data collection, dreadfully inaccurate predictions, poor public relations.
14 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
walcb 5/5/2020 8:06:30 AM (No. 401260)
OK, someone is more likely to die of Wuhan in a Dim state than a Pube state but I didn't see the answer as to why--maybe I missed it. Is it falsifying COD by the Dims to get more funding or to somehow make Trump look bad? Is it because most of the states are in the north were people don't get as much sun and that leads to more Wuhan deaths? East coast is much worse than West coast so it doesn't look like date of initial outbreak is the answer.
2 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
Clinger 5/5/2020 8:18:19 AM (No. 401273)
I would suggest that the predominant variable is the existence of densely populated urban centers which happen to correlate to Blue states. Let's filter that out and compare rural counties with and without the more restrictive hide under the bed orders and see if we can do some real science to demonstrate that we need to get out in the sunshine and carry on with good sense and not live like dust bunnies.
9 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
udanja99 5/5/2020 8:51:05 AM (No. 401314)
South Carolina is a red state. Charleston city/county, population 500,000, has had seven deaths. What it says to me is that red states have far superior management. We are opening back up as I type.
5 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
rikkitikki 5/5/2020 9:09:33 AM (No. 401352)
As Iceland, S.Korea, and Norway have shown, the correct response protocol is a huge determining factor in the mortality rate of CV19.
As a comparison of their successes to Blue States' failures show, rigorous testing, tracing and limited quarantining of the sick work far better than face masks, hand sanitizers, and quarantining the healthy population.
1 person likes this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
Lawsy0 5/5/2020 9:48:03 AM (No. 401408)
The depopulation Plandemic is working. Give Bill Gates and Doktor Fauci das credit.
1 person likes this.
Let's talk about the abuse of statistics to turn them into damn lies...Let's compare Red Wyoming to Maryland...from population (about 580,000 versus 6,000,000) to population density (Six per square mile versus 600). It's like comparing the number of deaths in Italy to the number in the USA.
Maryland, BTW, has a "Republican" governor, although it's hard to tell.
3 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
DVC 5/5/2020 1:11:07 PM (No. 401673)
Kansas has a idiot for a Dem governor. NY state has 24 times the deaths per capita of Kansas, and most of our counties many far larger than the area of Long Island, have zero or one death, per COUNTY.
I really think that public transportation is the real risk factor here. Jamming people onto subways, buses, commuter trains, and elevators is bad business. Population density in general is the other big risk factor. And then the norms of personal hygiene are an issue. How many times did people normally wash their hands before this was really going on? Lots of factors.
IMO, public transportation and population density ore the #1 and #2 factors.
2 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
LadyHen 5/5/2020 1:22:06 PM (No. 401686)
Living stacked on top of each other like cord wood, living in buildings where there is communal usage of stairs, lobbies, elevators, and other spaces, and using public transportation as a major means of going to work/school is probably far more predictive. Living crammed in like sardines in not a red state thing.
O give me land, lots of land, and the starry skies above
Don't fence me in
2 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Dino Sayer 5/5/2020 3:12:47 PM (No. 401786)
New York City is counting death from jaywalking as a covid-19 death. The reason their rate is so high is they are falsifying the deaths to get more federal emergency dollars. A second reason is they are withholding the effective hydroxychloroquine treatment until you are already hospitalized. Than you dr. Cuomo. Count the nys death rate for the last three years, divide by three, subtract from deaths this year. That tells you the real covid 19 rate, which will be a fraction of nyc reported rate.
1 person likes this.
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