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La Nina weather 60% likely to develop
from June-August, says US forecaster

Original Article

Posted By: FormerDem, 8/24/2024 11:50:55 AM

(Reuters) - A U.S. government weather forecaster expects an about 60% chance of the La Nina weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean emerging in the second half of 2024. There is an 85% chance that a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely to occur by April-June, National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast on Thursday. "The end of El Nino would take away the vertical wind shear that tends to reduce the number of storms in the Atlantic basin. Further, warm ocean temperatures should facilitate the formation of stronger storms," Citi Research said in a note.

Comments:

Proud to tell you I forecast this year's La Nina, also the El Nino of 2015, in a poster at American Geophysical Union, and at Am Met Soc in 2017 and 2023. And per me, itis going to last for several years and be a big one.... In 1980 my father at NASA suggested in Nature that the Earth might have its own ring system, though (later paper) it would be a fat low contrast one and hard to see. It was ignored bc it requires lunar geologic activity which few believed in in 1980 though he did. Being in possession of a useful doctorate and relevant work experience, I later decided to chase this down, true or not true, find out... . I found it is a reasonable idea, not proven but the counterarguments are not decisive, and it might explain droughts. I set out to forecast weather on this hypothesis. I have had these two gigantic successes. It is still not proven, but I am still at work... May I inform that a ring system if there is one, can also do some dramatic and scary things, so if fire rains down from the sky one day, know that is one of the things that can happen.... It might seem as though the sky were falling. Let's all learn to pray.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Axeman 8/24/2024 12:23:49 PM (No. 1784213)
The cubic miles of water blown into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga eruption have not precipitated out yet. The butterfly effect from that will cause a lot of random (I mean, weather is very chaotic anyway, but more random) changes for years to come. Good luck with any predictions, and screw the models.
13 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Avikingman 8/24/2024 12:34:48 PM (No. 1784219)
Original article published April 11, 2024. FWIW I'm with Hunga Tonga et. al.
12 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Nimby 8/24/2024 1:24:02 PM (No. 1784259)
Old news from April 2024
3 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Maggie2u 8/24/2024 2:16:36 PM (No. 1784287)
Well, if the weather in Seattle and Wa state for this past 10 days is anything to go by, this winter is going to be a heck of a cold one. It's been raining and COLD for the past week, last Saturday was a day of thunder and lightening. Very unusual for August, because August and September are usually our warmest days.
3 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: cjjeepercreeper 8/24/2024 3:42:17 PM (No. 1784320)
Talk about a stale article.
3 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Starboard_side 8/24/2024 4:25:44 PM (No. 1784343)
Despite being an old article, i find these very telling about how little they actually know based on all of the qualifier words used. Words like should, likely, The site that tracks these two weather patterns is now saying the warmer summer has delayed the start of La Nina. And, it's all predicated on a consensus of the models. Remember, they didn't predict the past 2 years of excessive rain in the Western states which essentially resolved the drought conditions and allowed underground aquafers and reservoirs to fill up to 100%.
3 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: chumley 8/24/2024 5:04:15 PM (No. 1784372)
In the early 2000s we used to laugh about how every breeze and every drop of rain was blamed on El Nino or La Nina. That was before the catch all of global warming got stylish. Now I see the old stuff is back.
5 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: DVC 8/24/2024 5:56:15 PM (No. 1784390)
Hmmm. June - August is about 90 days. So, "predicting" the weather when most of June- August is behind us is not much predicting, 7/90 = 0.077, 92% of the weather is behind us. Not much prediction.
2 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: FlaDiver74 8/24/2024 8:00:12 PM (No. 1784431)
Volcanoes have consequences. Atlantic has cooled recently, baffling clueless climate scientist.
3 people like this.

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