A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus
pandemic takes hold, we are making
decisions without reliable data
STAT,
by
John P.A. Ioannidis
Original Article
Posted By: earlybird,
3/18/2020 11:13:07 AM
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns
Reply 1 - Posted by:
Calamity Kate 3/18/2020 11:18:26 AM (No. 349918)
THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS!!!!!!!!! I can't wait to find out what is REALLY driving this panic! Peak ridiculous!
7 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
Thos Weatherby 3/18/2020 11:31:14 AM (No. 349928)
It's the media #1 These are numbers from about a week ago.
Trump
COVID19
US cases 1329
US deaths 38
Panic
Obama
H1N1
US cases 61 million
US deaths 12,459
No panic
This is how the media is manipulating and controlling peoples lives.
19 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
HotRod 3/18/2020 11:49:22 AM (No. 349953)
Is a fiasco worse than a panic or pandemic? This sounds like more news-making to me. If there is reliable data, we will have/get it. The unreliable stuff is in the media!
0 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 3/18/2020 12:19:47 PM (No. 349985)
Sorry, in situations like this, you rarely have reliable data. The data approaches reliability toward the end of the event, too late to be useful. All the data can tell us now is that the virus is pretty transmittable and the elderly and those with existing health problems are primarily at risk.
The response is being tailored to what we DO know, the general control of infectious disease. The primary issue is slowing the spread of the disease and managing treatment for the severely ill. Social distancing and maintaining sanitary conditions are common methods for slowing transmission. We are ramping up production and distribution of health supplies and testing. Too draconian? Want to be like Italy? We don't have enough reliable information to fine tune our response so we error on the side of caution. It's easy for some to say they are not at significant risk so they should be free to travel, etc. Would they be so cavalier if their parents were at direct risk of serious or fatal illness from their actions?
Yeah, hoarding TP is silly. Panicky people do silly things. Is there a reason to panic? Not really. To be concerned and careful? Oh YEAH! I have a friend in her 60's who went on a trip and came back with the virus. She probably thought the concern was being overblown or that she was not at risk. Oops. Now I hope she will be OK. I'm very glad I haven't bumped into her since she came back.
This is real and the threat is unpredictable and invisible, making it all the more dangerous. If the virus turned exposed people neon green, this would be a lot easier.
4 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
Historybuff 3/18/2020 1:09:40 PM (No. 350043)
Here are some real numbers: (source https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html )
Total WORLD WIDE 207,518
RECOVERED 82104
result: 125,414
Deaths - 8248
Total = 117,166
Numbers sure to go up because of more testing, but that is because we are testing more and my theory is that there are plenty walking around who don't know they have it because they have no symptoms.
I don't wish any harm on them, but Tom Hanks, Idris Elba, and Mrs. Trudeu, will show the world you can and will recover from this unless you have something underling or are old.
1 person likes this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
DVC 3/18/2020 1:24:34 PM (No. 350052)
Yes, we do not have reliable data. Wait for it and how many hundreds of thousands have to die?
Make some reasonable moves, based on best expectations. And STOP THROWING MONEY AROUND.
2 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
worried 3/18/2020 1:48:33 PM (No. 350084)
Right now President Trump is making all the reasonable moves, but he is hampered by his enemies in congress and the media. Most of the media refuse to acknowledge the progress being made against the virus. Yet they turned a blind eye to Obama's mishandling of the H1N1 fiasco.
6 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
anniebc 3/18/2020 5:02:18 PM (No. 350228)
So, when does this end? When someone says it's over?
2 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
caljeepgirl 3/18/2020 5:44:42 PM (No. 350283)
Yes, "we are making decisions without reliable data" because we have no other choice. When you have many infected people with no, or no obvious, symptoms, you're just not going to get sufficient stats.
Case in point: my oldest son (who's single & consistently super healthy) made a weekend trip down to SF from his home in Reno around mid-February. The day or so after he returned home, sudden feeling 'crappy' and went to bed early with definite 'chills'; thereafter, spent about a week with fairly traditional chesty cold symptoms. He was unemployed at the time, so was pretty much confined to his house, anyway. He didn't own a thermometer, but we're fairly convinced he was an early COVID-19 victim.
0 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Strike3 3/19/2020 11:33:12 AM (No. 350959)
Decisions are being made based on best available information. We will not know exact details until this thing is over and then they can crunch the numbers. Did we know how many soldiers Hitler had and exactly where they were when we landed at Bastogne and Normandy? Hell no, but we beat them.
0 people like this.
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John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.
Posted with permission of LCom Staff