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Beware the Confident Experts, Take 2

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Posted By: Garnet, 5/20/2020 11:04:11 AM

Shortly after the 2016 election, an editor from my alumni magazine emailed to say she was putting together a collection of essays exploring Donald Trump’s presidency and asked if I’d be willing to contribute an article on “lessons learned” from the election. My piece, titled “Beware the Confident Experts,” appeared in the March 2017 issue of the Princeton Alumni Weekly and laid out the case for the why the polls weren’t nearly as wrong in 2016 as the pundits were. I went back through the data to show the race was objectively close, but that’s not how it was presented to the American people by the supposed experts. I wrote:

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Reply 1 - Posted by: sehall 5/20/2020 2:32:36 PM (No. 417087)
The term "confidence man" has been around a long time and is still applicable today. I just finished reading the galley version of a new book due out in mid-July, "The King of Confidence: A Tale of Utopian Dreamers, Frontier Schemers, True Believers, False Prophets, and the Murder of an American Monarch". Fascinating read.
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Reply 2 - Posted by: anniebc 5/20/2020 2:59:14 PM (No. 417110)
But was the 2016 race objectively close? Without the cheating, I mean? Hillary couldn't fill an elementary cafagymnatorium.
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Reply 3 - Posted by: MDConservative 5/20/2020 5:03:13 PM (No. 417164)
"Think critically and do not be afraid of bucking the conventional wisdom when appropriate." Excellent advice.
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Reply 4 - Posted by: bobmadison 5/20/2020 5:56:06 PM (No. 417180)
In today's world, ain't nobody no "Expert" on nuttin'.
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Beware the Confident Experts, Take 2 4 replies
Posted by Garnet 5/20/2020 11:04:11 AM Post Reply
Shortly after the 2016 election, an editor from my alumni magazine emailed to say she was putting together a collection of essays exploring Donald Trump’s presidency and asked if I’d be willing to contribute an article on “lessons learned” from the election. My piece, titled “Beware the Confident Experts,” appeared in the March 2017 issue of the Princeton Alumni Weekly and laid out the case for the why the polls weren’t nearly as wrong in 2016 as the pundits were. I went back through the data to show the race was objectively close, but that’s not how it was presented to the American people by the supposed experts. I wrote:
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