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Oxford and Imperial

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Posted By: Hazymac, 3/28/2020 7:55:29 AM

My dear old statistics teacher used to say that relying on any model however good but founded on past data was like driving by looking at the rearview mirror; fine as long as the future looked like the past. As governments struggle with their response to the Covid-19 pandemic the $64 trillion question is 'which past does the future look like?' Science Mag writes how models have become supremely important: "Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven't been peer reviewed. ... The Netherlands ... Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected 'working endlessly to contain the virus'

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Reply 1 - Posted by: lakerman1 3/28/2020 9:49:47 AM (No. 360719)
Every school of journalism should require statistics. I doubt that they do. The long quote from Dr. Birx, contained in this article is beautiful. Print it out and put it on your refrigerator. she is crystal clear, to the point, and I get it.
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Reply 2 - Posted by: DVC 3/28/2020 1:52:09 PM (No. 361015)
Too many folks made the serious mistake of taking Chinese numbers as DATA. Chinese numbers are propaganda, NEVER data. It is an easy trap to fall into. This has screwed up pretty much everyone's attempts to calculate what the heck is going on. Intentional lies mixed in with your data really make a mess of your science. It is now becoming almost certain that there are a VERY large number of no/low symptom Wuhan flu cases out there. It is looking like 75-90% of cases don't require any medical treatment at all. These 'missing patients' are need to correctly calculate the proper numerator in the death rate calculations. Gibberish data....gets worthless projections.
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Oxford and Imperial 2 replies
Posted by Hazymac 3/28/2020 7:55:29 AM Post Reply
My dear old statistics teacher used to say that relying on any model however good but founded on past data was like driving by looking at the rearview mirror; fine as long as the future looked like the past. As governments struggle with their response to the Covid-19 pandemic the $64 trillion question is 'which past does the future look like?' Science Mag writes how models have become supremely important: "Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven't been peer reviewed. ... The Netherlands ... Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected 'working endlessly to contain the virus'
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Posted by Hazymac 3/19/2020 8:49:46 PM Post Reply
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Posted by Hazymac 3/7/2020 8:04:50 AM Post Reply
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Posted by Hazymac 3/3/2020 7:53:00 AM Post Reply
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Posted by Hazymac 3/2/2020 7:50:31 PM Post Reply
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Posted by Hazymac 2/27/2020 9:32:24 PM Post Reply
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