That Polling Miss in Michigan Reveals
a Huge Problem
Posted By: Dreadnought, 8/7/2026 2:28:19 AM
Yesterday I took a stab at why the pollsters were so far off on the Michigan Senate race. I think it was a pretty good first stab at explaining the issue, and no doubt there will be a lot of focus on the issue by people more competent than I to explain how the pollsters got things so wrong. So I asked my friend-through-X, Scott Rasmussen, what he thought, and he was kind enough to give some insight into the issue. First, let's look at the magnitude of the problem: The polls weren't just off by a little; they missed the result by double digits. And it was everybody,
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Dreadnought"
Yesterday I took a stab at why the pollsters were so far off on the Michigan Senate race. I think it was a pretty good first stab at explaining the issue, and no doubt there will be a lot of focus on the issue by people more competent than I to explain how the pollsters got things so wrong.
So I asked my friend-through-X, Scott Rasmussen, what he thought, and he was kind enough to give some insight into the issue.
First, let's look at the magnitude of the problem: The polls weren't just off by a little; they missed the result by double digits. And it was everybody,
Voters in Tennessee dealt President Trump a blow and rejected Republican Rep. Andy Ogles at the polls Thursday.
The second-term lawmaker faced a formidable primary challenge from Charlie Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner endorsed by outgoing Gov. Bill Lee (R). Hatcher’s victory is the latest blemish on Trump’s largely successful endorsement record this cycle.
Thursday’s primaries also marked the first elections with the Volunteer State’s new House map after lawmakers approved GOP-friendly redistricting this spring.
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn has won the Republican primary for governor, beating U.S. Rep. John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts, R-Kingston.
Blackburn now faces Memphis Democrat Jerri Green in the general election. Tennessee hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 2006. If elected, Blackburn would continue a streak of firsts, going from the state’s first female U.S. senator to its first female governor. At 74 years old, she would also make history as the state’s oldest governor.
Blackburn was an early frontrunner, leading in the polls even before she announced her candidacy. Her campaign caught some flak late in the race as she refused
If Democrats were counting on Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) being a team player this cycle, they severely miscalculated. Sure, after she lost the Democrat Senate primary to state Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) earlier this year, she endorsed him right away, but it’s basically been the cold shoulder ever since.
While Democrats nationwide are convinced Talarico represents their best chance to flip Texas, Crockett just threw cold water on their fantasy when she told a national reporter she has no idea if Talarico can win, and let slip the sign that he probably won’t.
Wednesday on CNN’s “OutFront,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) claimed Republicans would vote for Michigan Democratic Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
Jayapal said, “I’m struck by the fact that they have nothing positive to offer voters. All they can do is try to attach labels to Abdul El-Sayed after seeing a primary. That was a remarkable turnout from voters. I mean, 1.4 million votes, I believe, were cast in the Michigan primary; people are electrified and being on the ground with Abdul. I can tell you he is an electrifying candidate. He has really mobilized a whole group of voters who had given up
Abdul El-Sayed's victory over moderate Rep. Haley Stevens is taking up all the oxygen in the room today but you don't have to look very far for evidence that last night was not the resounding win the far left had been hoping for. Start with El-Sayed himself. Going into election day his win was considered a given and some were seeing a potential double-digit blowout, but that didn't happen.
Coming into Election Day, Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary was widely expected. A blowout seemed possible. Instead, his victory margin will likely be less than two percentage points...
El-Sayed did not deliver a resounding
FDA approves 1st mRNA flu shot, from Moderna
25 replies
The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved the U.S.’ first flu shot that uses mRNA technology: mFlusiva, from drugmaker Moderna.
The FDA granted approval for two age groups, adults 50 to 65 and adults 65 and up, on the condition that Moderna run an additional clinical trial in the older group, the company said in a release. In a late-stage trial, mFlusiva was found to be about 27% more effective than a standard flu shot.
Many scientists and public health experts have touted the idea of an mRNA-based flu vaccine, which uses the same messenger RNA platform as the Covid vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer.
James Talarico accused Ken Paxton of voter
fraud. His own voter registration is raising questions. 6 replies
fraud. His own voter registration is raising questions. 6 replies
Texas state Rep. James Talarico voted in five elections using his parents’ address after purchasing a home for himself nearby, a practice that may have violated state voting laws, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune found.
This comes weeks after Talarico accused Attorney General Ken Paxton, his opponent in the race for U.S. Senate, of voter fraud for similar actions. The news organizations reported in July that Paxton voted using an address where his estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, said he hasn’t lived for two years.
Paxton has made eradicating voter fraud a cornerstone of his time in office by advocating strict enforcement of the law
NBC News projected early Wednesday that Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in the state's Democrat senatorial primary. Our partner DDHQ has also just called the race. Establishment Democrats are freaking out right now. Bernie Sanders’ organization Our Revolution also declared victory in the race. "Last night, Michigan delivered one of the clearest messages of this election cycle: people power can beat big money,” Joseph Geevarghese, Executive Director of Our Revolution, said in a statement. “Abdul El-Sayed was outspent by nearly ten to one, facing the largest single-race AIPAC investment in history and tens of millions of dollars from billionaire-backed super PACs determined to buy this election.
Apparently, in Michigan Democrat Party politics, you can never be antisemitic enough. If you support Israel's mere right to exist, you will be excommunicated from polite company.
That's not much of an exaggeration. Pux Cider bar in Grand Rapids, Michigan, is a longtime Democrat Party hangout, both because its proprietors are lefties and because it happens to be located next door to the Kent County Democrat Party headquarters.
It's the sort of place where they hold LGBTQ+ World Cup watch parties or events for Democratic women, such as the one that recently featured Haley Stevens and other Democrat Party women.
The U.S. military said the Strait of Hormuz was open for all commercial vessels to transit, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that an Iran deal is close.
U.S. Central Command said the “southern route of the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open” in a post on X, highlighting that it had assisted more than 1,000 vessels in transiting the waterway despite “unwarranted” Iranian aggression.
The southern route passes through Omani territorial waters, rather than the part closer to Iran. The announcement comes as oil prices also fell sharply Tuesday, following remarks by U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent that there
DSA Co-Chair Admits: Not One Dem Has Asked
Her to Tone Down Calls to Abolish Senate, Presidency 7 replies
Her to Tone Down Calls to Abolish Senate, Presidency 7 replies
For all the talk out there of supposedly moderate Democrats terrified of the socialist takeover within their party, concerned that extremists will hurt their general election chances, you'd think some in the party would be urging them to tone things down a bit.
That doesn't appear to be the case.
In a recent NewsNation interview, DSA Co-Chair Megan Romer was asked whether Democratic operatives had been calling on her to rein in the group’s more radical proposals.
Proposals she has previously outlined, which include abolishing numerous core institutions
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Francesca Hong, the radical leftist running for governor of Wisconsin, has been in the news for the last two days over negative comments she once made about Thanksgiving being a symbol of colonialism and ‘the original superspreader.’
Well, the polling on that must have come in because now Hong is out there telling people that Thanksgiving is her favorite holiday and she totally means it, everyone.
These people have no shame. They will literally look you in the face and say whatever they think will open the doors of power for them.
They think no one remembers a thing.
FDA approves 1st mRNA flu shot, from Moderna
25 replies
The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved the U.S.’ first flu shot that uses mRNA technology: mFlusiva, from drugmaker Moderna.
The FDA granted approval for two age groups, adults 50 to 65 and adults 65 and up, on the condition that Moderna run an additional clinical trial in the older group, the company said in a release. In a late-stage trial, mFlusiva was found to be about 27% more effective than a standard flu shot.
Many scientists and public health experts have touted the idea of an mRNA-based flu vaccine, which uses the same messenger RNA platform as the Covid vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer.
Wednesday on CNN’s “OutFront,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) claimed Republicans would vote for Michigan Democratic Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
Jayapal said, “I’m struck by the fact that they have nothing positive to offer voters. All they can do is try to attach labels to Abdul El-Sayed after seeing a primary. That was a remarkable turnout from voters. I mean, 1.4 million votes, I believe, were cast in the Michigan primary; people are electrified and being on the ground with Abdul. I can tell you he is an electrifying candidate. He has really mobilized a whole group of voters who had given up
When Will The Climate Liars Stop Lying?
15 replies
For nearly 40 years, the global warming cabal has spread fear and wasted resources on an emergency that doesn’t exist. While their influence has begun to wane, as their credibility has crashed and their lies have been exposed, the fabrications, exaggerations, and junk science continue. How much longer must we endure their campaign of rancid propaganda?
The dawning moment of the global warming movement was NASA scientist James Hansen’s June 1988 testimony before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
“In my opinion,”
Some blockbuster news is dropping Wednesday night as pertains to the ongoing congressional investigations into Anthony Fauci: a copy of the diminutive doctor's COVID-era phone has landed in the hands of the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which is chaired by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).According to an exclusive report in the Wall Street Journal, the phone was handed over by the Department of Health and Human Services, and is likely to contain additional records about Fauci's conduct during the pandemic. This comes a week after Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) publicly released an archive of documents related to Fauci's handling of COVID, including his diaries.
Senate Panel Votes to Hold Fauci in Contempt
13 replies
A Senate committee on Aug. 6 voted to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), in contempt of Congress.
The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs voted 8–5 along party lines. All Republicans voted to hold Fauci in contempt, contempt.
(snip)
“When voluntary cooperation ends, Congress must be able to compel compliance with its lawful demands. That is Congress’s compulsory instrument,“ Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), chairman of the panel, said before the vote. ”A subpoena is not an invitation. A subpoena with no consequence is not a subpoena; it’s a suggestion.”
Hundreds of Haitian immigrants who recently lost Temporary Protected Status (TPS) have been ordered to report to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) offices in the Springfield, Ohio, region. Many of them have left wearing ankle monitors, signaling the beginning of a deportation crackdown for the 350,000 Haitians who are no longer authorized to be in the United States. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began sending "call-in" letters to Haitian nationals in late July, shortly after the Haitian TPS program was revoked following a US Supreme Court decision, according to the Haitian Times. TPS for Haitians officially ended on July 27.
Barring some wholly unforeseen development, such as Republicans actually mounting an effective challenge somewhere, the 120th Congress will convene on January 3, 2027 with a record seven Muslim members, six representatives and, for the first time in American history, one senator. And for Muslim Brotherhood-linked organizations in the U.S., the future looks bright.
Before 2007, there were no Muslim in the House of Representatives or Senate at all. The seven Muslim legislators who will be sworn in (on the Qur’an, no doubt) in January will include the four representatives in the 119th Congress: Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.); Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.); Andre Carson (D-Ind.), and Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.). Joining them will be
Only 25 years after the September 11 attacks on the United States, a major political party has fallen in with people who view that attack as deserved and the attackers as righteous. If it were parody, no one would accept it because good parody is based in truth and the truth is this fall of the Democratic Party is not believable. Sure, they’ve expressed sympathies for enemies of the United States before, but always for political advantage only; now they appear to mean it or are so afraid of it they won’t say anything to the contrary.
The Trump administration will require that some prospective immigrants post a bond of up to $250,000 in order to obtain a U.S. visa as part of a new pilot program aimed at ensuring those who seek a new home in America have the financial means to support themselves without taxpayer handouts, the Washington Free Beacon can reveal.
The pilot bond program, which will go into effect Tuesday morning in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security, will initially apply to certain immigrants from the Dominican Republic and could expand to other nations in the future. A State Department official confirmed to the Free Beacon that American consular offices in
Abdul El-Sayed is the latest Islamo-socialist terrorist-sympathizer star of the Democrat Party, after squeaking to a win in the Michigan Senate primary Tuesday.
Although he underperformed his poll numbers and the predictions of his media boosters, the lockdown-loving health bureaucrat has accelerated the radical left’s conquest of the Democrat Party from within.
If El-Sayed can pull off a victory in November in the Midwest, in the swingiest of swing states, what will stop a Marxist heading for the White House?
Federal and Pennsylvania prosecutors have charged 19 defendants in connection with a $4 million scheme to defraud Medicare and Medicaid, the latest sign of the taxpayer-funded waste that has long plagued government health programs, Fox News reported.
The defendants named in the case include owners of home health care companies, their employees and Medicaid recipients who allegedly conspired to bill the government for services that were never rendered, according to prosecutors.Investigators say the defendants billed Medicaid for home health services while recipients were behind bars, in the hospital, working other jobs or out of the country entirely. In one instance, prosecutors said,