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Real Clear Politics is Predicting
a Red Wave in the Senate

Daily Caller, by Evie Fordham

Original Article

Posted By:StormCnter, 10/11/2018 1:18:15 PM

RealClearPolitics data is pointing to a red wave in the Senate this November, with recent polls showing key seats like North Dakota and Arizona going or staying red. RealClear currently predicts that at least 49 Senate seats will be Republican and at least 44 will be Democrats, with seven toss-up races. In three of those toss-ups, recent polls contain good news for Republican candidates. If Republicans do win in the four toss-up races where they have the best chances — Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada and Missouri — the Senate could see a net gain

      


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Reply 1 - Posted by: john56, 10/11/2018 1:24:10 PM     (No. 11793260)

The GOP has no reason why they aren´t adding 4-6 seats this November. The math was in their favor before the Democrats stepped in it big time with their Kavanaugh hearing fiascos.

Now it´s time to hold the House.

Thanks to our Democrat friends for keeping the GOP Establishment from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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Reply 2 - Posted by: chumley, 10/11/2018 1:30:03 PM     (No. 11793265)

Why is two seats a wave? More like a trickle. Its nice to win but there´s no use in overstating it. They overuse landslide a lot too.

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.R-LJ.
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Reply 3 - Posted by: Zarin, 10/11/2018 1:30:52 PM     (No. 11793268)

Chances are this is because the economy is doing well enough that the ´bottom´ 1/3 of the working class have jobs and the hope of even better jobs. This is according to Conrad Black. The Democrats essentially abandoned the working class years ago even before Obama won. The Democrats offered nothing for working people - other than food stamps and very expensive ´free´ healthcare. These people are now voting - they feel they have a stake in the political scene. They see President Trump as ´their´ guy?

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Reply 4 - Posted by: NorthernDog, 10/11/2018 1:56:54 PM     (No. 11793298)

I´m glad to see Nevada and Arizona are now showing the Republican ahead - if only by a few points. Hope to see Indiana and Missouri follow the same path. We´ll need some more R´s for the next Supreme Court confirmation - which could easily be within the next year.

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Reply 5 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua, 10/11/2018 2:22:20 PM     (No. 11793330)

Can see the Republicans picking up 4 05 5 seats in the Senate. Indiana (R+9), Missouri (R+9), Montana (R+11), North Dakota (R+16), and West Virginia (R+20) are all held by Democrats but have Republican majorities. There are also Florida (R+2) and Ohio (R+3).

Polls show the Democrats picking up 15-20 seats in the House, but many are listed as tossups when the district has a Republican majority.

Get out, vote, and make it happen! With their rhetoric and treatment of Kavanagh, the Democrats are imploding!

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Reply 6 - Posted by: LC Chihuahua, 10/11/2018 2:28:20 PM     (No. 11793338)

sigh...

Can see the Republicans picking up ´4 or 5´ seats in the Senate.

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Reply 7 - Posted by: Starboard_side, 10/11/2018 2:29:34 PM     (No. 11793339)

Need to push the idea of "we aren´t looking to resist, but to engage, to work on-behalf of our state, and find ways to help bring more jobs, good jobs, and results".

There are areas who will only resist, and they may find they will lose out to those willing to work with instead of resist.

Think of California, which only seems to be pushing the resist mantra, but will they end up losing out on deals, on jobs, and other things the government assists with ALL due to other states and cities looking to work with the current administration instead?

And, don´t be fooled by those conservative sounding House Democrat candidates, particularly those who´ve never held any political office, as they will forced to vote the liberal/progressive agenda of Nancy Pelosi.


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Reply 8 - Posted by: dvc, 10/11/2018 2:40:16 PM     (No. 11793355)

I have been predicting a gain from 3 to 5 seats in the Senate in November for about 18 months. I stand by that.

The Kavanaugh attacks may increase that to 6 or 7 Senate seats gained, possibly.

I think Republicans will hold the House, possibly even gain seats. The long, historic norm for midterms when the House, Senate and Presidency are held by the same party is for the majority party to lose many seats in the House, often losing control. If we lose a few seats and hold the House majority, or even gain seats, it will be a big victory. If we lose the House, it will be, unfortunate, but normal.

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Reply 9 - Posted by: bpl40, 10/11/2018 3:54:01 PM     (No. 11793416)

It must be hurting like a sharp burr under the saddle for RCP to admit it. Double their estimate. I am also getting a warmer feeling about the House. Though not confident yet.

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Reply 10 - Posted by: strike3, 10/11/2018 6:27:23 PM     (No. 11793545)

Masters of the obvious.

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Reply 11 - Posted by: Nevadadad46, 10/11/2018 7:20:03 PM     (No. 11793569)

Here is RCP´s best guess at what the 2016 outcome would be-Published on Nov. 7th, 2016. All their latest polling data, their compute4r algorithms, Larry Sabato´s best guesses combined with polls from overseas- all showed almost the exact opposite of how the election turned out.

Electoral College

RCP prediction: Hillary 323 - Trump: 215

Actual Outcome: Hillary 227 - Trump 304

So, if RCP is predicting something- Laugh. It has as much worth as used toilet paper.

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2016-presidential-election-prediction/

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Reply 12 - Posted by: EQKimball, 10/11/2018 8:31:49 PM     (No. 11793616)

A few days ago, RCP House polling was 206 Dems, 194 Republican, total margin of 12. Today it is 204 Dems, 199 Republican, total margin of 5.

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