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Neil ‘Lockdown’ Ferguson Gets Caught
With His Pants, And His Credibility, Down

Original Article

Posted By: RockyTCB, 5/7/2020 6:05:19 AM

It sounds like great tabloid fare: A leading disease expert in the United Kingdom is discovered to have violated the country’s stay-at-home order during the COVID-19 pandemic so he could canoodle with a married woman. And, yes, the British tabloids ate it up. But the scientist in this case was the highly respected Neil Ferguson, the person who more than anyone on the planet is responsible for the lockdown that has cost the U.S. economy trillions of dollars. It was Ferguson’s modeling that predicted massive deaths from the coronavirus unless drastic actions were taken. In the U.S. alone, he predicted

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Reply 1 - Posted by: jeffkinnh 5/7/2020 7:11:37 AM (No. 403495)
Ferguson seems particularly flawed because people are paying more attention to his prognostications. The reality is, all professions that use statistical analysis to make predictions don't have a good track record. Why? Because it's all guesswork and estimation. First you build a model and to how a situation might play out. Then you pump data into the model and see what pops out. You test it against things that have actually happened with the data that was available from that occurrence and verify the predictability was reasonably correct. Then you crank expected data into a proposed future instance and out pops your prediction. What could go wrong? Models are simplifications of complex events. Models assume that future events will work just like past events. Data that is used is assumed to be complete and accurate. Future data needed is assumed to be the of the same nature as past data. Data available from an emerging situation is ALWAYS incomplete and inaccurate. The amazing thing is, for some things, this process works reasonably well. For a lot of things, it fails miserably. The bad thing is, "experts" think that if they follow the approved process that the outcome is scientific and correct. They declare their results with certitude. They rarely admit that the process for what they are looking at DOES NOT WORK. When their prediction is 2 orders of magnitude from the eventual reality, they may as well have gotten their answers from a crystal ball. Part of the problem is that the people that do this are academics and ego is a big part of the academic model. They get paid for doing impressive research; even if it is wrong. Ferguson's fall to earth for his dalliance is a typical tactic to "explain" that we shouldn't have listened to THIS PERSON. The reality is, the whole process of predictive analysis is sketchy.
14 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Highlander 5/7/2020 7:14:03 AM (No. 403497)
Let’s say he “pre-tested” his canoodling partner before getting down to business with her. Otherwise, if he threw all caution to the wind before hopping into the sack, then I would assume he used a dart board to make his dire and costly predictions for the entire world to plunge into panicked chaos. I write this as a serious question of integrity on his part, which is also sorely lacking in the media and offices of blue-state governors in this country.
6 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Sam1 5/7/2020 7:30:47 AM (No. 403511)
Bill Gates owns a lot of ppl including Ferguson and Fauci.
19 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: mizzmac 5/7/2020 8:01:37 AM (No. 403551)
Forget Pelosi's accusation that Trump is "fiddling while Rome burns." It appears Dr. Lockdown is diddling while the world burns.
18 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: seamusm 5/7/2020 8:24:13 AM (No. 403586)
Ferguson's covid model - like his past estimations - is just a worst-case estimate based on 'what horrible number would be newsworthy' methodology. No one ever holds him accountable and in spite of his current embarrassment he will sadly find another job.
11 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Catfur27 5/7/2020 8:29:36 AM (No. 403594)
Hypocrisy ...they name is "Liberal" ...this just shows that the bed-wetting doomsayers don't believe their own bullschumer when it comes to their ridiculously overreaching shutdown/ shelter -in-place.
6 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: bpl40 5/7/2020 8:50:17 AM (No. 403625)
Barack Hussein signed the Paris Accord on Climate Change and then bought a $15 mill mansion on the ocean front. Do you see a common thread?
16 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: Alecto2 5/7/2020 9:34:38 AM (No. 403669)
Heard a few minutes of Rush yesterday, and he looked into the background of Antonia Staats. Leftie activist supporting "saint Greta of the climate". Campaigner for Avaaz a US nonprofit that campaigns for the usual leftie causes. I did a quick check and Ferguson has been in an open relationship with her for years and they have two kids together. Strikes me that Ferguson's model and its conclusions may have more sinister undertones.
6 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: MDConservative 5/7/2020 9:42:12 AM (No. 403682)
It appears the highly respected Neil Ferguson is the Christopher Steele of COVIDS-19. Time to "follow the money"...
5 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: pensom2 5/7/2020 10:06:43 AM (No. 403706)
Fauci listened to Ferguson, and the US media lionizes Fauci. Good grief.
5 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: earlybird 5/7/2020 10:22:15 AM (No. 403719)
The villain of the Western World, Feruson, OBE, not only made outrageous predictions from his lofty perch, but is credited with having exposed Prime Minister Boris Johnson to COVID-19, which we are now told almost cost the PM his life.
8 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: earlybird 5/7/2020 10:23:42 AM (No. 403721)
3 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: Strike3 5/7/2020 11:34:34 AM (No. 403784)
We have a CDC that we have been financing for decades but we used numbers from a Brit and his faulty computer models? Every time I say "unbelievable" it gets topped by a newer and more outrageous fact.
6 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: stablemoney 5/7/2020 12:47:48 PM (No. 403906)
Why is it that a British scientist with a fraudulent model, and a former MI6 British intelligence officer, Christopher Steele, the people that have destroyed our economy, and the presidency? The British left have joined with the Democrats to destroy Trump, and all the deploreables. Trump got by Steele, but has succumbed to Fauci and Birx. Now we have 30 million unemployed, a severely crippled energy, airline, entertainment, restaurant, and retail industries, many of whom will not survive. And all of it for a leftist fraud to get power, and the blue state governors have shown us what that jackboot power would be like.
1 person likes this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: DVC 5/7/2020 2:45:43 PM (No. 404025)
The Iron Fist inside the left's velvet "we care so much" gloves is showing through in this situation. Pay attention people, the left are totalitarian thugs. All of them.
2 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: DVC 5/8/2020 2:59:00 AM (No. 404621)
Sounds like Ferguson read about Paul Ehrlich and said, "I want some of that action!" especially the part where you make huge, "important" and scary predictions.....which reality never even remotely approaches. And yet, the next time, and the next time and the NEXT TIME you make similarly 'important and scary' predictions, they are taken seriously, and yet, when they are proven to be BS, your reputation is untarnished. How in the world does anyone trust this idiot when he predicted huge 'mad cow' disease deaths and the reality is only one US news reader is affected?
0 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: Samsquanch 5/20/2020 11:05:25 AM (No. 416859)
This guy should be in permanent lockdown w/o his lefty girlfriend for causing worldwide panic using fake computer models.
0 people like this.

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