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Topic: Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst)
in the 2012 Presidential Race |
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst)
in the 2012 Presidential Race
New York Times, by Nate Silver
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Original Article
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Posted By:congaree53, 11/11/2012 9:15:12 AM
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| As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing as well. In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out.
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Comments:
Both Rasmussen and Gallup had a "Dewey Beats Truman, moment.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
wendybird, 11/11/2012 9:28:08 AM (No. 9006823)
Which polls predicted the 140% of the population turnout in Florida? That would be more interesting.
http://www.slcelections.com/Pdf%20Docs/2012%20General/GEMS%20SOVC%20REPORT.pdf
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Reply 2 - Posted by:
lakerman1, 11/11/2012 9:40:40 AM (No. 9006853)
Voter fraud was subtle, but existed, in 2012. And the negro church vans run to the polls had a significant impact on a close election.
The symbol for the president zero second term is that toothless black woman from cleveland, on that video that went viral.
The founders would have wept.
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Reply 3 - Posted by:
PageTurner, 11/11/2012 10:49:50 AM (No. 9007013)
Remember this thread? Remember how Mike Flynn wrote that IBD was in bed with Obama with its undoutedly biased leftwingpolls? And how readers fretted that IBD was damaging its brand name with these dreadful polls too?
http://lucianne.com/thread/?artnum=708171
Wonder what Mike Flynn thinks now.
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Reply 4 - Posted by:
chance_232, 11/11/2012 1:26:12 PM (No. 9007330)
I dont doubt that the early polls were cooked. Remember, polls are used to influence public opinion and generate news.
Which leads to the following observation: We here have been living in a bubble. Look at the news sources that are most often posted here. The majority come from places like Briebart and or are opinion pieces from conservative commentators. News or opinions from other sources are put up where they are mocked. Dont forget....ABCCBSNBCMSNBCPBSNPRCNN are influencing for more people than FOX and Briebart. While I believe the MSM is biased, majorly, for the socialists, we need to understand their opinions to better address the idiocy.
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Below, you will find ...
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Gallup, by Lydia Saad
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 6/19/2013 2:52:23 PM
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PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama´s job approval rating thus far in 2013 has averaged 24 percentage points higher than Americans´ satisfaction with the direction in which the country is going. This gap is typical for the Obama presidency, but represents a much greater presidential job approval premium than most other presidents since Ronald Reagan have enjoyed. More specifically, so far this year, an average of 50% of Americans have approved of the job Obama is doing as president. At the same time, an average of 26% have been satisfied with the direction of the country. Similarly, since the start of his presidency in 2009, Obama's average job approval rating has been running 26 points higher than Americans' average level of satisfaction with the nation, and has ranged from 22 to 30 points higher each year.
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Posted By: congaree53- 6/18/2013 11:01:46 AM
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A series of recent polls show President Obama’s approval rating at about 46 percent on average. This is somewhat lower than it was in late May, when it averaged 48 percent or 49 percent. Has the shift been caused by the dominant news story of the last two weeks — the disclosures about the National Security Agency’s domestic surveillance programs? That’s tough to say since presidential approval ratings rarely provide unambiguous interpretations as to cause and effect.
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RUSH: From TheHill.com: "A new poll finds a trio of controversies raising public concerns about the ´honesty´ of the Obama administration," not the president. "A new poll finds a trio of controversies raising public concerns about the ´honesty´ of the Obama [regime], even as the president maintains his approval rating." Limbaugh Theorem again. "A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released late Tuesday shows 55% believe the IRS targeting of conservative groups raised questions about the administration´s ´overall honesty and integrity...´" But Obama had nothing to do with it.
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A slew of recent controversies has raised questions about the Obama administration for many citizens, but President Barack Obama himself has largely remained unscathed, a new poll finds. According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll posted Tuesday, 55 percent of respondents said the recent IRS scandal, in which a division in the agency singled out conservative groups for extra scrutiny, raised some doubts — 41 percent said major doubts; 14 percent said minor — about the “honesty and integrity of the Obama administration.”
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Posted By: congaree53- 6/4/2013 11:37:07 AM
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Nearly seven months after President Obama won reelection by a margin of 4 percentage points, the Gallup Organization, the world´s best-known polling firm, identified in a new report four main reasons why their 2012 surveys badly understated Obama´s support. The report, unveiled at a Tuesday morning event at the firm´s headquarters in Washington, detailed the reasons why Gallup believes that its polls failed to predict Obama´s victory. Gallup´s final pre-election poll showed Mitt Romney leading Obama by a percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent.
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Posted By: congaree53- 6/2/2013 1:50:13 PM
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In the new issue of Bloomberg Businessweek, I have a short feature about how Google’s (GOOG) executive chairman, Eric Schmidt, is investing millions in a new company with Dan Wagner and two dozen other veterans of the Obama campaign’s data analytics team. Schmidt was, not surprisingly, full of praise for the engineers, statisticians, and scientists whose work informed the strategy of a campaign that won by 5 million votes. But given the collaborative effort and many moving parts of a modern presidential campaign, it can be difficult to isolate the data team’s contribution.
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Posted By: congaree53- 5/31/2013 6:48:49 PM
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The controversies surrounding the I.R.S.’s targeting of conservative groups and the executive branch’s handling of last year’s attacks in Benghazi, Libya, have yet to have much impact on President Obama’s approval ratings (although some slight decline may be hidden by an improved economic mood). But Mr. Obama’s former secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, appears to be have been more affected.A Quinnipiac University poll released on Friday found Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating declining to 52 percent, from 61 percent in February. The decrease was considerably more modest in a CNN poll released earlier this month, with Mrs. Clinton’s
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A group of whistleblowers, including a number of aviation experts, have come forward in a new documentary to claim that the official explanation for the crash of TWA Flight 800 was wrong and a gas tank explosion did not bring down the flight off the coast of Long Island 17 years ago. However, the six whistleblowers, all part of the original investigation team, stopped short of saying the plane was shot down. Flight 800, a Boeing 747, had just taken off from JFK airport with 230 people aboard on July 17, 1996 enroute to Paris when it exploded
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Original Article
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Posted By: JoniTx- 6/19/2013 4:58:06 AM
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Listening to Barack Obama give his speech in Belfast on Monday, it was hard not to stifle a yawn. I kept waiting for the part when he would say something interesting, but, about three quarters of the way through, realised it wasn’t going to come. Judging from television pictures some of his young audience felt the same, after the initial rush of euphoria of receiving the rock star president in their midst had passed. This is not surprising, for we had already heard this number about the inspirational role of the Northern Ireland peace process and the Emerald Isle’s
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Posted By: Hobbiest- 6/19/2013 6:03:40 PM
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Celebrity chef Paula Deen admitted in a recorded deposition to telling racist jokes, using the N-word, and planning a slavery-themed wedding, according to multiple reports. The May 17 deposition where she made the alleged admissions is part of a $1.2 million lawsuit brought by Lisa Jackson, the former manager of a Savannah, Georgia, restaurant run by Deen and her brother Bubba Hiers. Jackson alleges in the suit that Deen used the N-word at the restaurant and that Hiers sexually harassed her. According to the reports, in the deposition, Deen replied “Yes, of course,”
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Charlie Rose last night asked President Obama his new Syria policy. The president first objected to it being called a new policy. "I´m not sure you can characterize this as a new policy. This is consistent with the policy that I´ve had throughout," he said. Obama then explained the goal is regional stability, and especially in Syria. "Really, what we´re trying to do is take sides against extremists of all sorts and in favor of people who are in favor of moderation, tolerance, representative government, and over the long-term, stability and prosperity for the people of Syria," said Obama.
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The IRS Immigration Fraud Scandal
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American Spectator, by Jeffrey Lord
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Marco Rubio. Paul Ryan. The IRS. Illegal immigration. And fraud to the tune of billions.. Now there’s a combustible mix. Let’s start with the IRS, illegal immigration and fraud. We’ll come back in a minute to Senator Rubio and Congressman Ryan. For those who came in late, a year before the IRS scandals burst onto the scene in early May of 2013, an alert investigative reporter for WTHR-Indianapolis (Channel 13), Bob Segall by name, produced a stunning piece of journalism. Segall’s video report is found here and we will quote from his story for the basics.
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