The Iran War: Collapse, Chaos, and What
Comes Next
Daily Sognal,
by
Victor Davis Hanson
Original Article
Posted By: Mercedes44,
4/30/2026 4:24:27 AM
We’re in the eighth week of the Iran waropens in a new tab, and things are starting to heat up even though there’s not kinetic action. What do I mean by heating up? The Iranian government has ceased to exist. We don’t know, and the Iranians don’t know who holds power.
There is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. There is the theocracy, there is the elected people in Parliament, and there is a regular military. And those four groups operate in schizophrenic fashion. By the same token, sometimes they give off signals that they would like to negotiate because that is predicated on popular resistance.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
5 handicap 4/30/2026 5:41:40 AM (No. 2098882)
General Keane, a man with a great military ming, IMHO, says America should at this point get back to destroying people and things in Iran! Iranians do not negotiate they lie, cheat and delay, delay delay, until the Democraps get power and Iran wins!
64 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
5 handicap 4/30/2026 5:42:11 AM (No. 2098883)
that would be Military MIND!
19 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
Strike3 4/30/2026 6:42:01 AM (No. 2098895)
Iran richly deserved this after October 7th and the many years of bluster and murder before that. I hope the Persian people can do what is necessary.
39 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 4/30/2026 7:59:14 AM (No. 2098937)
"And the people will take care of the rest—the Iranian people."
That is a possibility but not certain.
One outcome is that Iran rebuilds as it was, a terrorist regime, over a period of time, say 30 years. We might have to rinse and repeat. This was KNOWN! We hoped for the outcome of the Iranian people kicking out the Theocracy but that hasn't happened yet. It still might.
However, the immediate goal was to eliminate their nuclear program and destroy their ability to project terrorism. That has been mostly accomplished. We should maintain the oil embargo on Iran until their oil fields must shut down. That will continue to economically cripple the country (and allow the US to sell more oil) and prevent them from rebuilding their military. Then we can wait and see what emerges.
20 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
bpl40 4/30/2026 8:01:05 AM (No. 2098938)
Do both. Keep a door ( the 'a' is deliberate) open to discussions (don't call them negotiations) and resume kinetic action while continuously tightening the physical and financial blockade. The anger and desperation of Democrats in yesterday's hearing, Adam Smith, Ro Khanna, will tell you how close to victory we are.
28 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
mifla 4/30/2026 8:05:30 AM (No. 2098941)
Choking their economy via the blockade should do the trick.
Trashing the countries' infrastructure only heaps misery on the average Iranian, most of which have little love for their government.
When everyone gets hungry enough or cold enough, things will change.
20 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
frankdn 4/30/2026 8:11:26 AM (No. 2098946)
I am always reluctant to disagree with Dr. Hanson, but I cannot avoid it today. What does he mean, "go home?" If the leftover shia fanatics see us depart, they will immediately declare victory while the Democrats and the MSM shout "TACO!" here at home.
Trump's strategy is working, let it continue. The only acceptable settlement is regime change, and the Iranian people must do that themselves (otherwise any follow-on government will be tainted by foreign influence). I am confident the Israelis are prepared to support that revolution, it will not require American boots on the ground (except perhaps some SpecOps).
23 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
Dodge Boy 4/30/2026 8:17:07 AM (No. 2098950)
There is the problem that the chicoms and the russkies might invent ways to prop up iran economically, financially, and politically. Afterall, they both have a 47-year investment, or what is left of it, to protect.
18 people like this.
Expecting the unarmed people to overcome that military machine is a bit like thinking the Jews in concentration camps could overtake their guards. We will have to take out the military hubs and tunnels, not the bridges.
24 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
DeweyCA 4/30/2026 9:03:25 AM (No. 2098971)
During this blockade time, I hope Mossad has gotten new intel on the locations of Vahidi and other Revolutionary Guard leaders, so they can eliminate them all in a sudden reprisal of the start of this war. It will be challenging for the people to rise up against the Islamic leaders since 30,000 of the best resisters were slaughtered a couple months ago.
21 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
MickTurn 4/30/2026 11:00:14 AM (No. 2099018)
As we said in Viet Nam, Kill them ALL (the Enemy) and let GOD sort them out.
That puts an end to all the games, the terror, the Hate etc.
THEN the Citizens can be aided to take back their country and totally Eliminate their former oppressors, ALL OF THEM!
13 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
Rumblehog 4/30/2026 11:02:57 AM (No. 2099022)
POTUS can get the Iran issue resolved very quickly should the U.S. urge Kurds and Iraqi armed forces press attacks on Iran from the west. Seeing foreign troops massing on their border would prompt the military to swarm that direction like ants to a sugar cube, drawing them out of urban areas, and away from population centers, thereby allowing "citizen-militia" to gain foothold. Such "Hammer and Anvil Strategies" have been used for centuries, all the way back to Alexander the Great.
12 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
NotaBene 4/30/2026 12:42:58 PM (No. 2099058)
Iran has been under sanctions for decades so may be able to endure more pain than Netanyahu thinks. The economies of all Asia are dependent on Persian Gulf oil. Time is not on our side. Beware in November.
9 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
davew 4/30/2026 12:54:07 PM (No. 2099064)
The conundrum we face stems from our cognitive bias that people will negotiate in their own self-interest. This has not been true since at least WWII. The Japanese leadership was delusionally infected by National Shintoism, much as the German leadership was with National Socialism. Their "will" overcame any rational assessment of their prospects for victory. It took the firebombing of Dresden, the raping and pillaging of the Russian army, and the suicide pact with Hitler by the inner circle of leaders to get Germany to surrender. A similar level of carnage, with the fire bombing of Tokyo and two atomic bombs, was necessary to break the will of the Japanese.
The Islamic Revolutionary leadership is a cult that believes it is better to die a martyr and take every innocent person with you, than concede defeat to an infidel like the US or Israel. In the current era, I'm doubtful the US leadership would be willing to do what is necessary to break the will of the IRGC. As I've maintained from the beginning of the Iran War, the real fighting has not yet begun.
7 people like this.
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