An Earth Day reckoning?
Greenies panicking over
the discrediting of computer models
predicting disaster
American Thinker,
by
Thomas Lifson
Original Article
Posted By: Magnante,
4/20/2020 8:05:14 AM
We have learned the hard way that the scientists who produce mathematical models predicting disaster are not to be granted the presumption of infallibility. Nor are their demands that we impoverish ourselves in order to avert a disaster a matter of “settled science.” The Coronavirus doom that the Cassandras of prestigious scientific organs predicted is nowhere to be found, and it turns out that models are based on assumptions, and can be spectacularly wrong.
Americans have sacrificed trillions of dollars and turned our lives upside down based on predictions of millions of deaths
Reply 1 - Posted by:
bpl40 4/20/2020 8:25:10 AM (No. 385200)
The rogue's list of publications that are going along with this nonsense should be a good indicator for the uninitiated on who and what to believe in the future.
7 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
HotRod 4/20/2020 9:13:47 AM (No. 385256)
Models share the same fault as statistics. They can be manipulated to show whatever you want. In fact, models use statistics, chosen by the modeler, who may manipulate them or use them out of context, or may receive them already corrupt!
When evaluating a statement or declaration made by someone, either verbally or using a model, always consider their agenda. That will put those things in context.
5 people like this.
The Greenies have largely won their victory. How many here, for example, separate recycling from trash? Does anyone still pour used motor oil down a sewer grate anymore? And how rare is it to see those windmills churning clean, sustainable electricity? Prius owner, anyone? Over decades these accumulations are not only subtle, but now an common, unremarkable way of life.
Talk to any kid educated over the past 30 years...get their views of saving and protecting the environment. There is the real Greenie victory.
4 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Kate318 4/20/2020 10:03:56 AM (No. 385343)
If anything good comes out if this whole mess, I hope it includes a massive distrust of computer models. The rabid will still cling to them, but perhaps some will begin to peel off.
5 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
padiva 4/20/2020 10:11:44 AM (No. 385356)
Ahhh, the serendipity of Covid-19! (You can lead a liberal to the facts but you can't make them think.)
But the new question is: do the old green computer models go in the trash or the recycling? /s
5 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
franq 4/20/2020 10:13:24 AM (No. 385357)
#3 makes a point. I never poured used oil down a sewer grate, though. Drew the line at washing out ketchup bottles. It's a well known fact that a lot of recycling trucks drive to the same landfill as their "garbage" counterparts.
5 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
Terry_tr6 4/20/2020 11:09:30 AM (No. 385456)
the problem is early goals are often good, like providing a way to dispose of used oil and getting lead out of gasoline(though the solution can cause it's own problems). I for one remember lead fouled spark plugs and love cars that get really good MPG and last 200.000 miles + without needing engine rebuilds. The problem is when we get 90% of the problem corrected, the organizations that drove that cannot declare victory and go away. Instead they now focus on the remaining 10% like it is as critical to solve as the first 90%. unfortunately fixing 90%of that 10% costs as much as the first 90%. and fixing 90% of the remaining 1% costs as much as the last 9%. but the organizations don't care about diminishing returns only about their survival and need for relevance and power. So money and effort better spent or never appropriated(think taken at gun point) get wasted on goals each causing unintended consequences(lighter cars/increased accident fatalities).
3 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
DVC 4/20/2020 11:09:37 AM (No. 385457)
More and more people discovering that a lot of computer models are pure mule manure, cannot predict anything accurately.
Bundle up the "climate models" with the "pandemic models", slosh on some kerosene and have a bonfire.
5 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 4/20/2020 11:37:54 AM (No. 385507)
Here's the question to ask:
Given the failure of the computer models to project the actual path of COVID-19 and the damage done to the American People by trying to respond to the broken models through shutting down the economy even though it was a short period of time, should we risk decades of economic constriction based on models of climate claiming threats that show no signs of being anymore accurate than the COVID - 19 models?
A month of shutdown is crippling us, destroying some individuals. The models used to cajole us into it were wrong by a couple orders of magnitude. If the climate models are wrong by the same amounts, a 5 degree projected increase in temperature could be only .05 degrees, effectively nothing. We could spend decades in privation before knowing it was all for naught. We need more than computer model to make this leap.
5 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
DVC 4/20/2020 1:06:40 PM (No. 385652)
#9, I built models for a living for almost 40 years. I can guarantee that the climate models are just as unreliable as the pandemic models....that is to say, the equations are oversimplified and ignore lots of important things, and the input coefficients in those equations are totally unmeasurable, so ALL of them are estimated (guess-timated, actually).
The end result is garbage. Very inaccurate. Several of them have been tried by starting with the known weather and human gas output conditions of a century ago to see if they would 'predict' our current conditions. OOPS. They don't work without lots of tweaking, which basically means fudging the results when you know the answer, cheating the results to fit.
Climate models are garbage. Always have been, always will be.
3 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
NYbob 4/20/2020 2:24:13 PM (No. 385722)
Purposely putting difficult or toxic waste products into the sewage system isn't a rebel move, it's a lazy move. You don't have to be a vegan to be responsible about needless destruction. If everyone was a slob, we would be living in just another third world mess. Check out Asia if you want to see what happens when no one bothers to think about any systems for treating waste products, other than open burns.
2 people like this.
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