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Forget the Polls — Trump Is Still Winning

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Posted By: MissMolly, 10/30/2020 4:31:45 AM

Twelve years ago, when the Republican Party nominated John McCain as its presidential candidate, he got less than 46 percent of the popular vote and only 173 Electoral College votes. Whatever happens on Election Day this year, almost no one expects President Trump to do worse than that. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight poll-based prediction, we enter the final weekend before Election Day with an 89 percent likelihood that Joe Biden will win. Basically, the odds are 8-to-1 against Trump’s reelection. Yet the president’s supporters are undaunted, recalling that Silver’s final 2016 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of being elected and yet Trump beat her in a result

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Reply 1 - Posted by: PChristopher 10/30/2020 4:42:34 AM (No. 589278)
HIS will be done.
64 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: OBX Pete 10/30/2020 4:47:35 AM (No. 589280)
Bottom line is that polls say whatever lefties WANT the results of the election to be and the voters say what they WILL be. This is the same old crap that the lefties pull every time. The crowds don't lie !!! TRUMP BY A LANDSLIDE !!!!!!
85 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: DCGIRL 10/30/2020 4:54:32 AM (No. 589282)
I hope so. My back and neck are full of knots from tension. I just want this damn election over and get 4 more years with our great president.
119 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: BillW. 10/30/2020 5:08:20 AM (No. 589287)
He (we) face willful ignorance. Responding to emails about Biden's traitorous collusion with Chinese Communists, a neighbor calls it "political." That's the level of thought behind all those "Biden/Heels Up" yard signs, just as it was with the PIAPS and Hussein. --Veterans for Trump 2020
60 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: jeffkinnh 10/30/2020 6:20:25 AM (No. 589317)
I dislike the term "miracle victory" for this election. For everything except the rigged polls, things are trending for Trump being stronger than in 2016 and the dems being weaker. Since the dems lost in 2016, it would be likely they lose again. The pollsters are trying to juggle rotten cabbages; their numbers reek and they are falling apart in their hands. More Blacks and Hispanics are supporting Trump. Women benefited from the surge in jobs that Trump engineered, don't like the dem violence, and aren't fond of Hair Sniffy, Creepy Joe. Youth are wave voters when someone excites them as a whole. No one is appealing to them in 2020, they probably won't show up in significant numbers. Labor is split with business labor, an old dem staple, going to Trump. Civil service employees are supporting big government dems, as always. Moderate dems do NOT like the Leftist Communists being in charge of the party. Some of the Bernie Bros have declared they won't support Biden. The media was still a somewhat potent force in 2016 and pretended to be unbiased. Now they have announced they are anti Trump and have devolved into babbling with a great decrease in their credibility. In general, the dem party is deeply fractured and innervated. Biden is running a slo mo campaign that often shuts down for the day by noon. He is drawing no crowds. Meanwhile, Trump now has the advantages of the incumbent and an undeniably successful first term. The Republican party is united behind him and he is leaching significant support from many dem "identity" groups. He is drawing large and enthusiastic crowds. He is out from under the Russian shadow that Hillary's team cast on him. A third signatory to Middle East peace was just accomplished and that IS a miracle that has every chance of expanding. A COVID vaccine is imminent, MUCH faster than ANYONE in the bureaucracy claimed could be done. The economy, although it still has a way to go, is roaring back. Trump's organization and ground game is stellar and after whipping COVID in a week, Trump has been indefatigable in his activities. Dems are desperately trying to convince us that Joe is competitive. It's a lie. Dems have less of almost everything and Trump has much more.
86 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Strike3 10/30/2020 7:32:26 AM (No. 589350)
I bought the champagne weeks ago.
33 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: RedWhite&Blue2 10/30/2020 7:41:34 AM (No. 589358)
No tension here I have it Trump 330 Biden 208 Landslide! Then they better watch out!
48 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: bpl40 10/30/2020 7:44:34 AM (No. 589362)
Here is a 'model' I have been working on in my mind. I have decades of professional experience as a modeler, forecaster in Hi Tech - though not in politics. The usual measurements are (1) voters' choice (2) voters' expectations, this time have a third addition (1A) called real/hidden voter expectations.. It exists mainly due to the atmosphere of divisiveness, hate, anger and fear unleashed by the Democrats and their agents. Some pollsters like Rasmussen, Trafalger are attempting to delve into this. Pollsters like Gallup are reporting on 2.. Expectation have been a far more accurate predictor of the final outcome in last six US Presidential elections. Even in the UK and France. All in all the current state of these factors seems to be thus - 1. Biden + 5 to 7 % 1A. Trump + 1 to 3 % 2.Trump +5 % To hedge my bets I have given weights to these factors according to their track record of reliability. These weights are 1. 50% 1A. 30% 2. 20%. This yields a result of Trump with + the popular vote. Due to Republican advantage in the Electoral College it should translate to 15 to 20 more electoral votes over his score of 306 in 2016. Also his support from minorities should make down ticket Democrats more vulnerable, allowing Republicans to hold the Senate and at least reduce the Democrat majority in the House. Lets keep our fingers crossed and pray!
40 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: bpl40 10/30/2020 7:49:10 AM (No. 589366)
1A should be real/hidden voter choice. Not expectation
9 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: bpl40 10/30/2020 7:51:27 AM (No. 589369)
Sorry. My coffee hasn't kicked in yet. The weights should be 1.20% 1A 30% 2. 50%.
9 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: walcb 10/30/2020 7:51:29 AM (No. 589370)
Clinton got 105% of the vote in some Philadelphia districts last election, this year Biden will get 115% of the vote in those districts. PA will be tough to win.
17 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: udanja99 10/30/2020 8:32:55 AM (No. 589404)
At this point, I’m beginning to think that even historically blue Minnesota might go to Trump. It’s trending somewhat red at the moment. Consider this - if you were a moderate dem and you watched the destruction of Minneapolis this past summer and watched how the mayor and your governor handled the violence, would you vote for more of that? Early voting is trending Republican much to the horror of the demonrats and most Republicans are waiting to vote in person on Election Day. I think there will be a red tsunami next Tuesday - to the point where all of those late votes in NC and PA won’t be able to bail Fingers out. As to voter fraud - PDT says that he’s on top of that and prepared for it. And I believe him.
34 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: worried 10/30/2020 8:40:41 AM (No. 589411)
Disregard what you read and hear. Just get out and vote! It's the only way to victory.
33 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: cobieone 10/30/2020 9:14:26 AM (No. 589450)
Very much disagree with some of the points made in this article. If Biden wins, it will not be just another loss. It will be a monumental shift in American politics that I don't believe we will recover for a generation. Having said that, Trump will win. For me the bottom line is, there is zero enthusiasm for Biden. Zero. Nobody is voting FOR Biden. As much as our side HATES Hillary, their side LOVES AND ADORES her. Biden has none of that. Trump, on the other hand, has millions of enthusiastic supporters who are fired up to vote FOR him. Trump wins on Tuesday. My concern is the vote counting. I truly believe we will see weeks of counting ballots, law suits, riots, Democrat meltdowns. I'm not sure this will come to a quick conclusion.
25 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: Dodge Boy 10/30/2020 9:42:00 AM (No. 589495)
The President's re-election is lining up well. Over here in my neck of the woods, early voting reveals a Trump landslide. But, these votes will largely be offset by the Peoples Republic of Denver. Lots of dark money flooding the campaigns of the dim candidate. Early on, I was a silent Trumper. Not any more. No one else in my town is either. But, yes, we have our share of dim supporters. I emailed the Trump campaign last week and asked if the President could do a rally in western Colorado and give our hard-working candidates a push. Not sure there is time, but, you never know. Given how many Trump/Pence banners line the I-70 corridor in town these days, those traveling through here should have no trouble understanding who we support and why.
17 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: Bluefindad 10/30/2020 9:45:12 AM (No. 589498)
Dem ads are so patronizing and demeaning. Drove across North Carolina a couple of days ago. Saw a number of video billboards with exactly the same flavor message: A photo of a normal looking person and "I'm a Christian. I'm pro-life. I'm voting Biden." or "I'm conservative. I value decency. I'm voting Biden". Maybe the campaign people found this effective but I don't think so. Conservatives are not herd animals like liberals.
13 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: cor-vet 10/30/2020 9:47:50 AM (No. 589504)
Besides fielding a lackluster candidate like Hiden Biden, you have Hillary jr. , who couldn't carry her own State during the dem primaries. Her cackling, eye-rolling, smirking performances aren't bringing anything to the ticket, even with her miraculous transformation from Indian to bLACK.
14 people like this.

Reply 18 - Posted by: starboard 10/30/2020 10:07:22 AM (No. 589537)
I can't watch any show that has state by state pol predictions. They are all skewed, rigged and use the same false data. Why put myself through that torture. Like # 3, the stress factor is taking it's toll. I look forward to this nightmare being over and celebrating President Trump's reelection on November 3rd.
19 people like this.

Reply 19 - Posted by: gone2pot 10/30/2020 10:10:34 AM (No. 589540)
Voted early in east Oklahoma in 2016 and also this year. Because it's so rural, the normal polling places don't open until election day and the early polling places are the county courthouses, so it's a long drive for most (including me) to vote early. Well, FWIW, in 2016, it took about 10 minutes to get inside to the voting booths with a consistent 8-10 person line outside. It was t-shirt weather. Yesterday, there was a consistent 40-50 person line outside, took about half an hour to get inside to vote and it was freaking cold and drizzly. Didn't matter.
18 people like this.

Reply 20 - Posted by: clayusmcret 10/30/2020 10:44:06 AM (No. 589588)
Only YOU can prove the polls wrong. Go out and vote.
16 people like this.

Reply 21 - Posted by: Zigrid 10/30/2020 11:36:12 AM (No. 589664)
WE are all pulling for President Trump... he will win based on the undercover vote not reported... don't listen to the polls...they are bought and paid for by the leftie marxists/blm/antifa...mob....
8 people like this.

Reply 22 - Posted by: Sorosisbehindit 10/30/2020 11:45:21 AM (No. 589674)
The pollster who was interviewed on Steve Bannon's War Room today is fascinating!
6 people like this.

Reply 23 - Posted by: Arby 10/30/2020 12:04:26 PM (No. 589692)
Superb article. I believe that DJT will triumph; I'm less optimistic that Frank Luntz's notion that this will end the polling industry is likely. The polling industry is as dishonest as the LSM, but with Fox News drinking the kool-aid what hope is there that reason will triumph? My hope is that Fox's softening will spawn a whole host of alternatives (like Newsmax) and we can develop a juggernaut of truthful, conservative media. If the republicans can get a large proportion of the Hispanic and Black vote, Katie bar the progressive door. Want more good news: the pandemic is altering the nature of higher education and reducing its market share beaucoup.
9 people like this.

Reply 24 - Posted by: Mike6 10/30/2020 1:47:55 PM (No. 589835)
Pray that Trump and beautiful Melania win the election. Democrats are Lenin Bolsheviks. They lie about everything including the polls that their mothers were virgins.
8 people like this.

Reply 25 - Posted by: Luke21 10/30/2020 1:59:48 PM (No. 589857)
This is billed as encouraging, and then all it has is discouraging information. I bailed on it.
1 person likes this.

Reply 26 - Posted by: gone2pot 10/30/2020 3:09:21 PM (No. 589943)
Oh crap, Joe just announced that he's going to mobilize Trunalimunumaprzure, so look the hell out for that! Cornpop!
7 people like this.

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