Huge! Official IMHE Model for Coronavirus
Used by CDC Just Cut Their Numbers by
Half!... They're Making It Up As they
Go Along!
Gateway Pundit,
by
Jim Hoft
Original Article
Posted By: Imright,
4/6/2020 12:20:04 PM
This is quite stunning.The government models used to predict the extent of the coronavirus pandemic are off by huge margins in the latest coronavirus tracking numbers.The government predictions reported by the IMHE Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/ ) for Apr 5th were as follows:– All beds needed: 179,267
– ICU beds needed: 33,176 – Invasive ventilators: 26,544
Reply 1 - Posted by:
Plex 4/6/2020 12:23:09 PM (No. 370499)
I believe they also changed to a bell curve, not log
6 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
pinger 4/6/2020 12:30:05 PM (No. 370508)
I think is falls under "damned if you do, damned if you don't. Had the numbers been underestimated by these percentages the detractors would be called for the number-crunchers to be hung from the highest tree.
14 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
MMC 4/6/2020 12:30:35 PM (No. 370509)
There is going to be a second wave of flu in September/October..so as to disrupt the voting.. be in guard.. this was goal of panic and chaos.. sheep give up freedom in fear..
35 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Urgent Fury 4/6/2020 12:36:40 PM (No. 370514)
Be advised....the RATS and their whores in the media have NO INTEREST in this crisis ending any time soon.
47 people like this.
The numbers are still too high, and will have to be adjusted again soon enough.
This type of modeling is along the same lines as the modeling you got from "climate change experts".
Garbage data in, garbage results out.
In IT, it's simply referred to as GIGO.
When your starting data is from a country that outright lies about nearly everything, then don't expect to get something actually useful from the analysis.
35 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
DVC 4/6/2020 12:38:23 PM (No. 370517)
The isolation and distancing is working, this is exactly what it is intended to accomplish. Shouldn't be surprised that it works.
16 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
bassman 4/6/2020 12:49:27 PM (No. 370533)
Are the "experts" coming up with these models the same ones that predict climate change?
24 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
planetgeo 4/6/2020 12:51:53 PM (No. 370537)
Biggest. Manipulated. Medical. Panic. EVER!
Some people should be fired. And some should be hanged.
48 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Thegranddanny 4/6/2020 12:52:12 PM (No. 370539)
Repeat after me: " Your model is not reality...Your model is not reality."
16 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Avanti1 4/6/2020 12:54:40 PM (No. 370542)
The revised numbers reflect current knowledge. Expect the numbers to be further revised as more is learned and as the effects of social distancing, more testing and new drug effects are seen.
There are two alternatives:
1. Simply admit that accurate numbers are not available and provide no projections at all
2. Provide projections based on what is currently known and revise as more is learned
Take your pick.
10 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
snapper451 4/6/2020 12:56:38 PM (No. 370547)
Worked in pharma my whole career. If we gave management numbers like this we would have been out the door. We would forecast a minor $10 million/year product for the manufacturing people monthly and the boss would bust chops if we leveled the sales by month to the average of 12 months. I went to the manufacturing guy and asked him and he said "we never look at your numbers, we just make what you need once a year...". Some people dwell on numbers too much but anyone could tell these were inflated. When you have 7,000 deaths on the weekend, you will never get to 100,000 + deaths (thankfully) in the U.S.
14 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
Ketchuplover 4/6/2020 12:57:02 PM (No. 370549)
The larger the need that is projected, the more money can come into the state coffers.....to help bail out their bloated pension and other spending excesses.
18 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
GoodDeal 4/6/2020 12:57:20 PM (No. 370550)
All experts have their critics.
2 people like this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
MickTurn 4/6/2020 1:06:22 PM (No. 370564)
Statistics definition: What do YOU want it to say, Bureaucrat?
A company was hiring a head of accounting. After 25 applicants were interviewed the last person, a seasoned citizen went in for his interview. The CEO tossed a large report at him and said, "Tell me what that says"...to which the applicant said after not touching the report, "What do you want it to say", the response was, "You're Hired"...
14 people like this.
it's looking like they are trending to get everyone vaccinated before they let us go back to work.
This YouTuber had the virus and barely made it back. He lost his brother to it. Wonder who owns the patent to the vaccine? Hint: He just resigned as CEO to Microsoft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDXUlvPSYMc
3 people like this.
Reply 16 - Posted by:
oldmagnolia 4/6/2020 1:24:20 PM (No. 370606)
This is war people. We have two fronts. One is the virus. The other one is the left and globalists trying to destroy the country and Trump to take over. The second front is more dangerous than the virus. Get ready.
17 people like this.
Who to believe?
Chi-com’s?
Deep state operatives?
The “news”?
Holy flu soup, Batman!
5 people like this.
Reply 18 - Posted by:
MissGrits 4/6/2020 1:28:58 PM (No. 370618)
Trump needs to end this fiasco ... and use the CDC, the “science” numbers to do it!
9 people like this.
Keep in mind, the people who are getting tested are showing signs, and being sent by a doctor to the testing location, thus, it only stands to reason the numbers would increase on those testing positive.
Yet, the numbers aren't showing a massive number of seriously ill, those needing ICU type treatment, they had originally projected, which should be seen as very good news.
6 people like this.
Reply 20 - Posted by:
LadyHen 4/6/2020 1:44:37 PM (No. 370638)
As I said yesterday, the experts have nothing to lose by crashing the economy and bringing this nation to it's knees. No accountability for these career bureaucrats.
If the numbers come in on target or higher, they can simply say "Look, we told you so!"
If the numbers come in below their projections, they can say "See, all this stuff we told you to do is working!"
So we can't shop for groceries or even get our meds this week?! What next week, not even go out in our own yards and breath fresh air and enjoy sunshine, two of the most healing forces in nature?! They are clueless!!
I'm done with the whole lot of power hungry pretenders!!
11 people like this.
Reply 21 - Posted by:
EJKrausJr 4/6/2020 2:01:48 PM (No. 370653)
Just like the climate change models. If you feed algorithms junk data, you get junk results. Not really surprised.
8 people like this.
Reply 22 - Posted by:
Axeman 4/6/2020 2:17:02 PM (No. 370671)
Numbers, blatantly wrong from the beginning, being revised downward again.
Surprised?
Anyone?
4 people like this.
Reply 23 - Posted by:
lakerman1 4/6/2020 2:42:55 PM (No. 370697)
#21, the difference with the climate change models is that when you apply the numbers used, working backwards, the models should predict the current climate status, and they don't.
7 people like this.
Reply 24 - Posted by:
geoguy 4/6/2020 3:12:35 PM (No. 370721)
Look at the results of this "predictive" model for the corona virus. Fifty percent error. Now think about the predictive models that are being used to determine climate change over the next 100 years which I would assume have many more variables (and many they don't even know or ignore) that are less well understood. That should pretty much tell you what you need to know about climate change predictions.
5 people like this.
Reply 25 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 4/6/2020 3:45:44 PM (No. 370740)
What makes the low numbers model correct? Because it agrees with your viewpoint?
I am highly doubtful of the doomsday model numbers. I don't think we will get anywhere near 100,000 deaths. Extrapolating Italy's numbers, the worst so far, up for population gets us to 112,000. Why would we be as bad as Italy with an older population and a direct injection of Chinese visitors?
We need more testing and faster testing. Then we will know who can safely go back to work and isolate those infected.
3 people like this.
Reply 26 - Posted by:
DVC 4/6/2020 4:06:45 PM (No. 370754)
So many tinfoil hats on too tight these days.
2 people like this.
Reply 27 - Posted by:
anniebc 4/6/2020 4:26:07 PM (No. 370778)
These numbers are like obama's unemployment numbers. Remember those?
1 person likes this.
Oh, stop it...all these numbers are "made up", beginning with the Chinese and right through all those governments and government agencies that you wouldn't trust six weeks ago to give you the correct time. NOW they're trustworthy? Really!?
There are trillions of dollars for the taking, from research grants to government cheese checks. The US Hospital Association asked for $100 BILLION "to front line health care personnel and providers and “direct the federal agencies to begin to infuse funds immediately so that they can afford to take the necessary steps to fight” the novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19)." And the hysterical, of course, were happy to support such nonsense.
Flatten the curve; fatten the bottom line.
2 people like this.
Reply 29 - Posted by:
Lawsy0 4/6/2020 5:28:42 PM (No. 370829)
I would not believe the next MODEL number if the report appeared on top of a stack of Bibles.
1 person likes this.
Reply 30 - Posted by:
MickTurn 4/6/2020 5:29:57 PM (No. 370830)
In the back room at the CDC Management has a Dart Board...guess how they come up with their numbers?
1 person likes this.
Reply 31 - Posted by:
EQKimball 4/6/2020 6:10:59 PM (No. 370851)
Of course the computer models exaggerated wildly. Look who is building in the assumptions. They are the academic associates of those who want to create a panic about climate change, about whose future we have heard fantastic predictions of the coming--horror--year 2015, when there was supposed to be an ice-free arctic, the end of snow, hyper-storms of historic destruction, acidic lakes and streams, the extinction of polar bears, a growing hole in the ozone layer over the south pole (now at its smallest size ever), silent springs, a population bomb leading to continental famine, etc. Doomsday is always just ahead, but the good news is that it can be prevented if we put them in charge. So, too, with the virus. Centralize the government or die. Meanwhile, hide under our beds and take our meds, all purchased from China.
3 people like this.
Reply 32 - Posted by:
joew9 4/6/2020 9:42:00 PM (No. 371001)
The best thing you can do is create a model and use it to make predictions.
The worst thing you can do is not modify the model as time reveals better data.
They're modifying the model. Good. They're doing the right thing.
OTOH, the climate change people don't change their model when their predictions don't come true.
2 people like this.
Reply 33 - Posted by:
Periwinkel 4/7/2020 8:36:54 AM (No. 371290)
These must be the same guys who decide what kind of flu shots we get every year. What a bunch of egg-headed dolts. Seldom right, but never in doubt.
2 people like this.
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