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Who Is Helmut Norpoth and Why
Does He Say Trump Will Win Big?

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Posted By: MissMolly, 8/25/2020 4:18:23 AM

Most political prognosticators delay their final predictions for a presidential race until the morning of Election Day. In 2016, for example, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times released their final projections during the wee hours of November 8. One forecaster, however, routinely publishes his predictions six months in advance. Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in New York issued his last word on the Trump–Clinton contest 246 days before the voters went to the polls. In March 2016, Norpoth confidently predicted that Donald Trump would be elected president. He not only contradicted Silver, Cohn

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Reply 1 - Posted by: maitaisoo 8/25/2020 4:31:02 AM (No. 519993)
Nice prediction but we still need to crawl over broken glass to go vote and take like minded family and friends with us. Our numbers at the polls is needed to overcome the cheaters with their mail-in ballots in the battle ground states.
20 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Attila DiMedici 8/25/2020 5:47:41 AM (No. 520005)
I would like to know which two elections his model gets wrong. Knowing that would help me decide if this might be a third one.
5 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Pearson365 8/25/2020 6:39:38 AM (No. 520027)
“ History is on Norpoth’s side. His “Primary model” has been right 25 of 27 times, and it predicts that, in 2020, President Trump will defeat Joe Biden 362-176 in the Electoral College.” The above Electoral College prediction should be enough for the Repubs to take back control of the House and keep control of the Senate. House control will mean we won’t have to watch Speaker Pelosi tear apart the President’s State of the Union speech ever again. Or have her stage another blatantly false impeachment process. Go, Trump. Best Biden.
13 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: StormCnter 8/25/2020 7:21:33 AM (No. 520060)
Norpoth is five for five in the last twenty years. In 2000, he predicted an Al Gore win. I haven't been able to locate the second wrong forecast.
5 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: DVC 8/25/2020 12:28:35 PM (No. 520441)
25 our or 27 is 93% accuracy. That's a very good track record. I have felt that Trump would win in a landslide for two years, but had no proof or solid way to nail it down. Mr. Norpoth has a good method, which works. Write 362-176 on the wall and see how it compares on "the morning after". The Demonrats will go CRAZY, and they really may try their longed-for Civil War 2.0. I really hope not. But if they do, patriots should be ready to deal with violence and protect their families, their country and the Constitution from "all enemies, domestic and foreign" like it says in the oath. Let's pray we don't go there.
1 person likes this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: DVC 8/25/2020 12:30:19 PM (No. 520443)
That should read..."25 out of 27 is 93%", typing faster than I can type this morning. 🙄
1 person likes this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: whitesidecounty 8/25/2020 4:21:21 PM (No. 520685)
FYI: The two elections he "missed" (1912-2016) were the 1960 (Kennedy-Nixon) and 2000 (Bush vs Gore) races. Both extremely close that could have gone either way. Many say that Nixon won in '60 but Mayor Daley brought enough "votes" home late and 2000 was decided by 537 votes in Florida. Both VERY close elections. Norpoth is calling for a Trump landslide, but I agree with an earlier poster, while encouraging, we must crawl over broken glass to vote and get out like minded voters to the polls. No time for ANY complacency!!
4 people like this.

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