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Presidential Opinion Polls
– Déjà vu All Over Again?

Original Article

Posted By: Magnante, 10/9/2020 5:51:22 AM

Presidential pollsters have short memories. It was a mere four years ago that most pollsters faceplanted after predicting a Hillary Clinton landslide victory. Rather than humility and introspection after such wildly inaccurate predictions, they have doubled down and may be falling into the same trap of wishful thinking as they did in 2016. Opinion polls are only as good as their samples. Assessing President Trump’s popularity in Boulder versus Sturgis would yield vastly different results based on the population being surveyed.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Knotwyrkin 10/9/2020 5:59:37 AM (No. 566708)
You must remember that the reason for these polls is to cause Trump supports to feel the cause has failed and not bother voting.
57 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: GreatGreyhounds 10/9/2020 6:08:07 AM (No. 566714)
I was at a bike rally last weekend. Lots of normal people, open carrying, wearing MAGA hats, President Trump t-shirts and Flags. For some reason, not a single person supporting Ole Joe and Ho seemed to be in the crowd...
48 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: John C 10/9/2020 6:12:52 AM (No. 566719)
Rally's (called stand-outs) every day this week in MA, by GOP.
27 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: judy 10/9/2020 6:15:30 AM (No. 566722)
National polls are worthless for presidential races...state polls are the only ones that's still electoral college, not popular vote.
33 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: ToryWhite 10/9/2020 7:23:25 AM (No. 566754)
In my experience of them, the thing about Liberals and Radicals is that they never change. (Ironic, that the conservatives do change and adapt, especially now with President Trump's amazing political demographic in-roads--starting in 2016-- soon to transform the 2020 election.) Everything the Dems do right now they always do-the fake polls, the acrimony, the relentless virtue-signaling and equally relentless violence both verbal and physical. Their failure in 2016 has done nothing to change them. The Dem liberals are the party of the 1960's, of my generation. The Dem radicals harken further back: to the 1950's, and to the predictable collapse of the Communism flirtation that was popular then with Labor. It is all old news, regurgitated with a contemporary rudeness and incivility. They will not win this election, the polls are wrong (and that's repeat, too).
26 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: WhamDBambam 10/9/2020 7:47:54 AM (No. 566781)
It's what they tell themselves so they can sleep at night. Afraid it's going to be another "Where's-my-pony" Christmas for them.
18 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: bpl40 10/9/2020 8:01:51 AM (No. 566799)
Here is what I don't understand. (1) Polls showing Biden ahead by double digits are exactly the same polls conducted by same people as in 2016. The reasons those polls were wrong are now on steroids - the toxicity, the hate, the intimidation, fear of job loss (2) .The economy is in a classic reverse check sign. Voters are looking for the V to be completed. They know who will do it. In an election year two incumbents turned turned out (Carter ,Bush Sr. ) has third party opponents.(3) No party has put up such an far left extremist ticket in US political history.(4) The enthusiasm for the two candidates is disproportionately in favor of Trump. We can see that through the gas lighting. (5) Biden is a drooling, incontinent, incoherent idiot. His running mat , one heart beat away an arrogant, abrasive, condescending B**** (this is where Lucianne should permit me to use the full word!) not fit to be dog catcher.. What am I missing??
32 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: SkeezerMcGee 10/9/2020 8:23:36 AM (No. 566822)
These phony polls are OK. Too many folks decide not to vote if confident their candidates will win without their vote.
14 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: fhancock 10/9/2020 8:29:16 AM (No. 566828)
#7 Brilliant...add ons....Biden has promised to kick us down until June 2021, raise our taxes, broke bread with ANTIFA, and BLM, and pack the SCOTUS
11 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: Johnnie Barleykorn 10/9/2020 8:56:56 AM (No. 566874)
I live in PA. I still have a screen shot of the local newspaper which had Clinton up by 12 points in August, a state she later lost. The polls are done by biased leftists. Even if they weren't biased, they would still screw them up like they do everything else they touch.
18 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: ROLFNader 10/9/2020 9:03:27 AM (No. 566883)
Lest we forget, the MSM consists of some of the laziest 'professionals' of any group. The horse race mentality is overwhelming. There is little ,if any, difference between their treatment of elections and 'effort' they put into covering a hurricane, flood or forest fire. Become a pretty millionaire, simply by reporting on the reports of other reporter's reports.
15 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: The Remnants 10/9/2020 9:04:27 AM (No. 566886)
Today's cartoon is so great! It should be sold in all college bookstores, but it won't happen because the universities can't allow freedom of expression. We are lucky we can still express ourselves here on Lucianne, and that is the biggest reason of all that the President has to win.
12 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: Dodge Boy 10/9/2020 9:23:20 AM (No. 566909)
What we see in these so-called polls is the same tactic the left-leaning pollsters and msm outlets try at every general election. They carefully select a sample population that yields the poll data they were hired to produce. The objective is to create that sense of inevitability among us and to demoralize us. But, the pollsters and msm are only fooling themselves. But, for them, it keeps their clients and advertisers happy.
11 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: Lawsy0 10/9/2020 9:38:01 AM (No. 566930)
The operative phrase is ''even if the polls say the opposite.'' As noted in the final paragraph, Democrats are willing to lie, cheat and steal to get what they want. Trump and his avid followers are only too willing for ''what you see is what you get.'' Even retired since 2018, I have done better fiscally than I expected. Believe your eyes! God Bless President Trump! KAG
10 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: Kate318 10/9/2020 10:42:53 AM (No. 567022)
I was happy to see this post this morning. I had Fox News on earlier, and the blond woman who comes on after Fox & Friends—sort of a Shepherd Smith in a dress—was “reporting” a Real Clear Politics poll as if it was a roadmap to what is going to happen on Election Day. No disclaimers, no internals, no verifiables. She even had the owner of the company on to lend real credibility as to how horrible things looked for Trump. The polls had Trump down just about everywhere, by several points, and she had the the whole slick graphic up that she was manipulating like Vanna White. The entire segment was presented as an indisputable fact. I couldn’t get to the television fast enough to change the channel. Other posters are correct. These polls are to dispirit Trump voters, and bolster democrats. Nothing more. And, even though I have seen this tactic used again and again by the left—all the way back to Reagan/Carter—and I absolutely know what it is, I still can have a momentary second thought. Imagine what this does to the squishy middle. If the election is a fair election, Trump wins hands down. If vote fraud rules the day, it’s a toss up. It’s really that simple.
12 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: DVC 10/9/2020 12:09:27 PM (No. 567109)
Three issues wreck their polls. 1) people actively avoid unknown calls due to the tidal wave of worthless nuisance calls by sellers. 2) people actively lie to pollsters, especially folks who support the President because Trump supporters get fired, verbally abused, and fear the lunatic leftists. 3) pollsters bias their polls in many/most cases to support the Dems/Left. The net result is that most polls are just hogwash.
9 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: Right Time 10/9/2020 12:35:21 PM (No. 567139)
Its called OVERSAMPLING. If you conduct a poll and the proportion of the participants is weighted to one political party over the other, greatly out of proportion to the percent of voters in that party out of the total voters, you can make the poll say anything. Why not just poll at the DNC Convention? Or, if you poll only CNN employees, it is doubtful that Trump would even have double digit support.
7 people like this.

Reply 18 - Posted by: a man over thirty 10/9/2020 12:56:44 PM (No. 567157)
And they have the nerve to go on and on about supposed Republican efforts at vote suppression (being for voter ID and being against "ballot harvesting.") Meanwhile just about every polling outfit is chock a block with leftists push polling, weighted polling, fake polling in order to SUPPRESS conservative voting levels (due to depressed hopelessness). At the same time, Pelosi, Carville and their media stooges, Scaramucci , et al have put on a concerted effort to get the 25th amendment rolling against Trump. Sedition. Treason. And they've got DAs and judges in their pockets to back them up. How does a Republican EVER get elected to national office?
4 people like this.

Reply 19 - Posted by: cobieone 10/9/2020 3:50:56 PM (No. 567299)
Heard a polling expert yesterday explain the Rasmussen internals. He said the poll is sampling Republican support for Trump at 76%. The only time in history that the Republican support for their candidate went that low was GHW Bush, and that was because of Ross Perot. Usually, the Republican support is around 90%, and I am certain Trump has at least that number, maybe higher. These polls are wrong as everyone above me on this thread has pointed out.
3 people like this.

Reply 20 - Posted by: XCenturion 10/9/2020 4:11:37 PM (No. 567319)
The polls are meaningless but we must remember that the Marxists will do everything in their power to steal this election. Don't trust the USPS with your Absentee Ballots. Turn them in at a polling station or county elections office. Report anyone you may believe is involved in ballot harvesting or voter fraud. Most importantly GET OUT and VOTE! TRUMP 2020!
2 people like this.

Reply 21 - Posted by: RuckusTom 10/9/2020 4:45:39 PM (No. 567352)
Hillary, er, Biden in a landslide !
1 person likes this.

Reply 22 - Posted by: fairplay 10/9/2020 4:47:37 PM (No. 567357)
The polls aren't as tight as they should be this close to the election!
1 person likes this.

Reply 23 - Posted by: NotaBene 10/9/2020 4:54:19 PM (No. 567364)
My family is much, much better off than 4 years ago. In fact, many Americans are wealthy for the first time in their lives.
4 people like this.

Reply 24 - Posted by: LaVallette 10/10/2020 4:54:02 AM (No. 567861)
Pollsters with an agenda are aware of the capacity of Poll results to sway public opinion, even more so when feeding the already biased media "chooks" . This form of "push polling" relies on the perceived propensity of humans to like being on the "WINNING SIDE" . So by producing Polls after polls predicting an overwhelming likelihood of one side rather than the other of winning, the pollsters and their paymasters hope to persuade the "undecideds and the wavering" into voting for be on the winning side i,e, the pollsters preferred side and and thus bring abut the fulfillment of their own "prophesy". However the plan comes a cropper when there is an insufficient number of "undecideds and wavering" to make a difference or worse still when poll respondents decide to play their own "mind games" against the pollsters by responding with what they think the pollsters want to hear, rather then with their actual intentions. The latter seem to now be a game played on Pollsters all over the western world.
1 person likes this.

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