You may have noticed some political reporters paying extra close attention to the result of this afternoon's football game between the Washington Redskins and the Carolina Panthers. They aren't football fans, they're just looking to see if they can guess the result of the election. Here's why. What they're paying attention to is what's known as the "Redskins Rule." Deadspin's Isaac Raunch explained the rule Sunday morning in a post about sports indicators of the election results: In 17 of the 18 presidential elections since the Redskins moved to DC in 1937, a Redskins loss
It has been a year since trading firm MF Global — run by ex-Goldman Sachs CEO and Democratic New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine — collapsed, taking $1.6 billion in client funds with it. Which raises interesting questions: * Why has there been so little movement in the criminal probe of the collapse? Even Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana says, “People need to go to jail” — yet no one’s been charged or appears likely to be. * How is it that Corzine seems to have gotten away with personally lobbying regulators to permit a strategy that led to the collapse —
David Axelrod was asked this morning on Fox News Sunday about the decision not to deploy military forces to Benghazi the evening of September 11. His response: “The president convened the top military officials that evening and told them to do whatever was necessary and they took the steps that they thought, they took every step they could take.” Did the president in fact “convene the top military officials that evening?” I know of no evidence that he did. The president had a previously scheduled 5:00 p.m. meeting with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey,
Washington - It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election. And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.
The odds appear to be stacking up against Mitt Romney winning the 2012 presidential election on Tuesday. Among political journalists, campaign reporters and most pollsters, there's a congealing conventional wisdom that President Barack Obama is about to be re-elected. On Sunday, we had new national polls from Pew, which put Obama up three, and NBC/Wall Street Journal, which gave him a one-point advantage. Fox, Rasmussen, GWU/Politico and ABC/Washington Post finds a tie nationally. More worrying for Romney is the state polls, particularly in Ohio, where the RealClearPolitics average has Obama with a lead of 2.8 percent.
The gender gap is a familiar feature of American politics and one of the reasons why President Obama remains competitive for reelection despite the weak economy. But there's another factor at work: it’s called “the marriage gap,” and it helps explain the tightening of the polls after the first presidential debate when a Gallup survey found that Romney had erased the gender gap, pulling within one point nationally of Obama among likely women voters. Gallup’s findings prompted a swift response from Joel Benenson, the Obama campaign pollster, questioning the methodology, but other polls also found that Romney had substantially narrowed
Devastating tropical storms of the kind that battered the US last week could be weakened and rendered less deadly using a simple and cheap technology based on a surprising component – old car tyres. One of Britain's leading marine engineers, Stephen Salter, emeritus professor of engineering design at Edinburgh university and a global pioneer of wave power research, has patented with Microsoft billionaires Bill Gates and Nathan Myhrvold the idea of using thousands of tyres lashed together to support giant plastic tubes which extend 100m deep into the ocean. Wave action on the ocean surface
What separated the great Athenian tragedian Sophocles from dozens of his contemporaries — now mere names attached to fragments and quotations — were his unmatched characters, an Ajax, Antigone, or Oedipus whose proverbially fatal flaws ultimately led to their own self-destruction. The Libyan plot is Sophoclean to the core: the heroism of outnumbered Americans who chose to confront a deadly enemy, and were killed and wounded in the defense of their endangered comrades — while the world’s greatest military hesitated to use its power against a ragtag militia to save them. Bureaucrats ignored not only pleas
While the economy is flashing signs of a rebound, it's a markedly different story for a growing number of workers, according to a new survey. More workers than ever report feeling burned out by their jobs, according to a ComPsych Corp. survey of nearly 2,000 employees conducted during September that sought to measure stress levels and their effects in the workplace. "We're seeing a growing trend of employee burnout," said Richard Chaifetz, chief executive of Chicago-based ComPsych, a global provider of employee assistance programs. "It's a product of the sputtering economy — companies continue to be slow to hire,
When a three-ton concrete panel fell from the roof of a newly-constructed Boston motorway tunnel in the summer of 2006, crushing a passing woman to death, Mitt Romney was faced with a major crisis. As a storm of public protest grew over the collapse of the roof, part of an already-unpopular $14bn infrastructure project, Mr Romney, then governor of Massachusetts, stepped in – and did so decisively. "He rolled up his sleeves and took charge of the situation. That was one of the times I felt Romney as at his best," one of several former senior state government
I know many conservatives bristle at the notion of “likeability” or personal “favorability” as an important campaign metric, dismissing it as a shallow consideration not worthy of news coverage. But, the fact is, it does matter. It is not, on its own, a qualification for office, but we are human beings and we make many decisions based on whether we like or dislike others. If you don’t think it’s a boon to be likeable, imagine Ronald Reagan’s presidency with Harry Reid’s personality. (Snip) No longer. In the waning days of this election, Mitt Romney has closed the likeability gap—formerly Obama’s
Richard Hoagland, the acting U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, discussed with Code Pink and anti-Israel activists what he said was classified information, during an October 3 meeting with the groups in Islamabad.Code Pink, a liberal anti-war organization known for disrupting Republican and conservative public events, uploaded a video of the meeting to an Internet video sharing website on Oct. 5. (Snip) Realizing what he had said, Hoagland told the activist gathering: “I probably just, you know, got into big trouble with what I just said.”
The latest CNN national poll of likely voters, which shows a 49%-49% tie between Republican challenger Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, is either absurd, or very good news for the GOP--or both. Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy. Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41% described themselves as Democrats, 29%
Just days after most Massachusetts political pundits had declared Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren the victor in Tuesday's election battle with incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown, a new University of Massachusetts-Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows the two are statistically tied on the eve of the election. Among likely voters, Brown now leads by 1 point, but that's within the margin of error: (Snip) The poll shows Brown holding a 49-48 percent advantage over Warren among likely voters, dispelling earlier polls and Democratic claims of a small Warren lead. The one-point lead is well within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error.
An enormous rally for Mitt Romney in Bucks County, PA had people incredulous and tweeting like fury: @robertcostaNRO my mother is at the Bucks County Romney rally. Says she has never seen a crowd like this. Dwarfs the Bush '04 rally crowd at the same farm. (Snip) The rally isn’t scheduled to begin until 5:30 pm ET, but tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians have already descended on Bucks County, Pa., to show their support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The Pa. rally comes on the heels of a massive rally in Cleveland just hours ago. How big is the
Castle Rock, Colorado - In a telephone call with evangelical voters Sunday night, U.S. Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan told potential voters that President Barack Obama's path for the United States compromises Judeo-Christian values. The comment came during the final sprint for the U.S. election on Tuesday. Speaking to the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a leading group of Christian conservatives, Ryan attacked Obama's vision in stark terms. In the campaign's last week, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and Ryan, his running mate, have argued that if elected, they would end partisan divisiveness and work with Democrats to find solutions
With all due apologies to Nate Silver, predicting the outcome of a presidential election is always something of a fool’s errand. Regardless of whether you’re a statistician, a campaign strategist, a revered pundit or just some lowly political reporter, your chances of precisely picking the final outcome is dependent on too many last-minute variables to be considered anything more than a somewhat-informed guess. But if the smartest minds in the business — your Michael Barones, George Wills and, yes, Nate Silvers — can have a little fun every four years with their predictions, why can’t we? Caveats aside, here’s how
The headline of a recent article by the Washington Post’s Peter Wallsten capsulizes, inadvertently, the supreme paradox of the Obama presidency. “Obama struggles to balance African America’s hopes with country’s as a whole,” it says. (Snip) But nowhere does Wallsten note the irony that four years ago many understood the meaning of Obama’s election as the beginning of the end of the perception of black America as a world apart from the rest of America. There was exhilaration that the nightmare was over – finally. That wrongs have been righted, that we can get on with America’s
With more than 90 million Americans expected to cast their ballots on Tuesday, election officials across the country are bracing for what some fear will be a “perfect storm” of election day problems that could result in tense confrontations at polling stations and a rush to the courthouse to file legal challenges. (Snip) Another big wild card: the impact of groups such as “True the Vote,” a Tea Party off-shoot, that is vowing to swarm polling places with an army of hundreds of thousands of “citizen” poll watchers to look for fraud and challenge ineligible voters. It’s a threat that
Virginia remains a toss up. That’s the takeaway from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll out from the battleground released Sunday. Just two days before what is shaping up to be a very tight presidential election, President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain in a statistical tie for Virginia's crucial 13 electoral votes. Obama holding a narrow 48 percent to 47 percent edge among likely voters in the commonwealth. (There’s little change with registered voters – Obama’s advantage grows one point, 48 percent to 46 percent.) Three weeks ago, the results
Cincinatti, Ohio - As President Obama tried to maximize the precious few stops he has left in crucial Ohio, his rally here Sunday night was full of musical interludes, but not without a few interruptions. Taking the stage at the University of Cincinnati shortly after R+B superstar Stevie Wonder warmed up the crowd, the president was sidetracked by a lone protestor up in the rafters, who held a sign and yelled, his words loud but hard to make out. (Snip) At first the president tried to soldier through and deliver his remarks over the protestor, but he finally gave in as the crowd cheered on state troopers who
Raleigh, N.C. - Shortly before noon on Sunday, most of the swaying and singing had subsided at the Upper Room Church of God in Christ in Raleigh, N.C., and the Rev. Patrick L. Wooden began his sermon. He talked about how the powerful Amaziah tried to intimidate the humble Amos, who warned of the impending doom of Israel. “The people didn’t like [Amos’s] preaching,” Wooden told the 1,600 congregants in attendance. He saw a parable for modern times. “We’ve got a sitting president who supports same-sex marriage, who never met an abortion law he didn’t love,” Wooden
President Obama and Mitt Romney rallied deep into Sunday night and will resume their foray into battleground states Monday morning with Election Day now just hours away. Romney closed the weekend with stops in Pennsylvania and Virginia, battleground states considered critical in the quest for the 270 electoral votes it takes to win the White House. (Snip) A poll released Sunday in The Pittsburgh Tribune shows the race for state’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in the final week. The president's team called the Pennsylvania move a "Hail Mary" and a sign Romney still doesn't have a
Washington - Massachusetts’s Democratic Governor Deval Patrick and Virginia’s Republican Governor Bob McDonnell both insist their party’s nominee will win the presidency. In three days, one of them will be proved wrong. (Snip) McDonnell predicted Republican Mitt Romney will carry Virginia and win the presidency by a “razor-thin” margin on Nov. 6. Republicans have a better “ground game” in the state this year than in 2008, he said. “Turnout and enthusiasm means that we win by a couple of points” in Virginia, McDonnell said in a separate “Political Capital” interview.
Washington - Mitt Romney says Barack Obama’s policies will consign the U.S. to an extended period of sluggish economic growth, at best. The president says his Republican challenger’s plans will sow the seeds of another mammoth recession. Both are wrong. No matter who wins the election tomorrow, the economy is on course to enjoy faster growth in the next four years as the headwinds that have held it back turn into tailwinds. Consumers are spending more and saving less after reducing household debt to the lowest since 2003. Home prices are rebounding after falling more than 30 percent from