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Does racial diversity cause lower fertility?

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Posted By: Judy W., 9/9/2024 9:30:00 AM

I know, it sounds like a far right conspiracy theory, however: (Snip) In the United States, local measures of racial and ethnic diversity are robustly associated with lower birth rates. A one standard deviation decrease in racial concentration (having people of many different races nearby) or increase in racial isolation (being from a numerically smaller race in that area) is associated with 0.064 and 0.044 fewer children, respectively, after controlling for many other drivers of birth rates. (Snip) The rise in racial diversity in the US since 1970 explains 44% of the decline in birth rates during that period, and 89% of the drop since 2006.

Comments:

This is stunning. (The first snip is the details of the study he is referring to.)

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Kate318 9/9/2024 9:43:09 AM (No. 1792913)
Interesting…
1 person likes this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: thethirdruffian 9/9/2024 9:49:38 AM (No. 1792918)
Racial diversity increases crime and lowers income. Both make having children a bad idea.
6 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: NamVet70 9/9/2024 10:24:30 AM (No. 1792934)
There is a difference between correlation and causation. This correlation may exist because of reasons other than fertility or genetics. It is likely that upwardly mobile young people of all races find themselves living somewhere because of the job market of their chosen field and therefore find themselves in proximity to other upwardly mobile young workers who defer childbearing because they are also focused on work rather than family. Similarly people without career aspirations are likely to settle in proximity to people of similar race. Racial diversity correlating with birthrate probably does not prove cause.
2 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: FLCracker 9/9/2024 10:53:13 AM (No. 1792952)
After the Civil War into the middle 1900s, there was the idea that mixed race people were sickly and frequently didn't survice into adulthood. This was based on the disappearance of Mulattos (and similar classifications) from census records and other records that recorded that type of information. Turns out that the Mulattos weren't dying, they just weren't calling themselves that anymore. Prior to the Civil War, if a person could pass for White, you frequently did. If you couldn't, next-best thing was to be classified as Mulatto. After the war, both Black and White societies changed and being a Mulatto was no longer an advantage in either, so people chose whichever other category they could fill and in which they felt comfortable. (And this is a lot more complicated than it sounds.) So, Mulattos disappeared. I suspect, as #3 says, we have some sort of similar correlation, not causation, going on here. #2, you got statistics on that?
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Reply 5 - Posted by: thethirdruffian 9/9/2024 11:06:36 AM (No. 1792966)
#4. Sure, there’s a ton of studies on it. Here’s the first one from Google: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/further-evidence-relationship-between-population-diversity-and Or here: “ According to a landmark 2002 study, diversity correlated with lower GDP, worse governance and, interestingly, equatorial latitude.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/16/a-revealing-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-ethnically-diverse-countries/
2 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: PostAway 9/9/2024 12:40:38 PM (No. 1793002)
I read this article and after close analysis I have concluded that…..yum…..donuts.
1 person likes this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Strike3 9/9/2024 12:43:11 PM (No. 1793004)
Pure nonsense. It's a social problem. The middle class can no longer afford to have children at past rates so the birth rate is down. Only the poor and the welfare crowd now have children because they can get working taxpayers to support them. The end result is that America is slowly going Third World.
1 person likes this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: udanja99 9/9/2024 2:02:29 PM (No. 1793032)
All I can tell you about this is that my Mexican/white daughter and her half black/white husband have had 3 kids in the last 4.5 years. (And they’re both employed, no welfare ever.)
0 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: red1066 9/9/2024 7:03:35 PM (No. 1793156)
So, all those advertisers that have an interracial couple with children of various racial makeups are really hawking their products for childless couples?
0 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: FLCracker 9/10/2024 9:39:27 AM (No. 1793406)
The computer ate my homework. Yesterday, I wrote a comment on Replies #2 & #4, but somehow it didn't post. So here is an abbreviated comment. Th articles referred to in Reply #4 are reporting on the diversity of populations within a nation, not on how "diverse" (mixed) an individual's background is and its effect upon crime and income. The criteria in the articles also reporting on various kinds of diversity, not just "racial" which I assume is the "biological" tag in one article; another examines includes "economic" diversity.
1 person likes this.

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I know, it sounds like a far right conspiracy theory, however: (Snip) In the United States, local measures of racial and ethnic diversity are robustly associated with lower birth rates. A one standard deviation decrease in racial concentration (having people of many different races nearby) or increase in racial isolation (being from a numerically smaller race in that area) is associated with 0.064 and 0.044 fewer children, respectively, after controlling for many other drivers of birth rates. (Snip) The rise in racial diversity in the US since 1970 explains 44% of the decline in birth rates during that period, and 89% of the drop since 2006.
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