Numerators and Denominators in
the Coronavirus Saga
American Thinker,
by
Clarice Feldman
Original Article
Posted By: Judy W.,
3/29/2020 5:20:07 AM
To ascertain how fatal a virus is, we need an accurate picture of how many people have it (the denominator) and how many have died as a result (the numerator), we have neither, but the data is improving and with it some substantial shifts away from the original model, which predicted far more deaths as a result of the Wuhan virus than we are seeing. (Rather like the Zika scare where the claim that virus resulted in natal microcephaly was proven upon examination to be anecdotal and not scientific -- but only after the WHO declared it a pandemic
Reply 1 - Posted by:
John C 3/29/2020 6:32:13 AM (No. 361429)
Lets get back to business. The computer models were wrong and the press still want to destroy the President.
21 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
DCGIRL 3/29/2020 6:52:41 AM (No. 361433)
This was one big flaw. The models were accidentally flawed or done on purpose. No one should get away with this destructive error, someone needs to be held responsible. WHO should be dismantled to a degree that it only supports the third world countries. We should kick every WHO employee out of the U.S. and they should set up their operation in the Congo. Also, my question is, why didn't someone here in the U.S. challenge Neil Ferguson (Imperial College) that authored the defective finding of a pandemic that is not there. This virus is like every other virus or it maybe weaker. Let's stop the panic and get people back to work. Now the democrats are saying we should be locked down for 2 or 3 months......crazy.
30 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
TruthFetish 3/29/2020 7:14:53 AM (No. 361443)
If it's Sunday, it's another Clarice MUST-READ. This woman is a national treasure!
16 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Bur Oak 3/29/2020 7:21:06 AM (No. 361448)
A lot of elected officials have used this virus to exercise their dictatorial powers contrary to the Constitution. They have destroyed a lot of businesses without good cause. This is like the global warming scare on steroids. I can't wait to vote in November.
22 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
LesUNo 3/29/2020 8:03:52 AM (No. 361487)
The virus has become a weapon to herd and control the masses and is supported and encouraged by the Democrat media. This country was not made great by the supplicant. We need to regain control of our lives. Live responsibly and get back to work. Fly over country elected President Trump. Now he needs to return the favor. In my tri-country area only one person has even tested positive and is asymptomatic. Yet our businesses and services are shuttered , church services cancelled and children out of school for the foreseeable future. Enough! Some common sense is in order.
14 people like this.
I know of no other virus or plague in history that targeted old people, without harming young children.
There has been some information written about this being a virus out of a lab, that has perhaps been tinkered with a bit.
I can think of some in our country who wanted more flights coming in from China, who by chance would also prefer a younger voting population.
8 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
philsner 3/29/2020 8:45:44 AM (No. 361522)
We are being told we are all going to die by the same people who tell us we have less than 10 years to live if we don't get rid of all cows.
STOP LISTENING TO LEFTISTS!
5 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
LtE126 3/29/2020 8:45:47 AM (No. 361523)
Clarice Feldman is a gem.
4 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
planetgeo 3/29/2020 9:11:39 AM (No. 361559)
Not only do I agree that even the flawed data we currently have indicates that at worst this is only a somewhat worse disease that seasonal flu and so we should end the quarantines soon, but I also submit that certain entities should be held accountable with serious consequences. Definitely start with WHO, as suggested by the article. Clearly they are operating as an agent of China. We should stop contributing any funding through any channel, and they should be decertified as a trusted source of health data.
But I wouldn't stop there. Here in the U.S., the CDC in particular, but also the FDA and HHS should be seriously investigated, with not only policies and procedures changed, but certain people fired. The CDC's main mission, "Centers for Disease Control," has been a massive failure. We have the world's best supercomputers, the best medical technology, best supply chains, best scientists...so how the heck could they be so slow and so clueless in preparedness, procedures, and forecast modeling? Why was our entire country locked down and our economy ruined based on some unbelievably amateurish model built by a single scientist at some college in the UK?
Changes need to be made. Our President - ANY President - needs to have reliable advisors and models in order to make the correct, prudent decisions in such serious situations. Fix it. Now.
10 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
HotRod 3/29/2020 9:48:10 AM (No. 361598)
Models have their place, but not to make unilateral decisions regarding human life! Every time we are presented with forecasts developed by a model, it turns out to be significantly wrong. Just looking at the models cited, for example, in the story should put to rest any confidence in the GW/Climate Change models giving us prediction for 75 years in the future!
The problem is that the media and other opportunists like to use models for their own agendas. They use the models as the last word, until the next model is published. They can't wait for data and analysis.
6 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
Strike3 3/29/2020 10:05:01 AM (No. 361610)
How important is that denominator because it can't possibly be accurate? Many people had the virus and recovered before test kits were available. Many people had mild cases and didn't bother to take a test and it's still happening. It's more dangerous to wait in line for test than to sit home. We have heard of faulty test kits, how many were used and results recorded? Cruise ships are not an accurate sample because people on those ships tend to be older and can not isolate themselves like farmers in Montana or Indiana can just by living their normal lives.
We do not track total number of cases of the flu and colds because most people suffer in silence rather than see a doctor because many people can no longer afford a doctor but Kleenex, nasal spray and aspirin are relatively cheap. The death rate is important, the number of mild cases, not so much. All indications is that the true death rate is under 1% but that figure does not fit the Left's narrative.
3 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
lakerman1 3/29/2020 10:05:04 AM (No. 361611)
in a related matter concerning the W.H.O., you people may have seen those lawyer ads soliciting clients who developed cancer and also used the weed killer Roundup.
The CDC could find no connection between Roundup, a widely used weed killer, at home and on farms, and cancer. But the W.H.O. found a connection, and lawyers overrode CDC, and were able to introduce WHO conclusions in court, resulting in huge jury awards against the manufacturers of the product.
If Roundup really did cause cancer, just about everyone in Iowa would have the disease, given the fact that roundup is used by the ton on Iowa crops.
I don't trust the W.H.O. for anything, and that is unfortunate.
but I love Clarice!
2 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
Strike3 3/29/2020 10:15:59 AM (No. 361616)
I agree with comments about computer models. As a former programmer I know that it is difficult and complicated to line up raw data and computer code to yield accurate results. I would trust anything written by college kids even less because they do not live in the real world and would not recognize anomalies and variants. Look what they have done with Global Warming over the past forty years. The virus is real but the danger is highly exaggerated.
4 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
LC Chihuahua 3/29/2020 11:16:10 AM (No. 361692)
I keep watching the corona virus counters. Fox News is currently reporting 124k cases and 2.1k fatalities for corona virus in the United States. That's well over 1%. Of course the only people being tested at this point in time are only those reporting illness in the first place. They aren't testing everybody. Until they do, the percentage is likely to stay over 1%.
2 people like this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
Winstonian 3/29/2020 11:22:40 AM (No. 361704)
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain
3 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
Videodrone 3/29/2020 12:26:58 PM (No. 361842)
As usual Clarice provides a sane look at the ongoing crazy.
And in the mean time it has exposed a lot of would be "rulers for life" who have raced each other to proclaim edicts that stomp on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd(!) and 4th amendments and there needs to be some serious push back!
Personally, the first nice day the Shelby is going topless to the coast.
1 person likes this.
Reply 17 - Posted by:
DVC 3/29/2020 5:41:25 PM (No. 362205)
All good points by Ms. Feldman. Always worth reading what she has to say.
I had a nice long Skype with a 20 year old friend in Kiev today. She says that they are "on quarantine", and can only go out for food and critical things, hasn't been out of her apartment in 3 days. A young friend of hers had a respiratory illness in December which turned into pneumonia, and required several days in the hospital. She says that the doctors couldn't identify what it was then, and it didn't act like anything that they had seen previously, didn't respond to normal treatments very well, but she got over it and is fine now. She and her friend are convinced that it was Wuhan flu, and I think that is pretty likely the case, too. There is a lot of travel between Kiev and Russia, and large numbers of Chinese tourists in St. Petersburg, IME.
I think it is going to turn out that this thing escaped China in November or December, and there are probably a whole lot of folks all around the world who have already had it, gotten over it and no longer will be part of spreading it.
This old guy is going to take some precautions even after we get the restaurants back open. But we need to get the country back opened up soon.
Also, numbers of reported new cases in NY state are down two days in a row now. NY jiggering it's numbers or is it really slowing down in NY? A trend to watch, no conclusions can be drawn yet.
1 person likes this.
Reply 18 - Posted by:
navydadsquared 3/29/2020 10:28:18 PM (No. 362440)
I posted my take on this situation that closely reflect Ms. Feldman's on a other thread. Was told that the outlandish measures being taken may save my life. I am 68, have lung cancer and heart issues. I do not need the government to save my life. I"ll take care of myself. Please Mr. President do not destroy the economy, cause small businesses to fold and allow families to suffer. We can climb out of this and open the country for business at the same time.
2 people like this.
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Another fine Clarice piece on our current plague.