What could sink Trump’s chances in 2020?
Telegraph-Herald [Dubuque, IA],
by
Victor Davis Hanson
Original Article
Posted By: MissMolly,
8/29/2019 3:55:28 AM
What factors usually reelect or throw out incumbent presidents?
The economy counts most.
Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.
The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush was to blame for the meltdown and that McCain, his potential Republican successor, would be even worse.
A once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan fought recession for three years. Yet he soared to a landslide victory
Source location added by Staff.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
HisHandmaiden 8/29/2019 6:37:28 AM (No. 165404)
“Add up all these factors, and a currently unpopular Trump will still likely be harder to beat than his confident media detractors and enraged progressive critics can imagine.”
Sorry, VDH, in spite of your smile in the picture, your phrase here about ‘currently unpopular’ is questionable... even Fake News.
Turn off the media, get out of our CA, talk to voters who will tell you truth ...
15 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
Rinktum 8/29/2019 6:38:34 AM (No. 165407)
It is going to be a hard fought battle because of the outright insanity of the left. Not only does this President have to fight the media, entertainment industry, academia, and the democrat party, he will have to overcome the interference of Big Tech and all the voter fraud the opposition can drum up. I don’t expect it to be a cake walk and neither does the President. It would be helpful if the Republican Party including the leadership would come together and fight hard fo re-elect this President. Unfortunately, many will oppose him for whatever reason and it will be up to we the people to defeat the democrats and allow this President one more term to implement his agenda. We can do it but it is going to be a massive effort. It will be worth it, however, if nothing else than to watch the left’s complete and total meltdown. It is going to be ugly and fraught with illegalities, but we must do our part to save this country from the insane road they are determined to travel. Can you even imagine the country under the control of these ideological fascists? The country would never be the same again. Donald J. Trump is our last best hope to keep the country out of the hands of the left. Now more than ever, Trump 2020!
40 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
walcb 8/29/2019 7:35:40 AM (No. 165477)
VDH forgot to mention Joe Walsh as a factor. I wonder why :-)
2 people like this.
Two things could beat him; a recession at the election run up, and voter fraud.
We already see your beloved "news" industry doing all it can to talk us into a recession, even an imaginary one. And we know that voter fraud is an ongoing socialist election tactic. That's a big reason they want to flood the country with illegals and get as many of them to the polls as possible.
Take nothing for granted. The roaring economy would guarantee Trump's re-election under normal circumstances, but things are far from normal. Get out to vote, early and often.
16 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
worried 8/29/2019 9:02:43 AM (No. 165560)
VDH, Clinton didn't "easily defeat" Bush. The main blame goes to Ross Perot, who siphoned off so many conservative votes that the pervert was able to win. At least, that's what I believe, and always will!
18 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
hershey 8/29/2019 10:10:44 AM (No. 165619)
NOTHING!!!! MAGA!!!!! KAG!!!! The Trumpster will tromp whomever survives the klown kar krash....
7 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
Lawsy0 8/29/2019 11:20:23 AM (No. 165736)
Ain't buying the ''once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan'' meme either. He was the most beloved President in the 20th Century. Get over it.
8 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
NotaBene 8/29/2019 11:23:40 AM (No. 165744)
It will be a landslide because Mexicans and Blacks are much better off with President Trump.
5 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
mc squared 8/29/2019 12:32:36 PM (No. 165859)
#9; Yes, but will enough leave the Democrat plantation to vote for DJT. Many still believe that Obama's policies brought the good economy.
2 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Franz 8/29/2019 12:56:19 PM (No. 165879)
Some other factors to consider are that the Progressives/Democrats are the experts at generating votes for Progressives/Democrats. "Vote harvesting" overwhelming produces votes for Progressives/Democrats. The dead also vote a solid Progressives/Democrats ticket. And, it was found that many illegal aliens are registered to vote (thank you Motor-Voter) in areas where somebody bothered to check.
No, we cannot allow ourselves to become complacent. We need to come out in force and vote for President Trump, and those who will supporter him, by a wide margin.
5 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
Strike3 8/29/2019 12:57:27 PM (No. 165881)
I respect VDH but this is not one of his best efforts. Jimmy Carter was laughable and ineffective. Home mortgage rates in the high double digits were his fatal mistake, the economy was damaged for that reason alone. John McCain was never presidential material. Bill Clinton had the ability to be presidential but his judgement was that of a twelve-year-old. GWB swallowed bad advice time after time and never showed any backbone. Saudi Arabia financed and implemented the 9/11 attack and GWB attacked Afghanistan. That's a Joe Biden move. Barack Obama should not have beaten anybody but the MSM elected him due to his suntan and his beautiful wife. We were very sensitive to the new charge of racism at the time and allowed it to happen. Hillary is not presidential material.
We no longer believe polls, scare tactics concerning the economy or the Climate Change silliness. The old adage of being caught in bed with a dead girl or a young boy no longer applies to politicians so the only thing that can beat Donald Trump is massive voter fraud, that's it. If the democrats pull that one off, it will not be a peaceful transition, count on it.
3 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
YorkieMom 8/29/2019 2:00:32 PM (No. 165942)
Mr. Hanson is right on all counts, including Trump’s unpopularity, according to every poll. Even the people who voted for Trump in 2016 and intend to vote for him again say they wish he’d stop tweeting so often, especially when he tweets about the people who aren’t important.
1 person likes this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
Mekkkk 8/29/2019 3:06:15 PM (No. 165973)
I cannot see at the moment any hurdle

0 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
little guy 8/29/2019 4:15:48 PM (No. 166033)
Trump can be defeated with an orchestrated downturn in the economy provided by national and international forces; voter fraud provided by national and international forces; and, a third party candidate financed by national and international forces. Look for all three. In truth, because of everything Trump has accomplished in the last 2.5 years and because Democrats are all totally insane, this re-election should be a cake walk. But, with the much of the world and the US deep staters gunning for him and I believe pooling their resources, this is going to be a very tough road for him.
0 people like this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
ravenhaven 8/29/2019 5:14:53 PM (No. 166050)
I thought so, until today. If the coup plotters do not get indicted, it’s over for Trump. Two feckless attorneys general, turning the country over to the Gestapo, outweigh any other good he does. I don’t know who would stay with him.
0 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
Hojczyk 8/29/2019 6:48:54 PM (No. 166110)
Democrats manufacturing balots in the cities they rum..
0 people like this.
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