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Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME
Model Used by White House; Actual
Numbers Are a Fraction of Expected

Original Article

Posted By: Maryland_Patriot, 4/3/2020 11:13:38 PM

Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” (snip) The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%) Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%) Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%) Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%) Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%) New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)

Comments:

About time these highly inaccurate models are called out. Much like the "climate change" models.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: greggojo 4/3/2020 11:45:47 PM (No. 367765)
This is very interesting. Is it the CDC who decided to use these models? Given that America's entire media complex has been doing almost nothing but covering (and assuring us they've become instant experts) coronavirus, how did they miss this glaring mistake?
8 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: davew 4/3/2020 11:54:44 PM (No. 367770)
The bias is due to the belief that the rate of spread and percentage of hospitalization needed is comparable for all states. This seems ridiculous because the population densities and social separation distances are radically different. New York and New Jersey rely heavily on public transportation while most other locations in the country use private vehicles. Even if the model's projected numbers are too high the best strategy is still to minimize the death toll by separating more vulnerable populations from potential carriers of the virus. Along with better surveillance testing to identify asymptomatic carriers it might give some states enough confidence to lift the shutdown of non-essential businesses earlier than April 30. Newsom in California will be key to relaxing the shutdown.
8 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: MissGrits 4/3/2020 11:59:08 PM (No. 367772)
Surely Trump knows these numbers ... and besides, who wants to be compared on anything with NYC?
3 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: BeatleJeff 4/3/2020 11:59:53 PM (No. 367773)
I'm not a scientist or a medical expert. I'm an accountant, so I do know how to look at numbers and statistics, And I've been saying for a few weeks now that the number of cases so far has been disproportionate to all of the hyperventilating being done by the politicians and the media, But if you dare point out how minuscule the actual number of cases are, the lemmings on Facebook and such all schiff bricks and try to drown you out.. I do believe in the end we skeptics will be proven right that this was seriously overblown. Then the task will be to identify the guilty parties along with their motivation.
26 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: planetgeo 4/4/2020 12:05:34 AM (No. 367778)
I've been tracking the data on a daily basis for the last two weeks, and for at least the last 5 days I've been posting here that the stats do not support the projections being used by the national media as the reason for the continued lockdown measures. It's unbelievable to me that such sloppy work continues to be put forth as justification without serious objections by reputable statisticians.
17 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Heraclitus 4/4/2020 1:07:19 AM (No. 367809)
President Trump's instincts were right, as they usually are. He understands the American psyche, like de Tocqueville did as he traveled around the newly forged USA. Then, the media seized upon the idea that people would be dying because others went back to work too soon. Obviously not many of those media "check-pants" understand Americans, American patriots, when they mocked President Trump's brilliant and important assertion that the cure could be worse than the disease. Those statisticians are just that. They perform an important function, but they aren't elected as Chief Executive. They are fallible --and don't we know that. This mistake I think is terrifying them: how do they ask the people to forgive them when they say, Oooops. This is a vicious contagion. But release the country from confinement. I think the new protocol for masks may be their way of phasing out the "shelter in place" orders.
11 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: NotaBene 4/4/2020 1:44:58 AM (No. 367834)
Models mean nothing. For example some morons (sorry, Greta) believe that the earth is warming. Fauci destroyed our economy to protect our hospitals which always had just the minimum number of ICU beds so that the just in time inventory is profitable. The Comfort has 3 patients yesterday, the Mercy 13. There is no patient overload. The Chinise Flu is not strong enough even to fill our faulty hospitals. This is a hoax imposed on US by flawed models from Gates, Fauci and Birx. All Democrats. Huge mistake to put doctors in control of the country. Get us back to work by Easter, dear President Donald Trump.
8 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: GoodDeal 4/4/2020 1:46:17 AM (No. 367836)
It’s not the nature of the facts it’s the seriousness of the manufactured crisis and the opening to take political advantage and do a daylight robbery of the US Treasury. Nothing here to question. This isn’t the real data you are looking for. Nothing here to see. Move along.
1 person likes this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: Chuzzles 4/4/2020 2:58:58 AM (No. 367860)
Rush not only went scorched earth on this subject during his first Friday hour, but he is calling for those who created these models to appear in public and explain their methods. The fact the gate keepers of the Swamp are refusing to allow this should start telling everyone what BS these models are. And what globalist ghouls Fauci, Birx and their puppetmasters Gates and Soros are.
6 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: Bur Oak 4/4/2020 8:01:52 AM (No. 368045)
Most of the government helps themselves not the common citizen.
1 person likes this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: jerrodmason 4/4/2020 9:19:51 AM (No. 368123)
Follow the money, real or metaphorical (power, prestige, political gain).
1 person likes this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: privateer 4/4/2020 10:12:25 AM (No. 368193)
Of course the CDC, the MSM, and all the commiecrats are lying about the numbers. This was never about the virus, or about protecting the health of our people. It is, and always was a diabolical plot to cripple seriously, if not mortally, the rip-roaring economy---with its prosperity and well-being---which had it continued would have made Trump's re-election an absolute certainty. The Climate hysteria hobbyhorse is lame and shopworn, RAYcism is a foolish shibboleth, and Trump's persona is growing on those who originally were put off by it. SO...something drastic and deadly was fired at the heart of America.
2 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: curious1 4/4/2020 10:33:16 AM (No. 368218)
#12, it looks like they missed. We won't, when returning fire.
0 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: bighambone 4/4/2020 11:37:13 AM (No. 368313)
Those are all guesstimates as nobody knows for sure what the final numbers will be, as nothing like this pandemic has ever happened before in most people’s lifetimes.
0 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: JackBurton 4/4/2020 12:36:05 PM (No. 368375)
Good: I've always heard that you should underpromise and over perform. A low mortality after the sensational projections would be great but Bad: It means we've shut down the economy because of a bunch of weak kneed doomsayers.
0 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: Smart11344 4/4/2020 1:26:37 PM (No. 368428)
In the 50's there was a game show called, "Who Do You Trust?" Then it became "Do You Trust Your Wife?" I was only a kid I may be wrong on which show came first. But the titles certainly make me thing it must have originated in Washington DC. It was hosted by Johnny Carson.
1 person likes this.

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