Why Trump Has a Serious
Chance of Winning. Really.
Washington Monthly,
by
Steven Waldman
Original Article
Posted By: MissMolly,
10/25/2020 4:50:27 AM
If the election were held today, Joe Biden would probably win. But there are strong signs that the race is much, much closer than you’d think from the news coverage. Donald Trump has a real shot at being reelected.
First, the president is actually more popular now than on the day he was elected. Yes, that’s right. His personal favorability rating around election day in 2016 was 37.5%. Now, it is 43.2%. There are, in fact, hundreds of thousands of Americans (if not millions) who have grown fonder of Trump.
We all know it’s not about the popular vote so let’s disregard nationwide polls that have Biden ahead by double digits.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
OBX Pete 10/25/2020 6:00:19 AM (No. 583440)
Gobbledygook.......disregard the polls. Look at the crowds. Trump draws 20-30,000 people and Biden draws 50 t0 100 if he is lucky.
I just watched a parking lot rally by Biden yesterday and there appeared to be more pumpkins lined up on the stage than people in their cars.
I said it before and I'll say it again.....Biden may be the only candidate in history to get more fraudulent votes than legal ones.
85 people like this.
The stats ol' Steve cites point to DJT, so I'm thinking he doesn't even believe Joe is going to win.
24 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
udanja99 10/25/2020 7:36:10 AM (No. 583480)
Oh, please. We don’t need stats. Anyone with open eyes, a bit of common sense and some honesty has known for months that PDT is going to win.
But that doesn’t mean that I won’t stand in line for 12 hours on 11/3 to vote for him in person.
52 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
philsner 10/25/2020 7:48:42 AM (No. 583487)
Joe Biden has no chance. This hack publication knows it.
26 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
anniebc 10/25/2020 8:20:29 AM (No. 583516)
President Trump beat the snot out of Clinton with very similar poll numbers. Joe Biden would not win if the election were held today; hence the need to cheat after the election. Much of the media believes they've been successful in making more people hate Trump, but President Trump, being the winner that he is, is more successful than them in getting more people to like, no love him. None of his crowds in 2016 were chanting we love you. Men are actually chanting they love another man in 2020, and it's far from hero worship; it's gratitude for someone in government who actually loves the country and doesn't just give lip service about it; he performs.
42 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
chance_232 10/25/2020 8:22:15 AM (No. 583520)
Here's the problem with relying on Real Clear Politics "averages". It doesn't "average" reliable polls. It averages all of them, regardless polling samples, likely voters vs registered voters vs adults. If you average three polls, one has Trump up by 1, another has trump up by 2 and the third has Biden up by 20, the result is that Biden is up by 7. I would be more inclined to follow the averages if the outliers were tossed out.
25 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
MattMusson 10/25/2020 8:34:22 AM (No. 583534)
Angry Trump supporters do not talk to the Press. Angry Trump supporters do not answer Polls.
And there are a LOT of angry Trump supporters that have not been counted.
I refused to answer polls 3 times.
39 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
bpl40 10/25/2020 9:00:43 AM (No. 583563)
Many cycles ago I realized that RCP's inclusion of outlying and dubious polls is not a random error but quite deliberately done to give quantitative backing to the political outcome they want to thrust on the voters. Once you understand that a lot of their "analyses " and forecasting becomes clearer.
13 people like this.
When you see the libs starting to acknowledge that the numbers are tightening up, you are seeing an attempt to save their reputation going forward. As Luntz said, "my profession is done" if polls are as wrong as they were in Hillary's election.
16 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Dodge Boy 10/25/2020 9:10:09 AM (No. 583572)
This kind of so-called journalism is intended for one purpose - create the notion that Trump stole the election again and set the stage for significantly increased violence and destruction in America. You thought the rioting and violence of this past summer was horrible? That was just a test drive of what's to come.
24 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
walcb 10/25/2020 9:25:53 AM (No. 583588)
Last week I had my finger hovered over the dial button for my stock broker to tell him to get me out. Today, I feel a little better but still not complacent.
8 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
Anti_democRAT 10/25/2020 9:31:21 AM (No. 583593)
Come on man!
8 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
red1066 10/25/2020 9:43:38 AM (No. 583606)
Reality is starting to hit the Socialists right in the face.
13 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 10/25/2020 9:52:32 AM (No. 583617)
"If the election were held today, Joe Biden would probably win." "Trump’s path to victory is, at this moment, only slightly less likely than it was in 2016 "
Any article that starts and ends this way is delusional. Biden is weaker than Hillary in almost every component of the dem voter profile and as we know, Hillary LOST! Blacks and Hispanics are drifting strongly toward Trump. Women are not enamored of gropey Joe and are hugely unhappy with the dem riots. Youth know that Trump brought them job opportunities and that Joe is senile. If they bother to show up, they will have no energy to support Joe. Labor likes Trump, except for the public employees. Moderate dems are appalled by Biden's Leftist pals who are running the dem party. Biden draws small crowds of mostly reporters. Trump draws 10s of thousands including a good number of dems and independants. They even rally for Trump when he is not present.
Republicans are delighted with Trump's accomplishments, crowned this week with ANOTHER Middle East peace agreement and Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation and the solidification of a Conservative SCOTUS.
Claiming that Trump's approval is only 43.2% is another lie. It's over the magic 50% mark and if the author thinks Trump will lose Texas, Florida, or Georgia I have a bridge to sell him in Brooklyn. In addition, Biden drove a stake into his own heart when he made his fracking statement. Pennsylvania and others are NOT going to be in his camp.
Dream on Leftists. Doom is coming for you.
19 people like this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
HotRod 10/25/2020 9:52:57 AM (No. 583618)
These people trying to sell polls might as well try selling a brochure on how to herd cats! There are too many variables in play, and people don't trust pollsters any more. There used to be a time when people had some level of trust that polls were objective, and results would be presented without bias. Those days are over.
11 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
Ida Lou Pino 10/25/2020 9:53:10 AM (No. 583619)
Ooh! Ooh! Ooh! Gee - - golly - - does President Trump really have a chance to win?
Ooh! Ooh! I can't believe it! Does he REALLY have a chance?
13 people like this.
Reply 17 - Posted by:
Sully 10/25/2020 10:16:52 AM (No. 583643)
What the heck is this?
I thought if PDT got 15% of the black vote it was mathematicaly impossible for pervy Joe to win. H ed could get 20%.
I'm calling bs on the entire thesis.
10 people like this.
Reply 18 - Posted by:
NorthernDog 10/25/2020 10:25:56 AM (No. 583657)
FTA: my main cautionary note is to look at the Real Clear Politics polling averages for those states way back on October 19, 2016: Pennsylvania: Clinton +6.2 Wisconsin: Clinton +7 Michigan: Clinton +11.6
And the media was braying that 'Trump has no path to 270'. Voters went to the polls anyways. And Hillzabub's glass ceiling crashed down on her.
12 people like this.
Reply 19 - Posted by:
Strike3 10/25/2020 10:30:28 AM (No. 583660)
Biden's only chance to come close is if the vote fraud works and is not challenged by the feds. I can't see Donald Trump graciously handing the presidency to this brain-scrambled, crooked loser.
Leave your stock accounts alone. Mine is up 50K over January 2020 and I fully expect the same or better performance next year.
12 people like this.
Reply 20 - Posted by:
tlyons1 10/25/2020 11:47:27 AM (No. 583753)
But..... but, tubby Luntz says polls will damage his reputation if President Trump wins!!
7 people like this.
Reply 21 - Posted by:
Zigrid 10/25/2020 6:35:49 PM (No. 584047)
Forget the polls... look at the rallies... that's the real poll...the very anxious pollsters are trying to discourage President Trump voters... don't listen to them... WE are gonna win in a red tsunami...trust the president...
2 people like this.
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