The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent. While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
FTA: According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
Re: the electoral college. If Obama's a shoe-in there, why does he say he favors its abolition?
One thing that has occurred to me that I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere: The electoral college outcomes are estimated using state polls while the popular vote is estimated using national polls.
National polls are published multiple times daily while state polls are done much less frequently - on average once a week if that. When a candidate is rising in the polls the newer polls will pick that up - while the state polls - dominated by weeks-old polling - will not fully reflect that.
The mainstream media is no longer content to report the news. They want to be kingmaker too. If Romney wins by a small margin, you can be sure that the mainstream media will use all its influence to keep Barack in the White House by pointing out all the polls where Barack was ahead with their D+x% skewing.
If Fred Barnes is right, the MSM may not be able to do as much, and they will settle back into their normal routine of nitpicking everything that President Romney does.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
J F Ackerman, 10/29/2012 10:03:18 AM (No. 8971243)
Pray this be true. "Coming in on a wing and a prayer."
Also, I don't care how many threats these trashy democrats and black thugs make, go ahead, make our day. We are going to win regardless of your electric immaturity and when it's done, hopefully you'll be met with a lethal force you haven't ever cared to dream of. I'm done with these people. Get the lying king out of America's house now!
The dirty tricks have been going on since the beginning...foreign donations to the O campaign by not checking the origin of the ccards, voter fraud using mail in ballots and foreign citizens and who knows what else. These criminals need to not only get kicked out but put in prison!
This is the gold standard of polls. Plus, it correlates with a bunch of other stuff: some Romney person said yesterday on this week with George Uglypuss that they would win 53-47. Obama has been at 47 in nearly every poll taken forever. Rove said last week "look at the incumbent's number on the last poll, as that's what he'll end up with on election day." Romney hasn't bothered hitting Obama on Benghazi because he doesn't have to. Obama has been acting like he's behind because he is. Let's just hope Sandy doesn't change anything!
The State Department has issued a worldwide travel alert because of the threat of terrorist attacks from al-Qaida and affiliated organizations, it said Friday. The State Department cited the potential for terrorist attacks in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. "Current information suggests that al-Qaida and affiliated organizations continue to plan terrorist attacks both in the region and beyond, and that they may focus efforts to conduct attacks in the period
We just heard from President Obama that the middle class is struggling. We also heard that he is taking another those vacations that will cost a fortune: "The Massachusetts island of Martha´s Vineyard, the exclusive playground for presidents and their families, is about to get its annual summer infusion of cash and attention as President Obama and his family prepare to arrive August 10 for an eight-day vacation. Local reports indicate that the first family will likely be staying at a
On November 25, 1970, writer Yukio Mishima and four of his friends paid a visit to the commandant of the Tokyo camp of Japan´s eastern army. After the commandant poured tea, things turned weird. The visitors tied the officer to his chair, took him hostage and demanded that entire camp gather beneath his balcony. When the soldiers were assembled, Mishima extolled them to hold a coup to restore the authority of the emperor. The audience laughed. Realising that he was getting nowhere, Mishima knelt down on the floor and committed ritual suicide
Nice Fallback Position You’ve Got There: Both pro- and anti-legalization forces in the immigration fight will be trying to make their cases to House members–especially Republican members–during the August recess. But here’s the fundamental asymmetry in this debate–the pro-legalization forces don’t really need to show up. The anti-legalizers do. Pro-side Democrats can be distracted (by the need to defend Obamacare, for example) or they can just be lazy and unmotivated. As long as the antis are also unmotivated, legalization will win. Tie goes to the border-jumper.
Starting in 2014, members of Congress and their staffs will have to get their health insurance through Obamacare’s insurance marketplaces. But according to a regulation that the Obama administration’s Office of Personnel Management plans to announce on Friday and release next week, the federal government can continue to contribute toward the cost of their health plans. The regulation comes after months of worry on Capitol Hill. The Affordable Care Act includes a provision, first proposed by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), forcing members of Congress and their staffs
These "phony" scandals keep rudely refusing to go away. New findings from the House Judiciary Committee appear to stop short of accusing the Attorney General of bona fide perjury, but make clear that they view his testimony as grossly misleading. Via National Review: The House Judiciary Committee has just released a report declaring that Attorney General Eric Holder misled House members during sworn testimony about the Justice Department’s investigation of Fox News reporter James Rosen. “The Committee finds that Mr. Holder’s sworn testimony in the Rosen matter was deceptive and misleading,” the report reads.
These days there are sophisticated and scientific solutions to the dismal problem of unwanted childlessness — there are IVF, Viagra and well-established egg and sperm donor services. We think of these as recent advantages and give thanks for the modern age. But what only very few people are aware of is that long before sperm donation was practically or ethically possible, in the early 20th century, a secret sperm donation service existed for those women most in need. Helena Wright was a renowned doctor, bestselling author, campaigner and educator who overcame the establishment
Confession: You’re paying my phone bill. In the past month, I have received three shiny new cell phones, courtesy of American taxpayers, that should never have fallen into my hands. The Federal Communications Commission oversees the so-called Lifeline program, created in 1984 to make sure impoverished Americans had telephone service available to call their moms, bosses, and 911. In 2008, the FCC expanded the program to offer subsidized cell-phone service, and since then, the expenses of running the program have soared. In 2012, the program’s costs had risen to $2.189 billion, up from $822
Eliot Spitzer refused today to deny that he has a girlfriend. The candidate for city comptroller was asked three times at a campaign stop this morning in Brooklyn about persistent rumors he is having an "extra-marital affair." "I am so tired of the personal attacks and I´ve answered all those questions," Spitzer said outside the Borough Hall subway station, where he was shaking hands with voters and received an overwhelmingly positive response. "The public cares about what I did in government. That´s what I´m going to be talking about and that´s what the public is going to be voting on --
During his first presidential race, Barack Obama pledged to "expand and fund AmeriCorps from 75,000 slots today to 250,000" volunteers, putting service-minded millennials to work on the nation´s toughest problems. After just three months in office, he signed the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act authorizing the expansion of the Clinton-era program to the goal of 250,000. He had kept his promise, Obama boasted, and he declared 2009 the dawn of a "new era of service." But the dawn never broke. Congress never funded the quarter-million hires, not even when Democrats controlled both chambers in 2009-10.
“We have learned that the sequestration already has cut 1.6 million jobs. So we need job creation. We need to help the middle class by creating jobs.” — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), floor speech, July 31, 2013 Reid’s comment jumped out at us — 1.6 million jobs have already been lost because of the sequester? That seemed rather large. The sequester, of course, are the automatic across-the-board spending cuts that were imposed March 1 when Republicans and Democrats could not reach agreement on a budget plan.
The rapid evolution of attitudes toward gay marriage is a wonder to behold. On few issues has public opinion moved as quickly or decisively. Many who are against the formal recognition of homosexual unions are now resigned to the reality they will eventually become commonplace. The main drivers of this transformation are obvious. Most Americans now know that people they care about are gay men or lesbians, and empathy can do wonderful things. Partly because of this, younger Americans overwhelmingly favor same-sex marriage. They will dominate the electorates of the future.
Citing a potential al Qaeda attack, the State Department on Friday issued a worldwide travel alert and warned American citizens that the terrorist group may be plotting a strike in the Middle East, North Africa or elsewhere. “Current information suggests that al Qaeda and affiliated organizations continue to plan terrorist attacks both in the region and beyond, and that they may focus efforts to conduct attacks in the period between now and the end of August,” reads a portion of the alert, which lasts until the end of the month.
Executive Director of Mayors Against Illegal Guns Mark Glaze gave some ambiguous and potentially dangerous self defense advice Friday on “Hardball.” Glaze, speaking in opposition to “Stand Your Ground” laws, said in a circumstance where someone “comes at you” with an axe handle one should attempt to either “talk,” “fight with your fists,” “run away,” or “deescalate the situation,” but not shoot the attacker: MARK GLAZE: Very often somebody will come at you. They might want to have a fistfight. They might come at you with an ax handle. CHRIS MATTHEWS: Would you consider the guy with the ax handle armed or not?
[Video] Rapper Jay Z appearing on HBO´s "Real Time" with Bill Maher says that the black community wants upward economic mobility rather than a stronger police presence. In a conversation with former Congressman Barney Frank about police tactics such as stop-and-frisk, Jay Z suggests the stagnant economy and wealth inequality could cause widespread social unrest: "The real problem is there´s no middle class, right? So the gap between the have and have-nots is getting wider and wider... It´s gonna be a problem that no amount of police can solve, because once you have that sort of oppression
About 400 area retail and fast-food workers, together with colleagues nationally, participated in a strike Thursday to demand raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. “If not $15, then something. I mean give us something. I work 36 hours a week and barely make enough to pay my rent, gas bill, light bill. It gets to the point where I barely have enough for lunch sometimes,” said Angel Richardson, 21, who works at McDonald’s. “I’m five months pregnant, what am I going to do in four months? I hope something changes.” The minimum wage is $7.25 nationally and $8.25
You don´t have to be gay or even Russian to feel the wrath of the Russian government´s homophobia. You could go to jail if you are "pro-gay," whatever that means. And that´s under just one of a growing number of hate-infused bills becoming law at a time when, as it happens, Russia is preparing to host the world in the next Winter Olympics. The perverse anti-gay legislation is inflaming an atmosphere of persistent intimidation and at times deadly violence against Russian gays and lesbians. The question now is: What should the rest of the world do?
Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) suggested on Friday morning that the tea party movement is comprised of the same types of people who fought against the civil rights movement during the 1960s. Speaking with the Daily Beast, Rangel said of the movement: “It is the same group we faced in the South with those white crackers and the dogs and the police. They didn’t care about how they looked. He added that the tea party movement can be defeated similar to how the civil rights movement eradicated Jim Crow mentality: “It was just fierce indifference to human life that caused
White House insiders say President Barack Obama is in “a funk” about what he sees as increasing stagnation and failures surrounding his second term and some worry that the President is becoming more distant and distracted. “He’s not the same Obama that came to the Oval Office after the 2008 elections,” a senior White House aided confided to friends in an email recently. “I’m worried.” Chicago Mayor and former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel tells friends that the Presidency has changed his longtime friend Obama and many of those changes are “not good.”
The nation´s most active death penalty state is running out of its execution drug. The Texas Department of Criminal Justice said Thursday that its remaining supply of phenobarbital expires in September and that no alternatives have been found. It wasn´t immediately clear whether two executions scheduled for next month would be delayed. The state has already executed 11 death-row inmates this year, and at least seven more have execution dates in coming months. "We will be unable to use our current supply of phenobarbital after it expires," agency spokesman Jason Clark said. "We are exploring all options at this time."
I think she’s one of the most fascinating women of our time and this world,” confessed Bob Greenblatt, the chairman of NBC, as part of his announcement that his network is making a miniseries about former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, with Diane Lane in the starring role. Words are funny things. For instance, G.K. Chesterton once remarked that that the word “good” has many uses: “For example, if a man were to shoot his grandmother at a range of 500 yards, I should call him a good shot but not necessarily a good man.” So it is,
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After purchasing the Boston Globe in 1993 for a then-record $1.1 billion, the financially troubled New York Times just announced it sold the 141 year-old paper to Boston Red Sox owner John Henry for a mere $70 million. That´s a straight 93% loss. Figuring in two decades of inflation would only make it worse -- as does the fact the Times retains the Globe´s pension liabilities, estimated at over $100 million. (snip) What might have sweetened the lower offer for the Times is that Henry offered a straight cash deal, which is expected to close sometime in September or October.
Two beliefs continue to shape debate on Obamacare. First, pre-existing medical conditions shouldn’t prevent people from obtaining affordable health insurance. And second, people who don’t want health insurance shouldn’t be forced by the government to purchase it. These may seem to be reasonable positions. But they are incompatible. That’s been shown by historical events, and it’s now being strikingly confirmed by recent experience in the emerging Obamacare insurance exchanges. The crux of the matter is what economists call the adverse-selection problem. Uninsured people with pre-existing conditions often face tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in