With all due apologies to Nate Silver, predicting the outcome of a presidential election is always something of a fool’s errand. Regardless of whether you’re a statistician, a campaign strategist, a revered pundit or just some lowly political reporter, your chances of precisely picking the final outcome is dependent on too many last-minute variables to be considered anything more than a somewhat-informed guess. But if the smartest minds in the business — your Michael Barones, George Wills and, yes, Nate Silvers — can have a little fun every four years with their predictions, why can’t we? Caveats aside, here’s how
Comments: Daily Caller predictions: 4 for Romney win, 3 for 0bama win. Some of DC's pundits seem to pick and choose their polls without reason for why they are accurate or inaccurate.
We at Townhall have been covering this hotly contested Senate race for months and the results are finally in: With 36 percent of precincts reporting, Elizabeth Warren has been declared the next junior Senator from Massachusetts. Warren has never held public office before and the eye-popping $40 million she raised this election cycle evidently proved more than enough to unseat incumbent Senator Scott Brown. This was the most expensive Senate race of 2012 -- by a long shot.
Former Gov. Angus King, running as an independent, won the Senate contest Tuesday in Maine, NBC News projected, taking a seat that had been held by the Republicans. The loss further complicated the party's drive to take control of the Senate (Snip) Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Paul Sadler to hold the open seat in Texas, succeeding retiring Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison, NBC News projected. See results Democrats held small edges in two of the other states critical to the balance of power in the Senate: In Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren, a law professor at Harvard University, was leading Republican
CNN’s Peter Hamby reported that Mitt Romney‘s internal polling showed President Obama leading in Ohio by five percentage points.Per Hamby’s post: The number represented a sharp final bump for Obama in Ohio, a race that had essentially been a tied race through much of the previous week, according to the campaign’s daily tracking. The polling, which also showed a tight race in Pennsylvania, explains why Romney officials decided to send their candidate on last-minute Election Day visits to Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
The Obama and Romney campaigns may be gearing up for a very late night, with one Obama campaign adviser predicting that in Florida alone, "they'll be counting until 2 a.m." The Obama adviser said signs suggest the race is quite tight, though the campaign claimed to be "holding strong" in key battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The adviser also said turnout among black voters in Virginia was better than expected, suggesting that could be a problem for Mitt Romney. Republican operatives in Virginia, though, predicted a razor-thin victory for their candidate in the state.
Washington - Early returns on Tuesday in what is anticipated to be a dead even presidential election contained no surprises, as CNN projected President Barack Obama will win his home state of Illinois and eight other races while Republican challenger Mitt Romney will win nine states. All races called so far went as expected after the roller-coaster ride of an election campaign that was buffeted by a superstorm and missteps on both sides. Obama and Romney ran dead even in final polls that hinted at a result rivaling some of the closest presidential elections in history, reflecting the deep political
A week after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, a majority of voters said President Barack Obama’s response to the crisis wasn’t a factor in their vote, according to early exit polls. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed, per CBS News’ early exit polling released by radio station WKZO in Kalamazoo, Mich., said Obama’s handling of the storm was a minor factor in their vote or wasn’t a factor at all. Twenty-six percent named Sandy as an “important” factor, and 15 percent said it was the “most important” factor in their decision.
Mitt Romney is leading among independents in both Ohio and Virginia, early exit polls show. In Ohio, the former Massachusetts governor takes 56 percent of self-identified independents, compared with 40 percent for President Barack Obama. That’s a huge decrease for Obama from 2008, when the exit polls found him winning independents in Ohio by 12 points, 52 percent to 44 percent for John McCain. The numbers are similar but slightly tighter in Virginia: Romney takes 53 percent of independents there, according to ABC News exit polls, a 12-point lead over Obama. In 2008, Obama won independents in the state by
Mitt Romney and President Obama each racked up early and expected victories Tuesday night in relatively safe territory, while some of the biggest battlegrounds that will decide the election remained too close to call. All the big swing states where polls have closed -- Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina -- were too close to call, Fox News projects. (Snip) Obama will also win three of Maine's four electoral votes, Fox News projects. It is unclear where the state's fourth electoral vote will fall. The latest batch of poll closings, and results, has allowed Obama to take
Mitt Romney was projected the winner in South Carolina on Tuesday night, taking home the state’s nine electoral votes. So far Tuesday the former Massachusetts governor has taken other reliably red states including Kentucky and West Virginia. Romney leads in the Electoral College with 24 electoral votes to President Obama’s three.
As expected, the presidential race is tight in Ohio, where the polls just closed: President Obama is winning women 55 percent to 44 percent in the early CBS News exit poll, while Mitt Romney is leading 52 percent to 46 percent among men. Women made up 51 percent of the electorate, compared to 49 percent among women. Thirty-nine percent of voters so far identified themselves as Democrats, compared to 30 percent calling themselves Republican. Thirty-one percent identified as independent or something else, and Romney has a big edge among this group - 56 percent to 40 percent for Mr. Obama.
As expected, Republican candidate for President, Mitt Romney, won West Virginia’s five electoral votes in Tuesday’s General Election over President Barack Obama. National media outlets called the race in West Virginia shortly after polls closed at 7:30 p.m. President Obama’s fate in West Virginia has never been in question, as he garnered just 60 percent of the democratic vote in the May primary. The other 40 percent of that vote went to Texas federal inmate Keith Judd, who was placed on the ballot in West Virginia. President Obama has been hugely unpopular in the Mountain State since he first ran
Early exit polls show Election Day voters are slightly more Republican than in 2008 and broadly concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Six in 10 voters said the economy is their top issue according to the poll, which was released by The Associated Press and conducted on behalf of a consortium of media companies. Less than a quarter of voters said their families were better off than four years ago — a point seized on by many Republicans as the results leaked out.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds a narrow lead among Republicans for the party’s 2016 presidential nomination, but even more GOP voters say he’s the candidate they least want to see nominated. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Christie earns 21% support when Republican voters are asked whom they would vote for if the party’s primary in their state were held today. Florida Senator Marco Rubio runs a close second with 18% of the GOP vote, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 16% and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 15% of the vote.
WASHINGTON — U.S. officials insisted Tuesday that extraordinary security measures for nearly two dozen diplomatic posts were to thwart an “immediate, specific threat,” a claim questioned by counterterrorism experts, who note that the alert covers an incongruous set of nations from the Middle East to an island off the southern coast of Africa. Analysts don’t dispute the Obama administration’s narrative that it’s gleaned intelligence on a plot involving al Qaida’s most active affiliate, the Yemen-based Arabian Peninsula branch. That would explain why most U.S. posts in the Persian Gulf are on lockdown, including the U.
Barack Obama delivered one gaffe after another in his August 6 interview with Jay Leno, but the networks that usually mock every mistake or slip of the tongue made by Republicans ignored the President´s verbal mishaps. ABC´s Good Morning America, CBS´s This Morning and NBC´s Today show, on Wednesday morning, all bypassed the chance to criticize Obama for: downplaying the threat of terrorism; falsely claiming Vladimir Putin once ran the KGB; placing the Atlantic coast cities of Savannah, Charleston and Jacksonville on the Gulf of Mexico; confusing the Winter Olympics with the Summer Olympics. First up, on the
Critics of the president are convinced that Barack Obama will do lasting damage to the U.S. I doubt it. Obama came to power in the third year of large Democratic congressional majorities. In his first referendum, he lost the House and he may soon lose the Senate; in other words, there followed a somewhat normal reaction against a majority party. Obama’s popularity rating is well below 50%, despite an obsequious media and a brilliantly negative billion-dollar campaign that long ago turned Mitt Romney into a veritable elevator-using, equestrian-marrying, canine-hating monster. In the second term, there is little
Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney jumped into the debate over the GOP’s future Tuesday night, warning congressional Republicans against forcing a government shutdown in their quest to stop President Barack Obama’s signature health care law. Romney addressed more than 200 donors on the shores of Lake Winnipesaukee at a fundraiser for the New Hampshire Republican Party, staged just four miles from the vacation home where he has spent much of the summer with his family. The event was closed to the media, but his office released his prepared remarks.
The U.S. State Department issued a global alert about the terrorist threat allegedly posed by Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The USA announced the closure of its missions in the Middle East and Africa, and their example was followed by France, Britain, and Germany. However, this was only an attempt to justify the activities of the National Security Agency.Last Saturday, right after alerting of the terror threat civilians and BOLO complex ("be on the lookout") that includes law enforcement and federal officials, President Barack Obama went to play golf, and then celebrated his birthday at the presidential retreat at Camp David.
Last month we learned that Megyn Kelly was leaving her daytime anchor gig to take over a Fox News primetime slot. According to an “exclusive” Drudge Report flash this afternoon, that time slot will be 9 p.m. ET. “Superstar newswoman Megyn Kelly has landed the 9 PM slot, top sources reveal,” the Drudge Report wrote. “The shock announcement is set for later this month.” Fox’s 9 p.m. hour is currently helmed by Sean Hannity, leading to speculation over whether he could be out of a primetime gig. There are many possible outcomes from this lineup change,
In a rare diplomatic snub, President Obama is canceling plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next month. The decision reflects both U.S. anger over Russia´s harboring of National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden and growing frustration within the Obama administration over what it sees as Moscow´s stubbornness on other key issues, including missile defense and human rights. Obama will still attend the Group of 20 economic summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, but a top White House official said the president had no plans to hold one-on-one talks with Putin while there.
Ending a war is a good thing. Killing civilians a bad thing. Deliberately targeting civilians is murder, and is never morally licit, even in pursuit of a good thing such as ending a war. The tens of thousands of Japanese non-combatants we killed 68 years ago this week with two nuclear bombs were not “collateral damage” of military strikes. They were the intended targets. We hoped that mass murder would bring the Japanese emperor to surrender. It worked, and American and Japanese soldiers’ lives were probably saved by it —
A poll released Friday by Public Policy Polling found that Alaska voters would pick former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over the state´s former Republican governor, Sarah Palin, if the two women were to face off in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton led with 49 percent in the hypothetical match-up, with Palin at 40 percent, a nine-point gap. As of July 3, Republicans comprised 27 percent of the state´s registered voters and Democrats made up just 14 percent. The last time Alaskans opted for the Democrats´ presidential candidate was in 1964. Clinton trails five other hypothetical GOP candidates –
Over the last week, there has been a lot of buzz about a supposed CIA angle to the Benghazi story. Specifically, it has been alleged that a substantial number of CIA employees were on the ground in Benghazi, carrying out a mission that involved rounding up Libyan weapons and transferring them to rebels in Syria. Further, it has been reported that the CIA has leaned on its employees not to cooperate with Congressional investigations or the media, and it has been suggested that the CIA’s role in Benghazi may be related to the al Qaeda
President Obama is slated to deliver a speech later this month commemorating the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington in which Martin Luther King Jr. gave his famous “I Have a Dream” speech. Obama will deliver his speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial — the same place where King spoke 50 years ago. The Let Freedom Ring ceremony will be held Aug. 28. "It’s obviously a historic, seminal event in the country. It’s part of my generation’s formative memory and it’s a good time for us to do some reflection,"