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The stock market on the Orient Express
PJ Media, by David P. Goldman [Spengler]

Original Article

Posted By:Hazymac, 10/11/2018 9:34:50 AM

Everybody did it in Agatha Christie´s novel Murder on the Orient Express, and the same problem bedevils the US stock market today. A dozen co-conspirators killed the victim in the Christie novel. Here are a dozen factors that bedevil the stock market: 1) Bond yields continue to rise even while the broad stock market indices tank an unusual event. That, as I argued earlier this week, is in part due to the overstretching of bank balance sheets, which makes it hard for foreign investors to hedge currency risk in US portfolios. 2) Corporations spend more buying back their own stock than

      


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Reply 1 - Posted by: stencil, 10/11/2018 9:49:07 AM     (No. 11792946)

Thanks for the post. As always, Spengler is succinct in his analysis. Of the dozen, my greatest concern is #11 and that China will not, or cannot, meet the US on mutually agreeable terms.

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Reply 2 - Posted by: Ribald1, 10/11/2018 10:11:34 AM     (No. 11792985)

The increasing trade deficit with China, along with the reductions in our exports overall were the expected and I have to believe desired result of the tariffs.

Having a common enemy is a viable strategy for a leader to get people rallied behind him, but I liked Trump better when that common enemy was government waste, abuse and regulation. You know, the things that improved the economy rather than throttle it.

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.R-LJ.
R-LJ
  


 
Reply 3 - Posted by: arcady, 10/11/2018 11:31:48 AM     (No. 11793118)

Respectfully, the market is pricing in the risk that the Dems could regain some power this election and derail President Trump and the US.
The Dems have told everyone what they will do, and it will be bad. Portfolio managers in the market correctly have to prepare for that.
The other probable large equity market seller recently, were some insurance companies raising some funds for Florida claims.

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Reply 4 - Posted by: Hotrod, 10/11/2018 11:41:39 AM     (No. 11793129)

My beef with many of the dire warnings is based on an unstated assumption that business does not know what they are doing. The concern over corporations buying back their stock, instead of spending most of their profits on expanding, hiring, etc. assumes that a corporation will never do those things, and just wants to buy back their stock and remain as they are.

Successful corporations have strategies to protect themselves and ensure survival. They plan ahead for contingencies and are very careful about expenditures- unlike government. They will expand and hire when they see the benefit of doing so, not as a social program. Overextending is a dangerous thing for business. Unlike government, it cannot just take money to cover bad management.

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Reply 5 - Posted by: dvc, 10/12/2018 2:09:33 AM     (No. 11793749)

When it reaches 10% drop, which would be 2500 points, it is a correction. Time to buy. Otherwise, just noise, relax.

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