Excellent and badly needed essay. If only people will read it.

FTA:

False predictions of rare events (such as mass killings) generally outweigh true ones by a large factor—an important point to remember, especially if you wish to grant or withdraw civil liberties on the basis of such predictions.

Off topic; I expect a gallery full of Newtown parents for the State of the Union speech.

Here at last is someone talking sense. Long time fans of Theodore Dalrymple have rarely been disappointed by his writing. He is always interesting. He is usually right. And he is never dull.

There is something natural and healthy and in any case unavoidable in the human response to horrors such as Sandy Hook. Who is to blame? What caused it? How can future things like this be prevented? All necessary questions demanding attention and investigation.

Leaping to conclusions that are in almost all cases derived from strongly held preexisting convictions gives a sense of control and provides targets for otherwise unfocused helpless anger. This may give relief and feel good; it is less certain that it does good.

Journalism adds no laurels to its crown by its reckless, ideologically driven coverage of these terrible killings. Public officials, by their stubborn and inexplicable refusal to make all reliable information available as soon as possible, provide a kind of dark, dank public soil for every kind of mushroom, including some that are poisonous, to sprout and grow. False narratives are quickly formed that do not necessarily disappear when the true story is known, becoming instead part of the cultural milieu.

I believe the kid´s mother is largely responsible for what happened.She knew full well that her son had a disorder that was making him more difficult to manage as he got older.Why then would she go out and buy firearms and take him to the firing range in order to teach how to use the weapons? What did she have in mind? She´s the culprit in this case.

Based upon reports from those who were close to the Lanza family - both friends and relatives - her difficulty with Adam was fairly recent. He had been diagnosed with Asperger´s syndrome - that is not a violent disorder. That is what she would have dealt with throughout most of his life. And it does not usually lead to anger and violence.

She talked recently with friends and relatives about the changes in his demeanor. He stopped talking with her. But under current law, he could not - as a 20 year old - have been examined, treated, or committed without his consent unless he demonstrated that he was a danger to himself or others.

Let´s stop blaming the mother. All reports say that she was a warm, intelligent, very caring woman who was dealing with a son with Asperger´s. Whatever mental illness Adam ended up with was another story.

Predicting a mass murder isn´t the point. Eliminating delusional thinking is the point. We don´t say to avoid seatbelts because we can´t predict which travels in cars would have resulted in fatal accidents. We say that there is a reduced risk of fatality in an accident for those who use seatbelts. Similarly, there is reduced risk of violent behavior among the delusional who are properly treated.

Delusional thinking is neither illegal nor, so far as I am aware, conclusively linked to violence. No evidence has been released to suggest that the Sandy Hook killer was delusional, though it is possible that he was. We do not know what professional help he may or may have received. We do not know whether there were any previous episodes of violence or threatening behavior. We do not, as a matter of fact, know enough at this point to conclude with certainty that his chronic mental problems, severe as they seem to have been, were the major factor in his actions, which were from a certain point of view, chillingly rational and even understandable. The scenario has narcissistic rage and suicidal despair written all over it. It is intuitively comprehensible. It can be explained without postulating a loss of contact with reality. Indeed, it can be explained precisely by the killer´s contact with, and inability/unwillingness to deal with reality.

I definitely prefer Dalrymple´s analysis over that of Charles Krauthammer (Dr. K lost me some five or so years ago with his "professional" assessment that our President had a first rate temperment).

Anyhow, as to whether Lanza´s mother was at fault, I cannot get over the fact that she did not secure her guns in a gun safe ... (big sigh).

The one person who might be able to provide some answers is not available. His mother.

I believe she did the best she could with what she had. A shy, quiet, briny kid, Adam Lanza´s seeming to go dark was a recent development from accounts of those to whom she did talk. It was about withdrawal. Refusal to speak to her. Staying in the room in the basement.

Just saw #8. Do we know that she did not secure her guns in a gun safe? I´ve seen nothing on that in all the reports I´ve read.

He was a smart guy. He´d probably have been able to find a key.

Excellent essay. There can be signs for a parent. Just today in Phoenix a young girl (16), transgender, was arrested after posting a threat on Youtube about killing her classmates. She´d been acting odd, and when she asked her dad about his guns he locked them up. She admitted she didn´t know if she would have gone thru with the threat. Nine times out of ten she would have done nothing. How can you know. Do we lock everyone up or do we try to make assistance available to the parents.