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If Trump’s Tariffs Work, It Will Be Epic

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Posted By: Moritz55, 4/5/2025 11:34:11 AM

We have no doubt that Leavitt’s prediction will come true. Whether it’s remembered for being a success or as Smoot-Hawley 2.0 remains to be seen. “It is going to work,” Leavitt said. “And the president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades.” That’s a bit of an odd boast, given that the economists who have been studying tariffs and trade policy for decades had long ago decided that tariffs are a sledgehammer approach that rarely work as intended, that they are a wildly expensive way to create jobs, don’t spur economic growth, protect uncompetitive U.S. firms, and are an ineffective diplomatic tool.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: DVC 4/5/2025 11:35:59 AM (No. 1927372)
No "If" about it. They WILL work.
16 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Italiano 4/5/2025 11:47:51 AM (No. 1927381)
Even more epic will be the smackdowns of the Never Trump eunuchs predicting economic Armageddon, beginning with He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named.
11 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: bpl40 4/5/2025 11:51:19 AM (No. 1927383)
They WILL work. Their not working is like water flowing uphill. Some malintervention or sabotage will have to be involved. Beware!
8 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Quigley 4/5/2025 11:56:21 AM (No. 1927388)
FTA: "All of which suggests that Trump wants to build a large and permanent tariff wall around the country. We are hard-pressed to believe that will work, but Trump has proved us wrong before." In an excellent EXCELLENT interview with Tucker Carlson, Scott Bessent- the Secretary of Treasury- said that as the tariffs succeed in equalizing the playing field, revenue from domestic manufacturing growth will increase and tariff revenues will decrease. There is no intention on the part of the administration to have a constantly increasing tariff moat around the US. Trump does not speak in legalese where every statement is qualified and footnoted. In the short term the tariffs will bring in revenue. I was surprised that my hero Thomas Sowell is against the Trump tariffs. He did not speak to the issue of the tariffs already in place against US products, so I do not really understand his objection. It seems that if you are against tariffs, you would have to be in favor of the Trump tariffs since they essentially neutralize the tariffs imposed by foreign nations against the US.
8 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: Sunhan65 4/5/2025 12:25:09 PM (No. 1927400)
This article is a reasonable take. Thanks for posting, OP. Part of the problem has been President Trump's pleading in the alternative to justify this. First, it was claiming national security "emergencies" like Canadian fentanyl. That was to get him past the part where the tariff power delegated to him by Congress only allows presidents to raise tariffs to address national security emergencies. Then it was we need tariff protections to restore our industrial manufacturing base and force companies to relocate production back to the US. But as the article correctly notes, that implies tariffs remaining in place for months if not years while that relocation happens. Most recently, the USTR has released the formula used to calculate the "reciprocal" tariff rates. They're not reciprocal at all. They don't directly mirror other countries' tariff barriers. They simply divide the trade surplus a country has with us by the total amount they export to us, divide that in half as a "discount," and apply that as a percentage tariff on everything we buy from them. Here's the link: https://www.lucianne.com/2025/04/03/how_the_trump_administration_calculated_the_new_reciprocal_tariffs_148780.html There are so many problems with this, it's hard to know where to start. First, it assumes that any country that has a trade surplus with us is engaged in unfair trade practices. But the US ran trade surpluses with most of the world from 1945 to 1975. Were we cheating? Of course not, we were competing, and winning, at international trade. Second, countries always have surpluses with some countries and trade deficits with others based on what they buy and need. There is nothing unusual in that. A world where the US has no trade deficits with any country cannot exist, and it is ridiculous and dangerous to try. Having said all of that, if this leads to free and fairer trade, I'm all for it. If it leads to permanent tariff barriers as a path to prosperity, I share the article editors' doubts that that will work.
2 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: earlybird 4/5/2025 12:26:23 PM (No. 1927403)
“April 2nd, 2025, will go down as one of the most important days in modern American history.” — White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. That is the Leavitt prediction the article refers to. (And isn't she a breath of smart, fresh air after Biden's moronic PS?
6 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: NYbob 4/5/2025 12:31:03 PM (No. 1927405)
Yeah, the same experts, talking heads and economists that cheered as communities across the USA were destroyed by third world holes taking every company and factory the Mitt Romney types could send them. It is OBVIOUS that President Trump's tariffs, and economic plan is working right now, in less than 2 months. Billions and billions of new investments, factories and jobs are flowing in. A TRUE shovelready revolution that NO other President or congress or 'experts,' were able to do. All they did and do is blab nonsense that a dishonest, evil media report as some weird fact.
4 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: rushie 4/5/2025 12:50:23 PM (No. 1927418)
Smoot - Hawley was a different time. I dont think we were as strong in the world as we are now. I trust President Trtump.
6 people like this.

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