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Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M,
unemployment rate may surge to 32%,
St. Louis Fed says

Original Article

Posted By: AltaD, 3/31/2020 9:27:51 AM

Tens of millions of Americans will likely lose their jobs as the coronavirus pandemic sends the U.S. economy into a free fall, causing the unemployment rate to surge to levels not seen since the Great Depression, according to a St. Louis Federal Reserve estimate. The analysis, posted by St. Louis Fed economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro, projected that unemployment could hit 32 percent in the second quarter as more than 47 million workers are laid off as a result of the pandemic, which has forced swaths of the economy to shut down. That would exceed the 24.9 percent peak during the Great Depression.(Snip)The picture already looks grim: Jobless claims

Comments:

Was this China's goal?

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Bur Oak 3/31/2020 9:34:13 AM (No. 363759)
Why are government workers intentionally trying to scare the populace? My guess is that they are wanting to obtain more control and power over other Americans.
16 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: HotRod 3/31/2020 9:47:39 AM (No. 363775)
The job losses won't be from the China virus. It would be from government mandates and media hype!
22 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: RuckusTom 3/31/2020 9:48:40 AM (No. 363777)
Pretty simple. President Trump implemented trade policies favorable to the US. China didn't like that. The democrats failed at getting President Trump removed from office, so China stepped up to the plate by unleashing a virus destroying the US economy ... just before the November elections. President Trump has shaken the apple cart and they (China, the democrats and RINOs) don't like it because there are trillions at stake, and they'll do anything they can to get rid of Orange Man Bad.
22 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: mobyclik 3/31/2020 10:29:04 AM (No. 363833)
And who is Miguel Faria-e-Castro?
4 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: offrope 3/31/2020 10:31:09 AM (No. 363836)
....could....may.....might.....possibly....
6 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: kono 3/31/2020 10:54:33 AM (No. 363878)
This unemployment is not an organic outcome of natural economic dynamics, but artificially created through a strategic overreaction to a peculiarly nasty flu. The impact of the illness is going to be catastrophic, no matter what we do about it. Forcing half the economy to an extended halt will likely be worse for society than letting the virus take its course. Kind of like decades of suppressing all wildfires let the fuel build up so much that those annual fire seasons no longer enhance the health of the biosphere, but threaten its survival.
10 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: ssholland 3/31/2020 11:05:15 AM (No. 363900)
Either massive numbers of people will die or not. If not, Trump will have to take responsibility for causing millions unemployed for a virus which appears to be slightly more potent than the flu. He will have to answer as to why he ignored the low mortality rate and instead decided to listen to people who are more concerned about protecting their careers and reputations. These next two weeks will be the make or break point. The daily mortality figures for the US should start to double about every 1-2 days in order to reach the 200,000 mark predicted (revised downward). In fact, Dr. Fauci has now lowered his forecast, again. Now, he says the death toll from COVID-19 may reach 100,000. This is far below the original estimate of 2.2 million, and is half of the two days previous estimate of 200,000. Even 100,000 is a lot, however, given that a bad flu season can reach 60,000 or more, is shutting down the economy for COVID-19 really a reasonable and prudent step in the first place? If the numbers do not reach near these marks, we will know the whole thing was a sham perpetrated by first the Democrats, then the medical professionals. Trump has already lied about the reason the numbers are lower than originally predicted. Trump stated yesterday the numbers were revised downward BECAUSE of the quarantine. However, both Drs. Birx and Fauci are on record as saying the reason for the quarantine was to reduce the spike, aka “flatten the curve”, and was not in any way going to affect the total number of infections. The reason for the lower estimated mortality rate is because the numbers are not matching the forecasts, so the “experts” have had to change their dire predictions midstream and hope no one will notice their sleight of hand. In fact, the total number of infected was going to be the same either way with or without the quarantine. Instead of easing up on the quarantine yesterday, Trump doubled down. Will 47 million unemployed be worth it?
1 person likes this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: qr4j 3/31/2020 11:06:28 AM (No. 363901)
Realism is fine. But pessimism is so unhelpful. I think we need to put our hands to the plow and keep looking ahead. That's the only way to keep the rows straight. I'm from Illinois. We know cornfields!
5 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: ARKfamily 3/31/2020 11:26:34 AM (No. 363924)
I call bogus on #6. Your reasoning is suspect and almost incoherent. So why on earth would Donald Trump shoot himself in the foot for?
2 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: ARKfamily 3/31/2020 11:27:20 AM (No. 363925)
Excuse me I meant #7 and not #6. My apologies to #6. I still call bogus on #7.
1 person likes this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: planetgeo 3/31/2020 11:29:57 AM (No. 363931)
Put this into perspective with the latest stats on the virus in the U.S. Based on yesterday's totals (161,807 confirmed cases, 2,978 deaths) AND the new news that over 1,000,000 have been tested, we now know the following: Rate of contagion/infection: about 16% (i.e., about 84% NOT even infected) Death rate per million population: about 0.3% Death rate if infected: 1.8% Question: do these numbers justify the complete shut down of this country, with tens of millions out of work and the economy ruined?
5 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: bpl40 3/31/2020 11:36:27 AM (No. 363936)
The 47 million 'unemployed' will have on the flip side 47 million vacated jobs ready to come back on line when things are normal. This not standard unemployment. People who send out such information should clarify that. Otherwise it just politically motivated fear mongering.
1 person likes this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: DVC 3/31/2020 11:43:29 AM (No. 363948)
Or not.
1 person likes this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: Alecto2 3/31/2020 11:45:46 AM (No. 363952)
We are in the middle of a "pissing" contest between Imperial College London and University of Oxford. Ferguson at Imperial came out with insane numbers initially and the extreme leftists and incompetents at the CDC ran with them. Rather than being subjected to a biological attack we are being subjected to economic warfare.
2 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: unagator 3/31/2020 11:55:56 AM (No. 363962)
It's literally making me sick thinking about the class of 2020 graduating not only with no jobs, but with degrees in careers that no longer exist. What have we done? We've voluntarily sacrificed a youngest generation to potentially save the oldest one.
1 person likes this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: NorthernDog 3/31/2020 11:59:58 AM (No. 363969)
None of this makes sense. WalMart and Target are open and operating as if nothing is happening - besides a few signs requesting social distancing. Restaurants doing take-outs have people inside working cheek-to-jowl as usual. Few are wearing masks or gloves. People driving around delivering take out meals are meeting dozens of different people on their route. No one seems to notice the massive inconsistencies.
5 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: Strike3 3/31/2020 12:26:37 PM (No. 363995)
Like I'm going to believe something put out by a guy named Castro.
0 people like this.

Reply 18 - Posted by: JackBurton 3/31/2020 12:29:57 PM (No. 364001)
Now that it has been disclosed that people will get enhanced unemployment benefits... ...there's a rush to be 'unemployed.' Gee, who'da thunk it?
1 person likes this.

Reply 19 - Posted by: JackBurton 3/31/2020 12:33:48 PM (No. 364008)
Oh, and the short form of comment #7 is this: Damned if you do. Damned if you don't. I'm pretty sure that if the cure were delivered on a silver platter, someone would complain about the lack of fine linen napkins and whipped cream topping.
5 people like this.

Reply 20 - Posted by: whyyeseyec 3/31/2020 1:58:25 PM (No. 364123)
Remember 10 years ago when oil prices spiked and the JunkMedia told us $200/barrel oil was the new norm? How'd that work out? This too shall pass.
2 people like this.

Reply 21 - Posted by: red1066 3/31/2020 3:23:23 PM (No. 364191)
What surprises me is all the name/famous people coming down with virus. Right now, there are about 170,000 people in the U.S. who we know who have been diagnosed with this virus. This out of a population of over 320 million. More people have tested negative for this virus then have tested positive. Yet, every time one turns around, some person with a little bit of fame has coronavirus. None of these numbers add up to me.
1 person likes this.

Reply 22 - Posted by: navydadsquared 3/31/2020 4:33:11 PM (No. 364242)
I know a number of people who own small businesses. They are not so sure, given the ever increasing shut down dates, that they will be able to re-open. So don't be so sure the unemployment disaster is temporary.
3 people like this.

Reply 23 - Posted by: kono 3/31/2020 5:30:59 PM (No. 364293)
#12 apparently assumes the companies with those jobs don't fail from the extended absence of revenues during their mandatory shutdowns. Need for rent and repairs doesn't vanish, just because the customers aren't coming in any more and the workers were furloughed or laid off. While a lot of things are uncertain right now, one thing that IS fairly certain is that the world's economy will take some time to recover -- and its patterns of prosperity will probably look a bit different. (There will be winners and losers in this. I suspect, for example, that Sweden will enjoy some advantage from pushing through the pandemic instead of inducing an economic coma by shutting down everything that the party in power has deemed 'nonessential'.)
1 person likes this.

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