The Coronavirus Numbers Are Not Quite
What They Seem
American Greatness,
by
Edward Ring
Original Article
Posted By: earlybird,
3/2/2020 12:25:23 PM
Fractions are taught in elementary school, but adults sometimes still manage to misunderstand how they work in everyday life.(Snip)
Dr. Anthony Fauci(Snip)emphasized that the chance of becoming infected remains low and that the majority of those who contract the virus—75 to 80 percent—will experience it like a “bad flu or a cold.” The other 15 to 20 percent, he said, may need “advanced medical care.”
(Snip)Some of the “if it bleeds, it leads” media immediately jumped on the 15 to 20 percent figure, multiplied it by the entire U.S. population of about 330 million, and concluded that we might need 50-60 million hospital beds, for which we are unprepared.
The left is clearly hyping and inflating this "crisis" as the latest thing that will work against Trump. They see the stock market react, and think that they can fan the flames and cause a real recession, which might lead to Trump losing in November.
They are disgusting. They would gladly see the economy take a hit, even with all the hardship that would cause, if it results in Trump being removed.
7 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
DVC 3/2/2020 12:53:43 PM (No. 334489)
Good points to remember. Those with the higher risk factors, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and obesity are at higher risk.
And it is guraranteed that the denominator of the fraction is artificially low since there are certainly large numbers of COVID-19 cases which are not made known to medical statisticians because they are indistinguishable from a common cold or flu. Easy to guess that the 2% death rate is almost certainly way too high. Still, a 1% death rate in the KC metro area of about 1,000,000 people would work out to 10,000 deaths in the KC area alone. In NYC, 8 million the last I heard, that is 80,000 dead. If that happened over a year, it would be 6,667 per month.
At this point, all is speculation. China has hideously polluted air, probably meaning more damaged lungs, and therefore more deaths because lung damage is a nearly universal pre-existing condition there. And medical care is medieval. Both mean that the numerator will be artificially high compared to the USA.
Artificially high numerator, artificially low denominator......almost a certainty that the actual death rate in the USA will be well below 2%. Does that mean 1% or 0.1%? No way of knowing until the event is well under way, unfortunately.
The one certainty is that the Enemedia will continue use it as a bludgeon to beat up President Trump. Guaranteed.
Sound horrific.....until you remember that 8,000 die each month NOW from the common flu, although that is nationwide, not in one metro area.
9 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
Delilah 3/2/2020 12:57:12 PM (No. 334494)
Hundreds are dying today from the common flu but the media could not care less. I don't think most people are as afraid of the coronavirus as the media assumes. I attended a church lunch Sunday and never heard one person mention it even though the minister made a reference to it in his sermon and cautioned not to shake hands.
3 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Highlander 3/2/2020 1:18:23 PM (No. 334508)
No math like liberal math to foment panic among the ignorant masses.
3 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
Plex 3/2/2020 1:27:42 PM (No. 334515)
#2, It seems odd to assume that the entire population of KC would become infected with the virus.
5 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
Pook60 3/2/2020 1:32:22 PM (No. 334518)
The death rate of 2% has nothing to do with population numbers. It is 2% of the people who are infected. You have to estimate the rate of infection to start extrapolating death numbers based on the population of cities.
8 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
earlybird 3/2/2020 1:37:11 PM (No. 334520)
The death rate percentageshould be based upon the number of confirmed cases, not the entire population of a city, state or country. That is what Ring is trying to tell us.
2 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
oldmagnolia 3/2/2020 1:51:26 PM (No. 334538)
The Coronavirus numbers are not what the enemedia and the demRats wants. There, I fix the title.
2 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Mass Minority 3/2/2020 2:08:52 PM (No. 334565)
#2 and others, The numbers are most definitely misleading. The CDC uses a well validated mathematical algorithm to estimate both the total number of flu infections as well as flu related deaths in the US each year. This algorithm estimates the number of both unreported flu cases (those who just tough it out at home rather than rush the ER or the Dr office.) as well as the number of deaths (because a lot of flu related deaths are not reported as such, like an elderly man with heart disease gets the flu and the stress causes a fatal heart attack). This algorithm has taken decades to refine and can be considered precise enough to compare year to year flu mortality rates in the US. This is where the
1 person likes this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
DVC 3/2/2020 2:25:29 PM (No. 334584)
Yes, you are right, #5, that was the worst possible scenario. Almost all realistic scenarios are for far fewer deaths. Certainly not 100% of the population will get the disease.
1 person likes this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
Agent Orange 3/2/2020 3:07:11 PM (No. 334636)
You are more likely to be Arkinsided by Hitlery than dying from the Coronavirus. It is the left and the Chinese way to try to oust our President Trump. If you have a severe lung or breathing problems, then you might have to worry. Other than that, just wash your hands and cover your mouth if or when you cough.
MSgt USAF (ret)
0 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
DVC 3/2/2020 5:07:38 PM (No. 334731)
It is very easy to make the assumption that every person will get this disease. If you assume that, you have a hard upper bound for whatever calculation you are fiddling with.
But, in real life, the fraction of people who get this is WAY less. For, example - according to CDC numbers for this last season from Oct 2019 until the end of Jan 2020, they say that between 32 million and 45 million Americans got the flu. That is from 10% to 14% of the US population.
Consider that folks today do VERY little to not spread the flu, and very little to not get the flu. If this new virus is actually more deadly, it seems reasonable that people will be more careful on both ends and the numbers infected should be lower than the common flu. Maybe half? 5% - ish???
In any case, all is speculation at this point. I will be staying away from most gatherings, although there is a play I am thinking about seeing......large hall, but a month away. Thinking.
1 person likes this.
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