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Under-the-radar trend suggests the US
may avoid a recession during the
coronavirus crisis

Original Article

Posted By: ladydawgfan, 3/15/2020 9:52:15 PM

Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan is seeing an encouraging market pattern that indicates the economy may avoid a recession. He boils it down in a chart of how commodity prices are doing. [Graphic] The red line shows easy to speculate commodities, which includes oil and copper. The blue line follows hard to speculate groups such as rubber, benzene and some textiles. Achuthan, who’s co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, contends both groups would be falling simultaneously during an economic downturn. However, the only drop he’s seeing is in very speculative commodities. It suggests, according to Achuthan,

Comments:

A bit of hopeful news, perhaps??

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Reply 1 - Posted by: pinger 3/15/2020 10:22:31 PM (No. 347587)
Oh oh. This will be fingernails on the blackboard to Democrats...
8 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: bythegates 3/15/2020 10:30:15 PM (No. 347596)
Have not sold anything. Betting everything on a pre-election market explosion as corovirus becomes an ant hill thanks to POTUS' fast actions to stop travel from affected areas.
11 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: caljeepgirl 3/15/2020 10:32:03 PM (No. 347599)
Awesome. Guess all those toilet paper sales are going to keep our country afloat, after all!
4 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Timber Queen 3/15/2020 10:34:40 PM (No. 347603)
Over the last three years President Trump has remade the US economy. His tax and regulation cuts, as well as becoming energy independent, has give us the cushion we need to absorb any short-term economic difficulties. When the hunkering down is over, the pent-up activity will rebound faster than the super balls of yore.
9 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: texaspast 3/15/2020 10:42:34 PM (No. 347606)
To CNBC, this is bad news.
6 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Sandbar 3/15/2020 11:06:06 PM (No. 347616)
0% interest rates and cheap energy along with a springtime break from this virus may fuel an explosion of the economy. The longer term benefit of this may be that we bring production of essentials back home. With low interest rates companies can invest the money to retool or build new facilities here at home. It's time to quit planting our trees in our adversary's orchard.
10 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Dodge Boy 3/16/2020 12:14:29 AM (No. 347638)
Interesting perspective. For now, the key is for the central banks to keep firm control of the financial system. This will mean negative interest rates soon. Some Zombie company will probably fail and it was a matter of time, anyway. However, my expectation is that the lessons learned from the 2008 financial downturn will help us. I think our economic system is sufficiently robust and adaptable and so is our North American supply chain. The President was extremely wise to bring some manufacturing jobs back to America. Achieving oil & gas independence was a critical accomplishment. No question about it. More to come though because this current crisis will expose some new weaknesses that need to be fixed. Over-dependence on Chinese goods, for example. Will be interesting to see if health care which has Obie's and the dims' name on it fails through the crisis. Unemployment will need to remain low throughout the crisis.
6 people like this.

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