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3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report

Original Article

Posted By: PageTurner, 5/27/2019 7:39:14 PM

Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times. Steven Rattner wrote that Ray Fair of Yale favors Trump to win based on a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates. The model predicted Barack Obama's 2008 popular vote margin within a fraction of a percentage point and got within two-tenths of a point for his 2012 vote share, Rattner, who served as a counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, added.

Comments:

These guys don't want to be caught wrong, it's bad for business if you're a forecaster. Prepare for pain, socialists.

Post Reply

Reply 1 - Posted by: Strike3 5/27/2019 7:43:33 PM (No. 85406)
Not mentioned is the fact that all 24 democrat candidates suck and don't know a growth rate from a capsizing island in the Pacific.
5 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: SiliconValleyDude 5/27/2019 7:51:50 PM (No. 85408)
Actually President Trump has always done quite well with models. ;-)
9 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: DoneinCalif 5/27/2019 8:16:05 PM (No. 85417)
I pray Trump doesn't fall into the inevitability trap. He has to campaign as if he's 10 points behind. He can't try and phone it it.
6 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Nevadadad46 5/27/2019 9:04:42 PM (No. 85425)
I just took one look at the 24+ idiots the Rats want to run against President Trump and predicted he would win by a landslide against any of them- including "Hands" Biden. And I did not need a complex computer algorithm to figure it out, either.
5 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: qr4j 5/27/2019 10:45:44 PM (No. 85450)
Broken glass to vote for Trump! Crawl over broken bloody glass! We mustn’t be complacent.
8 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: john56 5/27/2019 11:18:21 PM (No. 85458)
Fine. Thanks for the positive news. But I have a feeling that Pres Trump and his team are going to run like they are 10 points behind right up to election day. Worked well in 2016. Plus, let's remember that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were won by a total of 70,000 votes. That's not a real "safe" margin -- and remember, Republicans didn't do well in those states in 2018. Take the good news and still keep running hard.
5 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: ginadee 5/27/2019 11:25:01 PM (No. 85461)
I agree.....do not let your guard down. Not anyone, not even President Trump.
4 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: DVC 5/28/2019 12:34:48 AM (No. 85473)
Me, too. The biggest factor is the economy. That biases a LOT of people to want to "keep on keepin' on" and vote the incumbent four more years. We are really fortunate to have President Trump. I really think He has given us one last chance.
3 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: Trigger2 5/28/2019 1:52:13 AM (No. 85482)
I expect massive fraud with all those illegals illegally voting.
6 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: Mr. Know-It-All 5/28/2019 8:58:55 AM (No. 85584)
My thoughts exactly #9. The illegals area pouring over the border, and the dems are probably chasing them down with voter registrations and instructions on how to vote "D" across the board.
1 person likes this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: kono 5/28/2019 9:42:49 AM (No. 85604)
And how correct were these polls' predictions in 2016? "Poll" is a four-letter word. Most polls are lies dressed-up to have the air of credibility. (And for political polling, that "most" is about 99.9999999%.)
0 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: DVC 5/28/2019 11:25:14 AM (No. 85671)
This is not based on polls, #11, but on data and modeling how events have shaped past elections, and their prediction for The Zero were extremely accurate. At least reading the intro (even better, reading the article) will give you a chance to make a more relevant comment than just reading the headline.
0 people like this.

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